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5 reasons why McCain has pulled ahead
Politico ^ | 9/14/08 | Mikey_1962

Posted on 09/14/2008 5:27:17 AM PDT by Mikey_1962

John McCain’s surge in the polls comes even as Barack Obama has inherited the most favorable Democratic environment since the Watergate era—an unpopular Republican president, an unpopular war and a flagging economy.

Suddenly, though, Democrats have found themselves in a world turned upside down, where Republicans have the momentum from running on change—and the latest wunderkind of presidential politics.

Below are five trends showing up in polling that help explain the change.

1. McCain as a ‘change agent’

Eight in ten Americans say they believe the country is on the wrong track. Obama has built his campaign on the perception that he is both the personification of change and the man to enact it.

2. The center shifts: Independents move to McCain

Independent voters, and particularly white independent men, have leaned Republican in presidential races since 1980. But before the Republican convention, Galllup polling showed just 40 percent of independents favoring McCain.

3. The economic gap narrows

James Carville, who coined the catchphrase “the economy, stupid” in 1992 while working as a strategist for Bill Clinton, frets that Obama is losing his ownership of the issue that has become voters’ foremost concern in recent months.

4. Palin narrows the enthusiasm gap

The Republican base, once disenchanted, has returned with a vengeance since McCain’s surprise pick of the first-term Alaska governor as his running mate.

5. Democrats voter ID edge dulls

Democrats have been relying on their newfound advantage in party identification all year. Party ID remains the best single indicator of voter support.

(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Society
KEYWORDS: electionpresident; mccainpalin
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To: Mikey_1962

from Politico: “While Democrats have continued to hit at Palin’s inexperience, only 36 percent of likely voters believe Palin lacks the proper experience while 47 percent said the same of Obama.”

***

Hallelujah!
47% get it.

That is a BIG headstart.


21 posted on 09/14/2008 6:41:46 AM PDT by Eleutherios (The All-American Team vs. The Teleprompter Kid)
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To: Mikey_1962

from Politico:
“The week before the Republican convention, just 39 percent of voters said they leaned toward or identified themselves as Republicans. Following the convention, that number rose dramatically to 47 percent, Meanwhile the percentage of voters leaning toward or identifying themselves as Democrats dropped from 53 to 47 percent.”

***
If such an exact statistical tie is even
reasonably close to correct ...
that should add 4 or 5 points to all McCain numbers
in polls that weight for party ID - that is, ALL of them.


22 posted on 09/14/2008 6:47:27 AM PDT by Eleutherios (The All-American Team vs. The Teleprompter Kid)
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To: nhwingut

“4. McCain’s speech (more effective than most think)”

It was very good. It was very sincere and moving. We are electing a president, not orator in chief. I think that speech probably played much better on TV than in the hall.


23 posted on 09/14/2008 6:57:19 AM PDT by jocon307 (The Silent Majority - now backing McCain/Palin!)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

Of course, there is always the Sarah Palin factor to consider as well.


24 posted on 09/14/2008 7:38:16 AM PDT by IGOTMINE (1911s FOREVER!)
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To: IGOTMINE

You’re right, I may have overlooked that.


25 posted on 09/14/2008 7:43:35 AM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (Chicken counting time starts Nov. 5.)
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To: Mikey_1962
Make no mistake.. John McLaim is merely WINDOW DRESSING to Sara Palin....
Nobody likes John McLAim.. the arch weasle of Washington D.C..
26 posted on 09/14/2008 8:00:35 AM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole....)
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To: nhwingut
5. Obama being exposed for who he is (chitown thug)

And the worst problem is that he's probably not in the really "inner circle" of the the closest friends of Mayor Richard M. Daley, either. I probably think even Mayor Daley is starting to realize that The Zero lacks enough real governmental executive experience and could be quietly telling his closest friends to pull back on support for Senator Obama, because the campaign is threatening to turn into a money sinkhole.

27 posted on 09/14/2008 8:46:12 AM PDT by RayChuang88
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To: Mikey_1962

They got it wrong. It’s:

1-Palin
2-Palin
3-Palin
4-Palin
5-Palin


28 posted on 09/14/2008 9:16:21 AM PDT by ViLaLuz (2 Chronicles 7:14)
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To: Mikey_1962

They firgot to include the do-nothing congress and senate. With leaders like Nany Pelosi and Harry Reid, the Democrats ought to be really, really scared.

If the GOP cannot raise up a serious energy agenda and hammer it home for the next 7 weeks, then they deserve to lose seats in the senate and house. The time is NOW for the GOP to show some leadership on the energy issue. Many voters are aware of “drill here, drill now”, but are not yet connecting it with the GOP. It needs to be done!


29 posted on 09/14/2008 9:57:02 AM PDT by Gumdrop
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
Very good post.

I believe there is one simple reason above all others for McCain's surge in the polls. There are many white Americans -- mostly middle-class voters who would consider themselves Democrats -- who never had any intention of voting for Obama. The introduction of Sarah Palin to the McCain ticket gave them a reason to get enthusiastic about the GOP this year in a way that doesn't require them to admit in public that they loathe the thought of turning the White House over to a radical, semi-black guy with a Muslim-sounding name.

30 posted on 09/14/2008 11:15:31 AM PDT by Alberta's Child (I'm out on the outskirts of nowhere . . . with ghosts on my trail, chasing me there.)
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To: Alberta's Child

I disagree. On balance, I think Obama’s race is a net plus for him. More white people, for whatever reason (moral vanity, posturing) would prefer a “black” (or even a half-black) over a white than would reject a candidate out of racial bias or prejudice.


31 posted on 09/15/2008 10:29:33 AM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (Chicken counting time starts Nov. 5.)
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