Sun Makes History: First Spotless Month in a Century [possible mini-ice age]

Daily Tech ^ | September 1, 2008 8:11 AM | Michael Asher

[DBCJR]

The record-setting surface of the sun. A full month has gone by without a single spot (Source: Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO))

The sun has reached a milestone not seen for nearly 100 years: an entire month has passed without a single visible sunspot being noted.

The event is significant as many climatologists now believe solar magnetic activity – which determines the number of sunspots -- is an influencing factor for climate on earth.

According to data from Mount Wilson Observatory, UCLA, more than an entire month has passed without a spot. The last time such an event occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot data has been collected since 1749.

When the sun is active, it's not uncommon to see sunspot numbers of 100 or more in a single month. Every 11 years, activity slows, and numbers briefly drop to near-zero. Normally sunspots return very quickly, as a new cycle begins.

But this year -- which corresponds to the start of Solar Cycle 24 -- has been extraordinarily long and quiet, with the first seven months averaging a sunspot number of only 3. August followed with none at all. The astonishing rapid drop of the past year has defied predictions, and caught nearly all astronomers by surprise.

In 2005, a pair of astronomers from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson attempted to publish a paper in the journal Science. The pair looked at minute spectroscopic and magnetic changes in the sun. By extrapolating forward, they reached the startling result that, within 10 years, sunspots would vanish entirely. At the time, the sun was very active. Most of their peers laughed at what they considered an unsubstantiated conclusion.

The journal ultimately rejected the paper as being too controversial.

The paper's lead author, William Livingston, tells DailyTech that, while the refusal may have been justified at the time, recent data fits his theory well. He says he will be "secretly pleased" if his predictions come to pass.

But will the rest of us? In the past 1000 years, three previous such events -- the Dalton, Maunder, and Spörer Minimums, have all led to rapid cooling. One was large enough to be called a "mini ice age". For a society dependent on agriculture, cold is more damaging than heat. The growing season shortens, yields drop, and the occurrence of crop-destroying frosts increases.

Meteorologist Anthony Watts, who runs a climate data auditing site, tells DailyTech the sunspot numbers are another indication the "sun's dynamo" is idling. According to Watts, the effect of sunspots on TSI (total solar irradiance) is negligible, but the reduction in the solar magnetosphere affects cloud formation here on Earth, which in turn modulates climate.

This theory was originally proposed by physicist Henrik Svensmark, who has published a number of scientific papers on the subject. Last year Svensmark's "SKY" experiment claimed to have proven that galactic cosmic rays -- which the sun's magnetic field partially shields the Earth from -- increase the formation of molecular clusters that promote cloud growth. Svensmark, who recently published a book on the theory, says the relationship is a larger factor in climate change than greenhouse gases.

Solar physicist Ilya Usoskin of the University of Oulu, Finland, tells DailyTech the correlation between cosmic rays and terrestrial cloud cover is more complex than "more rays equals more clouds". Usoskin, who notes the sun has been more active since 1940 than at any point in the past 11 centuries, says the effects are most important at certain latitudes and altitudes which control climate. He says the relationship needs more study before we can understand it fully.

Other researchers have proposed solar effects on other terrestrial processes besides cloud formation. The sunspot cycle has strong effects on irradiance in certain wavelengths such as the far ultraviolet, which affects ozone production. Natural production of isotopes such as C-14 is also tied to solar activity. The overall effects on climate are still poorly understood.

What is incontrovertible, though, is that ice ages have occurred before. And no scientist, even the most skeptical, is prepared to say it won't happen again.

Article Update, Sep 1 2008. After this story was published, the NOAA reversed their previous decision on a tiny speck seen Aug 21, which gives their version of the August data a half-point. Other observation centers such as Mount Wilson Observatory are still reporting a spotless month. So depending on

[SunkenCiv]

Good, but where’s your up parka? /rimshot

[CholeraJoe]

Who needs a parka if the temperature goes up?

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

Much as I hate the cold

I'm in Florida, so a little cooling will be fine!

[cogitator]

What's Wrong with the Sun? (Nothing)

"Another way to examine the length and depth of a solar minimum is by counting spotless days. A "spotless day" is a day with no sunspots. Spotless days never happen during Solar Max but they are the "meat and potatoes" of solar minima.

Adding up every daily blank sun for the past three years, we find that the current solar minimum has had 362 spotless days (as of June 30, 2008). Compare that value to the total spotless days of the previous ten solar minima: 309, 273, 272, 227, 446, 269, 568, 534, ~1019 and ~931. The current count of 362 spotless days is not even close to the longest."

Examine the graphic below from the article comparing this minimum to the 1933 minimum.

Orange bars represent the number of spotless days per month. The ongoing solar minimum needs to accumulate another 206 spotless days before it matches the duration of the 1933 minimum, which is considered unremarkable by solar historians.

[fella]

And today here in North Texas it is unusually cool for the first part of September. How about where your at?

[steelyourfaith]





Beam me to Planet Gore !


[PistolPaknMama]

More frantic action is called for by the global warming scammers

Most likely the screaming greenies will claim that warming on earth made the sunspots disappear.

[SunkenCiv]

Yeah, that’ll happen. I can’t remember if I’ve had that experience with double topics, but I’ve had a post go out doubly, plenty of times, most embarrassing when it’s to one of the ping lists. And each time I swear I don’t know how it happens. Somehow I or my browser or something makes that button go down twice. :’)

[HeartlandOfAmerica]

Anthropogenic Solar Cooling?

ASC anyone?

[DBCJR]

Yes, Anthropogenic Solar Cooling, man made-up solar cooling, like Goregenic Global Warming or Goregenic Internet Origins.

[DBCJR]

Maybe I should say anthrodelusional.

[palmer]

Orange bars represent the number of spotless days per month. The ongoing solar minimum needs to accumulate another 206 spotless days before it matches the duration of the 1933 minimum, which is considered unremarkable by solar historians.

Since you made your "unremarkable" remark, the sun has accumulated over 300 spotless days (out of 365 or so). It is remarkable now wouldn't you say? There's a theory that blames the lack of spots on solar system center of gravity changes (Jupiter's orbit is 11 years like the normal SS cycle). The other planets would have lesser effects, but I suppose they could enhance each other some way. But what is the effect back on earth?

My unpublished theory is that the solar minimum causes enhancements of nonlinearities in the magnetosphere (explained here http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=16797882) which in turn causes large scale gravity waves (see here http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V3S-4019K4R-RG&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1009542625&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=c22eee69b245f3f576b0458ac5d8aceb)

The large scale gravity waves interact on a small scale with the weather-caused gravity waves to cause even more weather extremes (for example Gravity Waves Make Tornados[sic]) which is often cooling due to concentration of water vapor. Diffuse water vapor is warming, but concentrated water vapor is more neutral (even with warming) and often it is cooling (e.g. subsidence around hurricanes).

I could be wrong, the theory is incomplete and other solar factors could have greater influences.

[cogitator]

Since you made your "unremarkable" remark, the sun has accumulated over 300 spotless days (out of 365 or so). It is remarkable now wouldn't you say?

It's getting there. I guess I'd have to consider myself pretty lucky (along with the other billions of people living on Earth) to witness the beginning of a solar regime shift -- if that's what is happening. I hate to say something so trite as "we'll probably know in a year", but I think we're going to know a lot more in a year. I'm also REAL curious about what's going to happen in the Pacific Ocean over the next 8-10 months.

Did you see this? (I suspect you have.)

Are sunspots disappearing?

It's nice of you to share your theory, by the way, but my only comment would be that I think you'll have a lot of work to do to support it. That doesn't mean it's wrong; good luck.

[cogitator]

Since you made your "unremarkable" remark, the sun has accumulated over 300 spotless days (out of 365 or so). It is remarkable now wouldn't you say?

It's getting there. I guess I'd have to consider myself pretty lucky (along with the other billions of people living on Earth) to witness the beginning of a solar regime shift -- if that's what is happening. I hate to say something so trite as "we'll probably know in a year", but I think we're going to know a lot more in a year. I'm also REAL curious about what's going to happen in the Pacific Ocean over the next 8-10 months.

Did you see this? (I suspect you have.)

Are sunspots disappearing?

It's nice of you to share your theory, by the way, but my only comment would be that I think you'll have a lot of work to do to support it. That doesn't mean it's wrong; good luck.