TS Gustav & TS Hanna

NOAA/NHC ^ | August 28, 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

The 2008 peak of hurricane season is ramping up with Gustav and Hanna. The two storms pose threats to the U.S. At least 22 deaths in Hispanola are attributed to Gustav to date, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica. Tropical Storm Hanna has formed in the Atlantic.

Gustav	Hanna
Visible Satellite Image Loop Infrared Satellite Image Loop	Visible Image Loop Infrared Image Loop
WV Satellite Image Loop	WV Image Loop
Public Advisory	Public Advisory
Discussion	Discussion
Buoy Data: Western Caribbean                   FL and East GOM                   Western GOM	East Caribbean West Atlantic Florida

Forecast Models

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[lainie]

Gotcha. Thanks for the reply. Sounds like they’re not sure whether the landfall will slow him down, no matter where he makes it.

[NautiNurse]

Very good news. Bring reading materials, flashlight(s), extra batteries to the shelter. Do you need to bring your own bed linens?

[SouthTexas]

That’s a good thing. There were several in the Brownsville area that stayed open.

[fatima]

(((Hugs))) That sounds like a plan.

[Amelia]

bookmark

[CindyDawg]

We had people coming in for the storm!

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 29, 2008

...Center of Gustav moving through the Cayman Islands...

at 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the
central Cuban provinces of Matanzas...Cienfuegos...and Villa Clara.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

At 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
for the lower Florida Keys west of Key West to the Dry Tortugas. A
Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands...and
for the western Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud...Pinar del
Rio...la Habana...and Ciudad de la Habana. Preparations to protect
life and property in the Hurricane Warning area should be rushed to
completion.

At 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued
for the Cuban province of Granma. A Tropical Storm Warning remains
in effect for Jamaica...and for the central Cuban provinces of
Matanzas...Cienfuegos...Villa Clara...Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de
Avila...and Camaguey.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the lower Florida Keys
west of the Seven Mile Bridge to Key West.

Interests in the Gulf of Mexico and the northern Gulf Coast should
closely monitor the progress of Gustav.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Gustav was located
near latitude 19.5 north...longitude 80.4 west or about 25 miles...
40 km...west southwest of Little Cayman island. This position is
also about 55 miles...85 km...east-northeast of Grand Cayman and
about 330 miles...530 km...east-southeast of the western tip of
Cuba.

Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of
days. On this track...the center of Gustav will pass near or
over the Cayman Islands tonight...over the western portions of Cuba
on Saturday...and into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday
night or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Gustav is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Strengthening is forecast during the next two days...and
Gustave could become a major hurricane as it approaches western
Cuba.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160
miles...260 km.

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central
pressure of 974 mb...28.76 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 5 feet above normal tide levels
is possible in the Cayman Islands...with 14 to 19 feet possible near
where the center of Gustav crosses western Cuba...including Isla de
Juventud.

Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to
12 inches across the Cayman Islands...and central and western
Cuba...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches possible.
These rains will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides. The rainfall threat will be diminishing across Jamaica
and eastern Cuba tonight. Precipitation from Gustav may begin to
affect the Florida Keys and South Florida during Saturday.

Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...19.5 N...80.4 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds...80 mph.
Minimum central pressure...974 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[raygun]

From early Tue through midnight Thur, the entire Bahama Island chain (from Turk Island to Grand Bahama) can expect an average of 0.25 to 0.50” rain / hr for the duration. By Thursday morning, the entire Florida penninsula from Jacksonville to Miami can expect about 0.30” rainfall for at least 12 hours. Hover, Miami to West Palm Beach will receive more rain in total than further north (it’ll be raining in that area longer.)

Its too early to tell the track yet, but its entirely possible that Georgia’s drought (at least S GA) may be a thing of the past. All of the regional reseviors may just come up to normal levels rather quickly.

With respect to Gustov, I’m guessing the whole state of LA, and an area bounded by Shreveport-Dallas-OK City, Ouachita Mtn region, over to Pine Bluff and then SE to Greenville should be prepared for at least 4” to 6” rainfall total before everything is all said & done (all of LA, Texarkana, E TX area should be expecting every bit of 6”).

[lonestar]

I think we will be evacuated tomorrow. My mother has to go by ambulance.

We were a host town until Rita but now people are asked to go farther north.

People who stayed for Rita are the first getting out of town.

We are about 70 inland. Water isn't a problem but high winds and trees don't mix.

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the lower Florida Keys
west of Key West to the Dry Tortugas.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the lower Florida Keys
west of the Seven Mile Bridge to Key West.

Gustav winds 80 mph. Pressure 974 mb. Moving NW at 10 mph.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160
miles.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[SouthTexas]

I saw that. Have talked to some over the years that just want to experience one, others even thought it would be good for business. They just don’t get it.

We had rain this morning, about 1.5 to 2”. Did you get any?

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for the local update. Good info.

[proudofthesouth]

I pray that you, your baby and everyone else stays safe. I’m relieved to read that you are going to a shelter.

[CindyDawg]

Not much today. I wonder how many of the rooms are booked by media and storm chasers though. I don’t care as long as they know the risks and don’t expect others to risk injury getting them out of a jam.

[txhurl]

Y’all come help me out on the ‘Cuda thread (Palin)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2070969/posts?page=6

[CindyDawg]

I’ve been lurking:’) Talked to a really riled Obama supporter today.

[SouthTexas]

Agreed. I think most storm chasers clearly understand the dangers they are walking in to. The media and the tourists are another story. Of course, the hotel managers are only looking at the bottom line.

[Old Professer]

Remember earlier when I said that some of the forecasters were going so far as to sound like cheerleaders, well I just went to Jeff Masters blog and copied this off from his 4P.M. blog:

“It’s time to leave New Orleans

Today is the 3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s catastrophic hit on the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast. Unfortunately, I think that people living in New Orleans should mark the anniversary of Katrina by getting the heck out of the city. You live at the bottom of a bowl, much of it below sea level. While New Orleans must exist where it is, this is not natural. Nature wants to fill up this bowl with huge quantities of Gulf of Mexico sea water. There is a storm capable of doing that bearing down on you. If you live in New Orleans, I suggest you take a little Labor Day holiday—sooner, rather than later, to beat the rush—and get out of town.

Gustav is going to come close to you, and there’s no sense messing with a major hurricane capable of pushing a Category 3 storm surge to your doorstep. Don’t test those Category 3 rated—but untested—levees. Conventional pre-Katrina wisdom suggested that the city needed 72 hours to evacuate.

With the population about half of the pre-Katrina population, that lead time is about 60 hours. With Gustav likely to bring tropical storm force winds to the city by Monday afternoon, that means that tonight is a good time to start evacuating—Saturday morning at the latest. Voluntary evacuations have already begun, which is a good idea.”

(Pagination mine)

Where’s the reportorial distance; does it even exist anymore?

Gustav is up to a Cat1 and moving at 10mph on a NW course with about 1200 miles to New Orleans that we can see on many sites, since when do we need to establish a football pool based on human risk to hype up mundane maunderings such as this?

[CindyDawg]

SPI is a bottom line!

[SouthTexas]

LOL

Port A is quickly turning that way and that was the only thought ever, on NPI.