Posted on 08/25/2008 8:27:52 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Depression 7 has formed in the eastern Caribbean.
Buoy Data:
East Caribbean Buoys
West Caribbean Buoys
Florida Buoys
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
http://www.wafb.com/Global/story.asp?S=8908841
Bobby already pulled the trigger,,,
Too late for Da’Mayor to do anything but get in the way,,,
I look for O’Bammy to come to NOLA for the photo-op with
the other POS,,,
I saw 3 Blackhawks heading south today,,,
Some folks are already leaving the NOLA area(local AM radio)
The Smart Ones...
p.s. I was raised in Charlotte too.
I think Gustav will still start kicking it up soon, and may already be in the process recently.. The land interaction has just been a little trickier than expected. Hispaniola does weird things to storms.
Governor Bobby Jindal Declares Pre-Storm State Of Emergency
BATON ROUGE -- Gov. Bobby Jindal declared a pre-storm state of emergency this afternoon, announcing the mobilization of 3,000 National Guard with as many 5,000 call-ups possible depending on the course of Hurricane Gustav.
Jindal also has asked for a federal state of emergency, a request that has not yet been answered.
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2008
...Gustav now moving west-southwestward...
At 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti north
of Port au Prince is discontinued. A Tropical Storm Warning
remains in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti west of
the border with the Dominican Republic and Port au Prince.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for
Jamaica.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Cuba for the provinces of
Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...and Granma.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las
Tunas and Holguin and all of the Cayman Islands.
Interests in central and western Cuba should closely monitor the
progress of Gustav.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was
located near latitude 18.8 north...longitude 75.4 west or about 205
miles...325 km...west of Port au Prince Haiti and about 100 miles...
155 km...south of Guantanamo Cuba.
Gustav is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr.
Gustav is expected to turn to the west tomorrow and to the
west-northwest on Friday. The center of Gustav is expected to pass
very close to Jamaica tomorrow.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Slow restrengthening is forecast over the next 48 hours and
Gustav could regain hurricane strength by Friday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.
Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to
12 inches over Haiti...eastern Cuba...Jamaica...and the Cayman
Islands...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches
possible. These rains will likely produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected in areas of onshore winds in the Tropical Storm
Warning area.
Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...18.8 N...75.4 W. Movement
toward...west-southwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45
mph. Minimum central pressure...999 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Franklin
Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Number 12
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2008
the last reconnaissance fix was at 23z. Data from the aircraft
indicated that the center of Gustav began to move west-
southwestward and away from the deep convection. Peak flight-level
winds were 39 kt and the highest recent believable SFMR winds were
41 kt. The advisory intensity is lowered to 40 kt based on these
observations.
The initial motion is now estimated to be 250/7...although the
center has been very hard to track since the time of the last fix
and might be a little south of my advisory position. A deep-layer
ridge...oriented northeast-southwest...is centered over the Florida
Peninsula. This ridge has imparted a bit of a southerly component
of motion that some models show persisting for another 24 hours or
so. After that...Gustav is expected to round the periphery of the
ridge and turn to the northwest in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Complicating the forecast in the latter part of the period is the
evolution and impact of an upper-level trough expected to be in the
central or western Gulf of Mexico...as well as the development of a
blocking high at the end of the period reminiscent of what happened
with Fay a week or so ago. Given these factors...the model guidance
is in surprisingly good agreement. The official forecast relies
most strongly on a blend of the ECMWF...UKMET...GFDL...and
GFS...which is now following the vortex fairly well...and is just
to the left of the previous advisory track. The dynamical model
consensus is a little farther to the left.
Gustav has been significantly disprupted by its encounter with the
terrain of Haiti. In addition...mid-level dry air appears to be
overtaking the cyclone from the northeast. In another 24-36
hours...however...Gustav should find itself under an upper
anticyclone and over the very deep warm waters of the northwestern
Caribbean...and so the cyclone should have an opportunity to
restrengthen. In addition...the forecast track takes Gustav over
The Loop current in the southeastern Gulf. After that...global
models suggest the possibility of southwesterly shear in the Gulf
associated with the upper trough that could slow the
intensification rate. The official forecast shows a slower
restrengthening than the previous advisory initially...but is
otherwise similar...and roughly splits the difference between the
SHIPS and GFDL guidance.
It probably wouldn’t Hurt to remind everyone that the average 5-day
official track error is about 300 miles...and the average 5-day
intensity error is about 25 mph.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 28/0300z 18.8n 75.4w 40 kt
12hr VT 28/1200z 18.8n 76.5w 45 kt
24hr VT 29/0000z 18.9n 78.0w 50 kt
36hr VT 29/1200z 19.4n 79.5w 60 kt
48hr VT 30/0000z 20.1n 81.0w 70 kt
72hr VT 31/0000z 22.5n 84.5w 85 kt
96hr VT 01/0000z 26.0n 87.5w 95 kt
120hr VT 02/0000z 29.0n 89.5w 95 kt
$$
forecaster Franklin
Where did you go to high school? I graduated from Olympic in '76.
I am confused, is there another storm circulating just NW of 95? Looks like everything is growing tonight.
Not sure why they went ahead and dropped intensity to 95kt in later periods.... sure the storm is hurting (or was — it seems to be springing to life now), but the public looks at a cat 2 differently than a cat 3 in many cases. It’s clear the potential is still there for a major hurricane and I believe it’s still highly likely that it will happen, hopefully a package like this doesn’t cause anyone to let their guard down.
TANKS,Blam,,,
I missed that one,,,
Good on Bobby...
This one?
Possible tropical cyclone next 36-48 hours (20N 55W northeast of Leeward Islands)
Contracts for buses activated, 3,000 national guard members put on notice for possible hurricane strike
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Governor Bobby Jindal has declared a 'state of emergency' and released a possible timetable for Louisiana's response to the threat of a hurricane striking the state.
Jindal says he has activated contracts for 700 busses that would be used to evacuate as many as 30,000 people from the New Orleans area, and that those buses, located within a 500 mile radius of the city will begin arriving tomorrow.
He has also sent notice to 3,000 members of the National Guard that their services may be required.
Additionally, he has asked FEMA to arrange to have 300 ambulances sent to the area to transport hospital patients and nursing home residents. A phased evacuation of prisoners and residents with special needs, could begin on Friday.
Jindal says the plan may change, but as of now 'contra-flow' out of New Orleans may begin as early as Saturday and that staging of search and rescue teams by the Department of Wildlife and Fisheries may begin Sunday.
The latest prediction from the National Hurricane Center indicates Gustav could become a Category 3 hurricane that could threaten southeast Louisiana on Monday morning.
[finally someone with a plan, willing to use it]
The governor could operate a plan flawlessly and the media would still launch an assault of lies and deceit to make Jindal look feckless ... the media uses the misfortunes of others to empower the demonspawn democrap party. PERIOD. But perhaps AMericans will see through the net how a man of competence handles things in contrast to the democrap governor he replaced! Is chocolate man still mayor of NO?
NO ever get their levees fixed?
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on August 28, 2008
...Reconnaissance plane approaching Gustav...still moving
west-southwest...
at 2 am EDT...0600 UTC...the government of Cuba has replaced the
Hurricane Warning for the province of Granma with a Tropical Storm
Warning. All other hurricane watches and warnings have been
discontinued for Cuba.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the southwestern
peninsula of Haiti west of the border with the Dominican Republic
and Port au Prince.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
Jamaica.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all the Cayman Islands.
Interests in central and western Cuba should closely monitor the
progress of Gustav.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 200 am EDT...0600z...the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was
estimated near latitude 18.5 north...longitude 75.7 west or about 80
miles...130 km...east-northeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 105
miles...165 km...south-southwest of Guantanamo Cuba.
Gustav is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr.
Gustav is expected to turn to the west later today and to the west-
northwest on Friday. The center of Gustav is expected to pass very
close to Jamaica later today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Slow restrengthening is forecast over the next 48 hours and
Gustav could regain hurricane strength by Friday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.
Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to
12 inches over Haiti...eastern Cuba...Jamaica...and the Cayman
Islands...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches
possible. These rains will likely produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected in areas of onshore winds in the Tropical Storm
Warning area.
Repeating the 200 am EDT position...18.5 N...75.7 W. Movement
toward...west-southwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45
mph. Minimum central pressure...999 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Avila
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