Posted on 07/20/2008 8:36:53 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Newly formed Tropical Storm Dolly over the NW Caribbean Sea near 18.4N 84.2W. 1008 MB at 11AM this morning. Max sustained winds 40KT, gusts 50KT, moving NW at 15KT.
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Jim Cantore has surfaced at Port Aransas, TX - black t-shirt and all.
He's a tad further north than I would have expected.
He’s still got time to go south to Brownsville, if need be. Wonder how many of those black t-shirts he has? Betcha his closet’s full of them, lol.
/s
Calm before the storm.
Everything is looking south this morning, about the same as last night. Of course, subject to change at a moments notice. :)
Crude is falling a bit this morning.
NHC is predicting a more NW track just prior to landfall. Even if Dolly’s eye makes landfall just south of the border, that still puts TX on the dirty side of the storm.
As long as she doesn’t start bouncing along the coast. ;)
OK, am I immagining again or has this storm started tracking due north? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
Try this Long Range Radar Loop-Brownsville
I am having problems loading the image for some reason. Earlier on the above link and on another I have open in another window sure looks like a due north mevement. If so this could get nasty.
The long range radar loop for Brownsville picks up the center of circulation; it appears to be WNW to NW movement.
It does look like it’s wanting to stay out over warm water turning north and still slightly west.
OK, just rebooted and stuff is downloading now, The IR floater I linked above shows a 6 hour movement, the brownsville one hour. Rock the IR immage, definite eye moving north.
Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on July 22, 2008
...Dolly nearing hurricane strength...
at 10 am CDT...1500 UTC...the Hurricane Warning from north of Corpus
Christi to Port O’Connor has been replaced with a Tropical Storm
Warning. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the coast of
Texas from Brownsville to Corpus Christi...and for the northeast
coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the border
between Mexico and the United States. A Hurricane Warning means
that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from north of Corpus
Christi to San Luis Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect from La
Pesca to south of Rio San Fernando. A Hurricane Watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1000 am CDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 24.0 north...longitude 94.5 west or about 230
miles...370 km...southeast of Brownsville Texas.
Dolly is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr. A
general northwest to west-northwest track is expected during the
enxt 24 hours. This motion would bring the core of Dolly near
northeastern Mexico or extreme southern Texas on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph...110
km/hr...with higher gusts. Dolly is expected to become a hurricane
later today or Wednesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 km
from the center.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by a NOAA hurricane
hunter plane was 991 mb...29.26 inches.
Dolly is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches...with isolated amounts of 15 inches...over much of south
Texas and northeastern Mexico over the next few days.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Repeating the 1000 am CDT position...24.0 N...94.5 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70 mph.
Minimum central pressure...991 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 100 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 400
PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila
looks nw to me, you’re seeing more n then w?
The Hurricane Warning from north of Corpus Christi to Port
O'Connor has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the coast of Texas
from Brownsville to Corpus Christi...
Movement toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...70 mph. Minimum central pressure...991 mb.
So it did jump north since the 7 am statement, quite a bit since last night, thanks.
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