Posted on 07/20/2008 8:36:53 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Newly formed Tropical Storm Dolly over the NW Caribbean Sea near 18.4N 84.2W. 1008 MB at 11AM this morning. Max sustained winds 40KT, gusts 50KT, moving NW at 15KT.
The update graphic that you posted is one of the betweeners - all they do is update the center position, they don’t adjust the cone - the cone is adjusted every 6 hours, on the 3 hour mark they adjust the position.
~~~
Well,,,That center(TS) was just off Cancun,where it is
shown,,,tracking NNW at the time,,,the next green dot(8am)
seemed to me to be incorrect,,,
Sure looked like the rotation was offshore,,,
(Dvorak IR Image - Loop Water Vapor Image - Loop)
Just learnin’...;0)
As you figured, oil jumped this morning.
~~~
I was hopin’ I would be wrong,,,
Looks like Dolly is takin’ that left turn...
Dolly expected to strengthen over the western Gulf...
a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Rio San Fernando Mexico
northward...across the border between Mexico and the United
States...and along the Texas coast to Port O’Connor. A Hurricane
Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the coast of Mexico from La
Pesca northward to south of Rio San Fernando...and for the Texas
coast from north of Port O’Connor to San Luis Pass. A tropical
storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Warnings will likely be required for portions of the watch areas
later tonight.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 400 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 23.1 north...longitude 91.2 west or about 420
miles...680 km...east-southeast of the coast of the lower Rio
Grande Valley of south Texas and northeastern Mexico.
Dolly is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr. A
general west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
couple of days...with a gradual decrease in forward speed. On this
track...the center of Dolly will be moving over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday...and will be near the western
Gulf of Mexico coast by Wednesday.
Reports from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast...and Dolly is forecast to
become a hurricane within the next day or two before reaching the
western Gulf of Mexico coast.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 1004 mb...29.65 inches.
Dolly is expected to produce total rain accumulations of two to four
inches across the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico with
isolated maximum amounts up to six inches.
Repeating the 400 PM CDT position...23.1 N...91.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50
mph. Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 700 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1000
PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
the structure of Dolly appears to be undergoing very gradual
changes. The outermost convective bands have been weakening
today...while convection has been slowly on the increase near the
circulation center. The radius of maximum winds is now much
smaller...as determined from stepped-frequency microwave radiometer
data that recently indicated a maximum surface wind of 45 kt about
45 N mi northeast of the center. Dolly is headed toward a relative
maximum in ocean heat content...and it is beneath a large
upper-level anticyclone that covers nearly the entire Gulf of
Mexico. It seems to be taking a while...however...for an inner
core to begin to take shape...so it is rather uncertain how much
Dolly will take advantage of its environment. All of the intensity
models forecast an upward intensity trend until final
landfall...but they do not agree on the amount of strengthening.
The SHIPS and lgem models forecast about 65 kt in 48 hours...while
the GFDL is a little higher at 75-80 kt. Since the environment
appears so conducive for strengthening...the official forecast
again leans toward the higher GFDL solution. Another complication
in the intensity forecast is not knowing exactly how fast Dolly
will reach the coast. If it makes landfall sooner than the
official track indicates...it might run out of time to reach the
official forecast peak intensity. But if the opposite
occurs...Dolly would have a little more time over the warm waters.
Dolly continues to move quickly...and the initial motion estimate
remains 300/16. While it is a little unnerving to observe this fast
motion and forecast the center of Dolly to take a couple of days to
reach the coast...all of the dynamical models insist that the
forward speed will be about half its current value by tomorrow
night. The models agree surprisingly well on the slow-down...so
the official track forecast...in terms of forward speed...is right
in line with the model consensus. The models do not go inland in
exactly the same locations...however. The GFS and UKMET forecast
Dolly to cross the coast of northeastern Mexico...while the GFDL
and HWRF tracks go into southern Texas. The official track
forecast is a little north of the consensus...giving respect to the
agreement between the NWS hurricane models...the GFDL and HWRF.
This new track is not meaningfully different than the previous
one...except to be a little faster. It is again important to
emphasize that...with reliable models on both sides of the official
track...one should not focus on the exact landfall location implied
by the official track.
Warnings will likely be required for portions of the hurricane and
tropical storm watch areas later tonight.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 21/2100z 23.1n 91.2w 45 kt
12hr VT 22/0600z 24.0n 93.0w 55 kt
24hr VT 22/1800z 24.9n 94.9w 60 kt
36hr VT 23/0600z 25.8n 96.1w 70 kt
48hr VT 23/1800z 26.4n 97.3w 75 kt
72hr VT 24/1800z 27.0n 99.5w 40 kt...inland
96hr VT 25/1800z...dissipated
$$
forecaster Knabb
US National Hurricane Center says Tropical Stormjust for a change of pace.
Genevieve has formed off Mexico's Pacific coast
Atlantic Floater 2
Dolly
Visible Image - Loop
~~~
Sure looks like an eye forming...
Morter, check out this loop:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
This storm could do a number of things. One is to barrel on the way it is and do relative little harm or, it could stall forward movement grow to a a cat 4 or 5 and change direction to the north. For instance, if it was to stall for as little as 36-48 hours, landfall and strength would be totaly unpredictable.
You might want to warn any dial uppers about that link in any further post, it is real neat but I would be cussing you if I had dial up.
WOW!,,,Waaay Kool!...;0)
bookmark
I agree... this is one of the largest, best structured Tropical Storms I’ve ever seen. If is slows down just a bit, and gets it’s act together, it could be a Cat 2 or 3 in very short order.
Looks like it’s already interacting with the pressure ridge over Mexico. That should slow it down, and probably veer it north a little... My bet right now is... Corpus Christi as a Cat 2.
If it stall..... look out!
True Dat,,,
Years ago ,IIRC, we had one sit in that general area and
built up to a CAT-3 or 4,,,
I don’t remember the name,,,
Bookmarked for later.
Dolly seems tracking straight for Houston here:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif
Hello Dolly!
Well, Hello Dolly!
It seems you're steering north of Mexico.
You're causing swells, Dolly,
I can tell Dolly,
You're still growing
You're still blowing,
You're still going strong.
We feel the boat swaying
And the surf's spraying,
While the dudes dash to the shore
for hangin' ten,
So...golly gee fellas,
Send her back out to sea, fellas,
Dolly just needs to blow away,
Dolly you're causing much dismay,
Dolly, won't you just fall apart today?
I’ve been hung up in jury duty all day.
Time to play catch up! (Well almost, not quite home yet.)
Cantori’s going to Corpus!
Austin forecast calls for high of 89 Thursday, down from 102 today: looks like we’re gonna get wet.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.