SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT(Dec. 10,, 2007)

National Hurricane Center ^ | Dec. 10, 2007 | National Hurricane Center

[varina davis]

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1030 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF PUERTO RICO REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED...BUT SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT DEVELOPED A CLOSED CIRCULATION YET. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND IS PRODUCING HEAVY SQUALLS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA... AND THE EASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$ FORECASTER AVILA

[varina davis]

09/2345 UTC 19.2N 58.3W T1.5/1.5 94L — Atlantic Ocean

Dvorak is on top of 94L

[varina davis]

1:05 a.m. Tropical Discussion update:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 370 NM EAST OF PUERTO RICO REMAINS
FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED...BUT SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT DEVELOPED A CLOSED
CIRCULATION YET. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT AND
IS PRODUCING HEAVY SQUALLS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...AND THE EASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
19N-21N BETWEEN 56W-61W. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT IN
THIS AREA. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL HAS MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM
SPREADING OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN TODAY.

[lewislynn]

Thought this was newsworthy since the 2007 Hurricane season officially "ended" Nov. 30.

Someone forgot to tell the weather patterns.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Please ping me to any future developments re: this particular storm. Some relatives are travelling to the Dominican Republic soon.

[BJungNan]

It would seem to me to be a lot better if they would make the hurricans go the other direction. Why do they always point them to the west?

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

Looky...

[Husker24]

Could make one heck of a snow storm if it enters the gulf and the moisture gets sucked up into the midwest.

[Robert A Cook PE]

Instructions to storm:

Go west.

Cross Cuba.

Turn NW.

Cross coast.

Dump rain.

[Atchafalaya]

You forgot Sean Penn!

[Uncle Ike]

bump for further developments

[NautiNurse]

1030 PM EST Sun Dec 9 2007 The area of disturbed weather associated with a broad area of low pressure centered about 425 miles east of Puerto Rico remains fairly well-organized...but satellite images and surface observations suggest that this system has not developed a closed circulation yet. This system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph and is producing heavy squalls with gale force winds to the north of the shower activity. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for some development and a tropical or subtropical storm could form during the next 24 hours. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands...the Virgin Islands...Puerto Rico...Hispaniola...and the eastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.

Per Jeff Masters (Wunderground):

None of the models develop the disturbance, but they do indicate that wind shear will remain near 20 knots through Monday night. This may allow 94L to stay organized enough to bring heavy rain and wind gusts up to 40 mph to Puerto Rico Monday night and on Tuesday morning to the eastern Dominican Republic. The disturbance is moving fast enough, about 20 mph, that the chances for serious flooding like Tropical Storm Noel brought to the region are low. By Tuesday, the models are showing an increase in wind shear to 30 knots, which should prevent further development. If there's anything left of 94L by Thursday, when it reaches the Western Caribbean, wind shear is expected to drop to 15 knots, and the system has a better chance of developing. I don't expect 94L will ever develop into a tropical storm, though.

[Amelia]

Mornin’, NN! I was just wondering why I hadn’t gotten a ping to this thread...you must have found it same time I did! :-)

[CindyDawg]

HMM. If at all possible it will get a name though.

[Shady]

OMG!!!! We are ALL GONNA DIE!!! AAAAGGHHHHHHH!
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

[ExSoldier]

Georgia could sure use a TS.

Having been thru about 15 Hurricanes including Andrew when it hit Miami in '92, I can only say that even with the South Florida drought that has impacted us so badly this year and last, I drew a huge sigh of relief when the season ended a few days ago without a strike.

Tropical storms don't just bring a lot of rain, they bring too much rain. More than the ground can absorb. The result is flooding that destroys property and lives. Don't forget the dead coastal storm surge that has a nasty habit of remaking the beaches in negative ways, not to mention the potential loss of life.

As the saying goes: Be careful what you wish for.

[theDentist]

Atmospheric Stuff happens (Karl Rove Machine in autodrive)

[GiovannaNicoletta]

I've been praying for rain for the south and for the drought to end.

Hopefully God will steer this one where it's needed.

[Sender]

I vote that Georgia runs a water pipe down the median of all these interstate highways to all those places that are flooded.

[PeteB570]

Thanks for the Ping.

Will be tracking.

[topher]

TD's can happen in non-tropical storm season.

A Cold Front can kill this TD because of WIND SHEAR.

There is a big difference between a TD (Tropical Disturbance) and a tropical storm.

This system has not organized and is not anywhere close to becoming a hurricane.

One problem for us is that it has only been in the last 40 years that things have been monitored this closely for weather problems -- satellites, computers, etc.

So it is unclear if this is unusual or not.

There is no list of TDs because they are such minimal weather systems...

It might be breaking news if it does organize into a well organized tropical storm (not even a hurricane).

But a North Easter is like a powerful tropical storm in Winter time -- with winds of 40 to 50 miles per hour...

The only difference with a North Easter is that it is a snow generator normally rather than a rain generator...