Posted on 12/02/2007 1:08:47 PM PST by diamond6
In the 10 years of the BCS era, we've seen pretty much everything.
Perhaps the only major development we've yet to see is a two-loss team in the BCS Championship Game. Later today, that one should become a reality.
The million-dollar question is: Which two-loss team will it be?
Jim Tressel has watched as other teams have helped Ohio State's title cause.
At least seven teams, including once-beaten Ohio State and Kansas, are likely to receive second-place votes in the polls. If the voters rank teams based on perceived strength (who would win on a neutral field), any number of championship game possibilities exist. But what if they vote on merit?
The Contenders It's always difficult to make assumptions when it comes to the BCS, but it would be shocking if Ohio State (11-1) didn't finish in the top two, and it would be fairly surprising if the Buckeyes weren't ranked No. 1. Here's a look at the teams in contention to face (presumably) OSU for all the marbles.
Immediately behind Ohio State in the current BCS standings are Georgia and Kansas, which failed to win their respective divisions in conference play. Some people might think this is no big deal because two teams in the BCS era have played for the national title without winning their conference championship. It should be pointed out, however, that neither of those teams -- Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003 -- was ranked in the top two of the polls at the end of the regular season, so neither would have played for the title under the current BCS formula.
Georgia (10-2) is at a further disadvantage because it plays in the SEC, which was won by LSU (11-2), and the Bulldogs don't have a head-to-head win over the Tigers to strengthen Dawgs' case against the big cats.
Kansas (11-1) will get consideration for being the only major-conference team other than Ohio State with fewer than two losses, but the Jayhawks don't have a single victory over a team that's even receiving votes in the AP poll.
Virginia Tech (11-2) at least has a conference championship on its résumé, but the Hokies also have a 41-point loss to LSU that's hard for voters to ignore. And the Tigers' two losses, for whatever it's worth, did come in triple overtime.
USC (10-2) won the Pac-10, but as fate would have it, the Trojans ended up with just two wins over teams with a winning record (Arizona State and Oregon State). Even if that doesn't hurt them in the polls, it certainly will hold them back in the computers in relation to the other two-loss teams.
Then there's Big 12 champion Oklahoma (11-2), which should make a late surge after a convincing win over No. 1 Missouri (a squad OU topped for the second time this season). But will it be enough to help the Sooners climb all the way from No. 9 into the BCS top two?
Based on the current standings and what each team accomplished this season, I expect it to be Ohio State vs. LSU in the Allstate BCS Championship Game on Jan. 7 in New Orleans.
But that's based simply on logic, which left this 2007 season many, many weeks ago.
Projecting the BCS Projecting the BCS matchups is as difficult as ever, thanks in large part to the uncertainty over which teams will be playing in the championship game. Using my prediction of Ohio State vs. LSU as a starting point, here's how I expect the rest of the BCS bowls to be filled. If any team other than LSU is playing the Buckeyes, you can throw all of this out the window.
Let's start with the natural tie-ins. Big 12 champion Oklahoma goes to the Fiesta Bowl, Pac-10 winner USC goes to the Rose Bowl, and ACC champ Virginia Tech goes to the Orange Bowl.
Assuming Ohio State is ranked No. 1, the first pick belongs to the Rose, which must replace the Buckeyes. Illinois, which will become eligible for an at-large spot by moving into the BCS top 14, is the logical pick to preserve the game's Big Ten vs. Pac-10 tradition.
If LSU is ranked No. 2, the Sugar chooses next, and Georgia makes the most sense to fill the spot vacated by the SEC champion.
The next pick goes to the Orange Bowl, and this is where things get tricky. On the surface, West Virginia looks like the choice, but because of the deflating nature of WVU's season-ending loss, I can see the Orange going with Kansas. As an old Big Eight school, KU even has a traditional connection to that game.
If Kansas is taken by the Orange, the only teams available to the Fiesta would be West Virginia and Hawaii. In this case, the Fiesta would select WVU, which would leave Hawaii for the Sugar.
Allstate BCS National Championship Game Ohio State (Big Ten champ) vs. LSU (SEC champ)
The Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi USC (Pac-10 champ) vs. Illinois (at-large)
Allstate Sugar Bowl Georgia (at-large) vs. Hawaii (at-large)
FedEx Orange Bowl Virginia Tech (ACC champ) vs. Kansas (at-large)
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma (Big 12 champ) vs. West Virginia (Big East champ)
Nonsense. So I guess that applies to March Madness, too?
Unfortunately, the roulette wheel we’re using is rigged. The human voters decide who they want in the big dance, and that’s who goes.
The networks want a playoff, it would make a ton of money. The problem is it would cost the major conferences a ton of money. Any playoff, other than four plus one, would be an NCAA sanctioned event.
I’m old enought to remember the old TV system run by the NCAA. One national appearance per team per year. One Regional appearance every other year. The NCAA took half the tv revenue from the appearances and the bowl games. It was too long and tough a fight to wrest control of TV rights from the NCAA. It took a supreme court challenge (you can thank OU for that even though it cost them a probation).
No, you don’t want a playoff run by the NCAA.
For the second half when my team started to pull away, they talked about nothing that had to do with the game they were supposed to be announcing - only the abortion (pardon my use of the term but it works) called the BCS. Well except for calling the winning QB "ordinary", that is, after lobbying for sainthood for Chase Daniel during the first half. Other than that it was all BCS. They barely put the camera on the game because Musberger and Herbstreit just wouldn't STFU about who's gonna play who and get back to the game.
Any two Division I teams with one loss or fewer and I won't complain. I'm still waiting for someone to make me Emperor for Life like Chavez so I can decree that all the major bowl games (Rose, Fiesta, Orange, Sugar) will be played on New Year's day and will constitute the first round of an eight-team playoff.
It could very much end up being the OSU vs. OU Bowl Championship. But this wild and crazy college football season has made the BCS look like a BIG JOKE. Bring on the bracket system!
Yes. I do. One that is subject to the anti-trust laws.
What I don’t want is the Big 6 Conferences deciding who goes to the national championship and gets the big payoffs, and who doesn’t.
“Well except for calling the winning QB “ordinary”,...”
They called Bradford ‘ordinary’? May OU be cursed with having ‘ordinary quarterbacks’ for the next 1000 years.
The Big 12 conference was not all that strong this season except for having 3 good teams, OU, MIZZOU, and KU.
Yeah. Herbstreit is a big shill for the BCS. I wonder if he gets a commission.
“What I don’t want is the Big 6 Conferences deciding who goes to the national championship and gets the big payoffs, and who doesn’t.”
What I don’t want is a bunch of midget football programs dictating terms to the Big 6 just like the old days. If that is the cost of a playoff, then I would rather the present system.
Besides I don’t think there is a ‘big six’, it’s a big four, SEC, Big12, Big 10, Pac10. The rest are merely ‘bigger midgets’.
We will find out in about an hour on the Fox BCS Selection show—my guess is LSU vs Ohio State.
I would prefer USC vs Oklahoma but that won’t happen. This is a real mess.
Time to look into the bracket system, like they do for college basketball and get rid of this BCS stuff, it has become a circus!
Your proposal has merit and would definitely be a good start. At least, there’d be a chance for a Hawaii or a Boise State.
Yeah see, Duke. That’s the problem. You big guys want to bully the little guys around.
In basketball, there’s actually a chance that a team not in a major conference can win. But you want to squash that, huh?
Since when did a small school decide who was going to the national championship?
You’re not making a lot of sense.
Well from another supporter of the must disrespected Big East and a co-sharier of the Big East Title ( UConn ), with WV, I have not love for the BCS, having become a big joke this season. I was REALLY suprised that WV went down to Pitt and lost last night. Hang in there, WV will still go to a bowl. I just wish that the college football system would go to a bracket system, it would make it much fairer.
Hey, Scott. Long time, no talk.
Yes. I agree. I think USC is one of the toughest teams in the country that NOBODY wants to face.
The big argument against a playoff system is that the bowl games are still entertaining. Well, why not make the bowl games host the playoff games?
In 2007, USC didn't play anyone from the SEC.
In 2006, they beat AK 50-14.
In 2005,they beat AK, 70-17.
In 2004, they didn't play anyone from the SEC.
In 2003, they beat Auburn 23-0.
In 2002, they beat Auburn 24-17.
In 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001, they didn't play any SEC teams.
Bottom line is that in the past ten years, they have played four times against the SEC and just two teams--hardly the stuff of demonstrated dominance.
I hope if its Ohio State they don’t get blown out by 30 again. Imagine the embarrassment of losing in the National Championship 2 years in a row by blow outs.. I hope we get to see a good game whoever the teams are, anyway they slice it ,this year its gonna be a mess.
USC really blew it with that lose to Stanford,they will not be in the title game which is too bad because I think they are probably the best team right now along with Oklahoma that lost to Colorado, that cost them the chance as well..
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