Posted on 12/02/2007 1:08:47 PM PST by diamond6
In the 10 years of the BCS era, we've seen pretty much everything.
Perhaps the only major development we've yet to see is a two-loss team in the BCS Championship Game. Later today, that one should become a reality.
The million-dollar question is: Which two-loss team will it be?
Jim Tressel has watched as other teams have helped Ohio State's title cause.
At least seven teams, including once-beaten Ohio State and Kansas, are likely to receive second-place votes in the polls. If the voters rank teams based on perceived strength (who would win on a neutral field), any number of championship game possibilities exist. But what if they vote on merit?
The Contenders It's always difficult to make assumptions when it comes to the BCS, but it would be shocking if Ohio State (11-1) didn't finish in the top two, and it would be fairly surprising if the Buckeyes weren't ranked No. 1. Here's a look at the teams in contention to face (presumably) OSU for all the marbles.
Immediately behind Ohio State in the current BCS standings are Georgia and Kansas, which failed to win their respective divisions in conference play. Some people might think this is no big deal because two teams in the BCS era have played for the national title without winning their conference championship. It should be pointed out, however, that neither of those teams -- Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003 -- was ranked in the top two of the polls at the end of the regular season, so neither would have played for the title under the current BCS formula.
Georgia (10-2) is at a further disadvantage because it plays in the SEC, which was won by LSU (11-2), and the Bulldogs don't have a head-to-head win over the Tigers to strengthen Dawgs' case against the big cats.
Kansas (11-1) will get consideration for being the only major-conference team other than Ohio State with fewer than two losses, but the Jayhawks don't have a single victory over a team that's even receiving votes in the AP poll.
Virginia Tech (11-2) at least has a conference championship on its résumé, but the Hokies also have a 41-point loss to LSU that's hard for voters to ignore. And the Tigers' two losses, for whatever it's worth, did come in triple overtime.
USC (10-2) won the Pac-10, but as fate would have it, the Trojans ended up with just two wins over teams with a winning record (Arizona State and Oregon State). Even if that doesn't hurt them in the polls, it certainly will hold them back in the computers in relation to the other two-loss teams.
Then there's Big 12 champion Oklahoma (11-2), which should make a late surge after a convincing win over No. 1 Missouri (a squad OU topped for the second time this season). But will it be enough to help the Sooners climb all the way from No. 9 into the BCS top two?
Based on the current standings and what each team accomplished this season, I expect it to be Ohio State vs. LSU in the Allstate BCS Championship Game on Jan. 7 in New Orleans.
But that's based simply on logic, which left this 2007 season many, many weeks ago.
Projecting the BCS Projecting the BCS matchups is as difficult as ever, thanks in large part to the uncertainty over which teams will be playing in the championship game. Using my prediction of Ohio State vs. LSU as a starting point, here's how I expect the rest of the BCS bowls to be filled. If any team other than LSU is playing the Buckeyes, you can throw all of this out the window.
Let's start with the natural tie-ins. Big 12 champion Oklahoma goes to the Fiesta Bowl, Pac-10 winner USC goes to the Rose Bowl, and ACC champ Virginia Tech goes to the Orange Bowl.
Assuming Ohio State is ranked No. 1, the first pick belongs to the Rose, which must replace the Buckeyes. Illinois, which will become eligible for an at-large spot by moving into the BCS top 14, is the logical pick to preserve the game's Big Ten vs. Pac-10 tradition.
If LSU is ranked No. 2, the Sugar chooses next, and Georgia makes the most sense to fill the spot vacated by the SEC champion.
The next pick goes to the Orange Bowl, and this is where things get tricky. On the surface, West Virginia looks like the choice, but because of the deflating nature of WVU's season-ending loss, I can see the Orange going with Kansas. As an old Big Eight school, KU even has a traditional connection to that game.
If Kansas is taken by the Orange, the only teams available to the Fiesta would be West Virginia and Hawaii. In this case, the Fiesta would select WVU, which would leave Hawaii for the Sugar.
Allstate BCS National Championship Game Ohio State (Big Ten champ) vs. LSU (SEC champ)
The Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi USC (Pac-10 champ) vs. Illinois (at-large)
Allstate Sugar Bowl Georgia (at-large) vs. Hawaii (at-large)
FedEx Orange Bowl Virginia Tech (ACC champ) vs. Kansas (at-large)
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma (Big 12 champ) vs. West Virginia (Big East champ)
Georgia is better than Hawaii.
Ha, ha, ha. LOL!
We’ll see about that!
Yep. We will. If they play, Hawaii will be destroyed by GA’s speed and physicality. It won’t even be close.
Hey, we weren’t *that* shabby! Just because we lost to the Sips - *it happens sometimes* - and then there was the unmentionable Pac Coast game.
Keep up your SEC arrogance.
It seems USC has crushed every SEC opponent they’ve played the last five years, haven’t they? :-)
We do know how to play footbal on the West Coast.
Here’s the “viable plan”. Use the current BCS system for the greater good - that is to seed teams from 1 to 16. Then, set up a tournament.
You can use the bowl games or not use the bowl games. It should not matter at all.
The lesser bowl games can continue to run and be a reward for the lesser teams.
There is a problem in using any major bowl game as a lead up to a National Championship. I know you know why.
Yes. But where there’s a will, there’s a way. Somehow, I think if Congress got involved or there was a lawsuit on anti-trust violations, they’d figure a way to do it.
However, regardless of whether they use the bowls or not, I don’t care. That is not a righteous excuse.
Unofficially, I’m calling the National Championship Game off, due to the lack of any truly deserving teams.
Alternatively, let’s give 12 teams a share of the championship, including Hawaii.
I would love to see that game. Maybe in the Rose Bowl?!
No,that would be too much to hope for.
But this year, it cries out for at least a four-team Plus One playoff, and they really need it given all the extraordinary parity due to the numerous upsets this season.
I am a WVU fan and I think the BCS is a very bad system. Unfortunatly money rules and the BCS was put in place to protect the Bowl System.
In the game last night WVU sucked!!!! There is no way we deserve a shot at the championship.
In fact ia a post last week I put forth the theory that if Mizzou and WVU won that the BCS would put Ohio State above us on strength of schedule.
Just because we cheer for a certain team that doesn’t mean were cannot think for ourselves.
USC and LSU are probably the two best teams. Ohio State is probably going to get the nod for number 1; I’m guessing Ohio State - LSU for the championship. As for the other matchups, there will be a lot better bowl matchups out there than either USC - Ill or Ga - Hawaii.
Hey. I feel your pain. I wish it was WVU and Mizzou, although for some very big ulterior motives.
Don’t get me wrong, I think it could have been an exciting game, but it would have been a ratings disaster. I was hoping for that, because then the networks would lose a ton of money.
Since that’s all this is about, I thought that would be a great way to make the networks want to have a playoff.
As a Georgia fan, I'd rather see Ga play Ohio State than USC. I'd probably be an easier game.
You may be right about the best teams, but we’ll never find out for sure, because there isn’t a playoff. I’m a big proponent of USC myself, and I think both LSU and Ohio State are real glad they don’t have to face them.
Well, that’s - without a doubt - true!
“The point is how do we know who really is deserving? Shouldn’t we have a playoff and find out in real life, instead of computerized roulette wheel?”
The computerized roulette wheel is as good as real life since if you took the top eight and let them play, and then let them play again, you’d get a different result.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.