Posted on 12/02/2007 1:08:47 PM PST by diamond6
In the 10 years of the BCS era, we've seen pretty much everything.
Perhaps the only major development we've yet to see is a two-loss team in the BCS Championship Game. Later today, that one should become a reality.
The million-dollar question is: Which two-loss team will it be?
Jim Tressel has watched as other teams have helped Ohio State's title cause.
At least seven teams, including once-beaten Ohio State and Kansas, are likely to receive second-place votes in the polls. If the voters rank teams based on perceived strength (who would win on a neutral field), any number of championship game possibilities exist. But what if they vote on merit?
The Contenders It's always difficult to make assumptions when it comes to the BCS, but it would be shocking if Ohio State (11-1) didn't finish in the top two, and it would be fairly surprising if the Buckeyes weren't ranked No. 1. Here's a look at the teams in contention to face (presumably) OSU for all the marbles.
Immediately behind Ohio State in the current BCS standings are Georgia and Kansas, which failed to win their respective divisions in conference play. Some people might think this is no big deal because two teams in the BCS era have played for the national title without winning their conference championship. It should be pointed out, however, that neither of those teams -- Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003 -- was ranked in the top two of the polls at the end of the regular season, so neither would have played for the title under the current BCS formula.
Georgia (10-2) is at a further disadvantage because it plays in the SEC, which was won by LSU (11-2), and the Bulldogs don't have a head-to-head win over the Tigers to strengthen Dawgs' case against the big cats.
Kansas (11-1) will get consideration for being the only major-conference team other than Ohio State with fewer than two losses, but the Jayhawks don't have a single victory over a team that's even receiving votes in the AP poll.
Virginia Tech (11-2) at least has a conference championship on its résumé, but the Hokies also have a 41-point loss to LSU that's hard for voters to ignore. And the Tigers' two losses, for whatever it's worth, did come in triple overtime.
USC (10-2) won the Pac-10, but as fate would have it, the Trojans ended up with just two wins over teams with a winning record (Arizona State and Oregon State). Even if that doesn't hurt them in the polls, it certainly will hold them back in the computers in relation to the other two-loss teams.
Then there's Big 12 champion Oklahoma (11-2), which should make a late surge after a convincing win over No. 1 Missouri (a squad OU topped for the second time this season). But will it be enough to help the Sooners climb all the way from No. 9 into the BCS top two?
Based on the current standings and what each team accomplished this season, I expect it to be Ohio State vs. LSU in the Allstate BCS Championship Game on Jan. 7 in New Orleans.
But that's based simply on logic, which left this 2007 season many, many weeks ago.
Projecting the BCS Projecting the BCS matchups is as difficult as ever, thanks in large part to the uncertainty over which teams will be playing in the championship game. Using my prediction of Ohio State vs. LSU as a starting point, here's how I expect the rest of the BCS bowls to be filled. If any team other than LSU is playing the Buckeyes, you can throw all of this out the window.
Let's start with the natural tie-ins. Big 12 champion Oklahoma goes to the Fiesta Bowl, Pac-10 winner USC goes to the Rose Bowl, and ACC champ Virginia Tech goes to the Orange Bowl.
Assuming Ohio State is ranked No. 1, the first pick belongs to the Rose, which must replace the Buckeyes. Illinois, which will become eligible for an at-large spot by moving into the BCS top 14, is the logical pick to preserve the game's Big Ten vs. Pac-10 tradition.
If LSU is ranked No. 2, the Sugar chooses next, and Georgia makes the most sense to fill the spot vacated by the SEC champion.
The next pick goes to the Orange Bowl, and this is where things get tricky. On the surface, West Virginia looks like the choice, but because of the deflating nature of WVU's season-ending loss, I can see the Orange going with Kansas. As an old Big Eight school, KU even has a traditional connection to that game.
If Kansas is taken by the Orange, the only teams available to the Fiesta would be West Virginia and Hawaii. In this case, the Fiesta would select WVU, which would leave Hawaii for the Sugar.
Allstate BCS National Championship Game Ohio State (Big Ten champ) vs. LSU (SEC champ)
The Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi USC (Pac-10 champ) vs. Illinois (at-large)
Allstate Sugar Bowl Georgia (at-large) vs. Hawaii (at-large)
FedEx Orange Bowl Virginia Tech (ACC champ) vs. Kansas (at-large)
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma (Big 12 champ) vs. West Virginia (Big East champ)
LSU, Oklahoma, VA Tech, USC all were their conference champions and get automatic berths.
But Illinois? Does the Rose Bowl still have that idiotic "must be Pac 10 vs Big 10" rule?
Gee, thanks for that slight mention of Hawaii.
What the F!!!@
Illinois shouldn’t get to sniff my jock strap!
Larry? is that you?
Missouri also beat Rose Bowl invitee Illinois 40-34.
Missouri got hosed.
Talk about red headed step child. Are they deliberately slapping Hawaii down to size, by not talking about them!
This is insane.
Sorry - I watched the Fox show. They had a crowd at Hawaii’s basketball stadium and had a Barbie-sports-chick interview their QB and coach.
That's just stupid.
Missouri is going to play Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl.
I predict worse riots in Dallas bars than have ever occurred during a Texas/OU weekend.
I just want people to realize what it says when one team in the FBS (I hate the new term, btw) can go undefeated and get left out of the national championship while a 2-loss team gets to play for the title.
I know, you can tell me all about strength of schedule and quality wins, triple overtimes, conference strength, etc.
I just think that if the only undefeated team comes from a Hawaii, Tulane or Boise St., they ought to be playing for the national championship or they shouldn’t be classified in the same “division” as the major conference schools.
We could take the six major conferences and Notre Dame, make them a separate division and then give C-USA, Sun Belt, WAC, MWC, MAC etc their own division and let them have their own national championship game.
My own solution is to take the eight highest ranked conference champions (or Notre Dame if they rank higher than the eighth highest) and stage an eight team playoff. No wild cards. You qualify only if you win your conference.
The actual standings aren’t out yet but, just as a guess, here’s how a playoff field might look this year:
8) BYU at 1) Ohio State
7) Hawaii at 2) LSU
6) West Virginia at 3) Virginia Tech
5) USC at 4) Oklahoma
The semi-finals would be held as part of two New Years bowls and the finals would be during the dead week between the NFL conference championships and the Super Bowl.
“USC v. Illinois. That sucks!”
Only one reason I can see for not choosing Georgia — they don’t want to upstage the championship game.
The fact that it cheats the fans is obviously not their concern.
ping...
I am sick. I wish there was a way to force the football mafia's hand.
1. Ohio State 11-1
| 2. LSU 11-2 |
| 3. Virginia Tech 11-2 |
| 4. Oklahoma 11-2 |
| 5. Georgia 10-2 |
| 6. Missouri 11-2 |
| 7. USC 10-2 |
| 8. Kansas 11-1 |
| 9. West Virginia 10-2 |
| 10. Hawaii 12-0 |
| 11. Arizona State 10-2 |
| 12. Florida 9-3 |
| 13. Illinois 9-3 |
| 14. Boston College 10-3 |
| 15. Clemson 9-3 |
| 16. Tennessee 9-4 |
| 17. BYU 10-2 |
| 18. Wisconsin 9-3 |
| 19. Texas 9-3 |
| 20. Virginia 9-3 |
| 21. South Florida 9-3 |
| 22. Cincinnati 9-3 |
| 23. Auburn 8-4 |
| 24. Boise State 10-2 |
| 25. UConn 9-3 |
I actually like my Bulldogs’ matchup - Georgia Tech - and the bowl - Humanitarian.
Go Dawgs!
I'll go out on a limb, and predict they aren't going to be undefeated next season. Of course, I'll predict they won't be undefeated this season, either.
Missouri got screwed and Illinois was given a gift and I don’t see why.
You’re going to lose that bet. :-)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.