Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Get that man an oxygen mask!
Papi going to the opposite field with left handed pitching again.
Boston is hot!!!!
JD is so sharp at everything,he just looks like he should be batting 330.
I have strung a few syllables over him too, believe me.
heh
I love you already!, good thing I'm not a Mormon since we could always use another Red Sox fan in the house. ;-D
Francis has a high pitch count at 57 after 2 innings.
Beckett’s been high with his pitches tonight so far.
Francis even more so, especially in the first inning.
I’ll admit it..I didn’t think Manny was gonna get that.
They sure are!
Francis needs to lighten up. LOL!
There are those moments...
Then the throw against the Indians,bare handed off the wall. Lofton was likely shocked.
High pitches much of the time turn into gophers.
Save the six run inning for the bottom of the 5th ... we need to get 4 1/2 innings in before the rain picks up.
It might be the rain.
Only a few?
I was in Fall River Mass. back in early September at battleship cove. (If you are unfamiliar with it look it up)
This WWII Vet and a Sox fan was with me listening to the game.
He bitched about J.D. every time he came up to bat only to have him hit a three run homer getting us back in the lead, I told him to keep bitching him out because it seemed to be working!
What a riot, he was very colorfull and a very nice man.
Lugo becomes
Sluggo?
Tek,JD,and Sluggo up...
Okay,I am dreamin...
I expect a lot more curves in the future.
Nice bunt Lugo!!!
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