American Idol 2006--Live Thread (Part II)

FOX ^ | 3-25-06

[silent_jonny]

still for Tammy

[BamaDi]

love your tag line....i'm still laughing - just noticed it!

[Wolfstar]

Just a quick AI update since I get to see Good Day L.A., FOX's morning news program here. They always interview the person who got bumped off. So this morning, Steve Edwards, Dorothy Lucey and Jillian Barbieri interviewed Pickle.

What I noticed immediately was that the accent was way toned down. Still there, and probably real, but not at the extreme "hickiness" (to coin a word?) Kellie used on the show.

Also we got to see the razor quick mind in that blonde head. She's no dummy. Kellie had been very sweet, not so talkative, and charming during the interview. Dorothy asked her if she was mad about being voted off, and Kellie said no, that she was excited for the opportunities to come, etc. When the interview was concluding, Steve jokingly told Kellie to "stay mad," really meaning the reverse, that she was cute, sweet, charming, and he likes her. Kellie didn't hear him at first, so he repeated it, and like lightening she caught what his underlying message was. So she played along and said, "I am mad," then laughed. The Kellie we saw on the show would have played confused and said something loopy when Edwards told her to "stay mad."

BTW, one of the hosts asked Kellie if she was going to have some calamari now that she's off the show, and Kellie said never again.

Steve Edwards also told Kellie her life path has now changed for the better, and he wondered what she wanted to do. She said she still wants to do something in music, but she also said she'd like to try acting. If she can act, I think that's where her future may be, because I suspect she's going to get offers.

[SirLinksalot]

Some thoughts on last night's results show ....

First order of business tonight? Simon apologizes to Katharine McPhee for being unfairly harsh on her. During Nigel's TVWeek.com interview, he was very concerned that the judges were much too harsh on Katharine's performance last night. Tonight, Simon says, "I think I was unfair to one person last night and I want to apologize, because I don't think this person got the right appraisal. And that person is Katharine." The crowd cheers, Kat looks delighted, and now we know she's certainly NOT on the chopping block tonight. "It sounds different when you watch it back," says Simon. Randy throws in a, "it was a little harsh, a little harsh" for good measure.

Well What did I tell you folks ? In my recap yesterday, I said this of Kat :

---

The judges ( ALL OF THEM ) collectively were underwhelmed by Kat's performance BECAUSE I KNEW THAT IT INVITED COMPARISON TO Whitney Houston. YOU CAN'T HELP IT !! So we have such comments as -- "THE SONG WAS TOO BIG FOR YOU", " YOU ARE NO WHITNEY HOUSTON", blah blah.

Heck Simon, she isn't Whitney, she's Kat Mcphee. And honestly, this was a good performance! She didn't glory note or trill her way through the song. But I thought that was a good thing--because Kat has a tendency to go wayward a bit on the high notes and miss notes when she attempts the fancy melisma. But tonight she sang powerfully and with emotion, hitting nearly every note. Maybe the judges just didn't have the imagination to put Whitney's version out of their minds. Or that was some pretty heavy-duty de-pimping coming from the judges. It was so heavy handed and TOTALLY UNFAIR that I felt bad for her. I'm dialing for her just to get back at these twits !

---

Yeah, it sounded different looking back a second time, BUT WHY DID I GET IT THE FIRST TIME YOU TWITS !!

As I said before, put me in as a PUBLIC ADVOCATE JUDGE. I'll quit my day job if they'll pay me just 10% of Paula's $ 3M salary :)

ENOUGH OF MY FANCY DREAMS.... BACK TO THE SHOW

---

Comment about --- Andrea Bocelli and David Foster

If Bocelli's performance and some of my friend's reactions tell me anything it is this ----- ARGUING ABOUT TASTE IN MUSIC IS AN UNWINNABLE PROPOSITION.

You either like Opera Lite or you don't.

Bocelli sings beautifully and there is a case to be made to say that a great singer can hit high notes with ease, sustain them without cracking, and perform all the fancy trills without sounding like fingers on a chalkboard. But ultimately what is pleasant to someone's ear will be unpleasant to another.

Simon hates country music, I love it. My friend's children love P Diddy, Eminem, HIP HOP, RAP, loud repetitive music with high DB, I LOATHE THEM with the intensity of a thousand suns.

But how do you win an argument regarding a matter of taste ?

Is there a right or wrong answer to such questions :

1. Which is the BETTER COLOR --- Blue or Pink ?

2. Which is the BETTER TASTE --- SPICY OR SWEET ?

3. Which is the BETTER MUSIC --- Jazz, Soul or Alt-Rock ?

4. Why do more people listen to Kellie Pickler rather than Mandissa ?

Ultimately it boils down to personal taste which means it is SUBJECTIVE !

Getting into arguments like this is UNWINNABLE. The only way someone wins is when you live in a coutnry like Afghanistan when Mullah Omar was the head honcho. THERE, ONLY HIS MUSIC CAN BE APPRECIATED, THE REST ARE BARBARIC.

Hence I try to avoid arguments like -- Taylor's music SUX or Chris' music is HAWT.

You like what you like and that's all there is.

That's why we have market niches for music.

---

In this week's TVWeek.com interview, Nigel promised that the Top 2 would be revealed to the audience for the First! Time! Evah!

I originally thought it was Taylor and Elliott because they were asked to take the seat first. BUT NO !! It was actually Chris and Kat ( Dial Idol notwithstanding ).

Who woulda thunk !!

---

SOME ANALYSIS REGARDING WHO IS IN MOST DANGER OF LEAVING....COMMENTS, DISAGREEMENTS, CRITIQUES ARE VERRRRY WELCOME.

We have reached the CRUCIAL POINT where the Soul Patrol’s strength will have practically MAXed out.

Remember what I said in a previous post ?

I said that when we reach top 5 or top 4, the fan transfer and gravitation factor will and can overcome the unified voting factor.

NEXT WEEK IS IT FOR TAYLOR FOLKS. It will either be one more week for Taylor or he could possibly leave next week.


And who could possibly be the big vote getter after Kellie’s departure ?

My guess is Kat Mcphee and Chris Daughtry.

Just being realistic folks as a numbers person.

Unless Taylor delivers a WOW ( not just acceptable but WOW ) performance, I’m afraid SOUL PATROL's NUMBERS HAS REACHED ITS PRACTICAL UPPER NUMERICAL LIMIT.

Kellie fans could likely consist of:

Female - 12 -25
Southern states ( especially North Carolina )
Country music

I dont see Kat attracting ALL those demograhpics. I could also see a fair enough percentage of Kellie fans that no longer vote. Those that do I could see split up something like:

Kat -- for those who prefer to see HAWT women ( mostly heterosexual men of course )

Paris - for the young female ages, say 12 to 20

Taylor and Chris - for the southern vote (Elliott is a transplant)

Chris - for the older females , 20 to 25 and because he is ALSO from North Carolina.

Again, just remember this is my own perception of how things are. I am not infallible. I am looking at it from the fan's perspective....

So, my gut feel is most of Kellie’s fans will go to Chris and Kat and they will benefit the most because :

Male voters ( especially the older ones ) NEED to look at HAWT ladies. Now that one HAWT one is out, there is only ONE OTHER LEFT and she is REALLY HAWT.

North Carolinians have one of their own left and Chris is it.

My other gut feel is a lot of Ace fans also went to either Chris or Kat.

REASON 1: Ace is the HAWT guy. Now that the Hawt guy is gone, the female fans gravitate to the other Hawt guy ( albeit already married ).

REASON 2 : Fans want someone HAWT to win ( it's ALSO about image folks ). Therefore if they can't have a HAWT guy to put on the magazine covers, the least they can do is have a HAWT girl. Well, guess who the HAWT girl is ??

But Taylor fans out there ( and there are many overseas who can't vote ) have to remember this — SOUL PATROL IS NOT INVINCIBLE.

You have a large number ( perphaps several million ) but what is that compared to tens of millions ? ( There were 47 million votes last night if TPTB are telling the truth ).

As I said, Taylor’s chances start to become IFFY the moment we reach the critical number 5. FOLKS, THE TIME HAS COME ... WE HAVE REACHED THAT POINT.

But let Soul Patrolers calm down and relax and ask ourselves the question — WHAT IS THE WORST THAT COULD HAPPEN IF TAYLOR GETS VOTED OFF NEXT WEEK ???

1) Taylor has achieved his goal of getting his voice heard.

2) I am DEAD SURE that a major label will pick him ( if not 19E).

3) Taylor has AT LEAST MORE THAN a million fans here and overseas ( as far as Asia, Latin America and Europe from the posters I read in the AI boards ). That is already GUARANTEED PLATINUM by any standard. Had they been able to vote, Taylor would have been hands down the winner.

4) We all get to see him in concert on the Summer Tour.

Whatever happens from now on, TAYLOR IS ALREADY SUCCESSFUL and as long as SOUL PATROL EXISTS, His albums will continue to do well.

SO WHAT’s THERE TO WORRY ABOUT ? American Idol isn’t the be all and end all of everything you know…

My gut feel is that REGARDLESS OF WHAT PARIS DOES, she’s the next to go.

Why is that ? As I said Paris as REALLY REACHED HER UPPER LIMIT in terms of the number of fans dedicated to keeping her in. If at the time when you sang your best ( Her version of THESE FOOLISH THINGS in STANDARDS NIGHT WAS ARGUABLY THE TOP 2 PERFORMANCE OF THE NIGHT, comparable to the great Billie Holiday herself ), you still made the bottom 3, it does not speak well for your support numbers.

You have got to admire the girl. Seventeen, the pressure of being on the edge of elimination every week and she delivers. Performing against seasoned singers. That’s guts.

What I think has worked against her is that she’s ‘re-invented’ herself too much over the progression of the show. We’ve had Billie-Holiday-Paris, Beyonce-booty-bounce-Paris, Dionne-Warwick-Paris, Gloria estefan- Paris etc…I don’t think she has quite matured into who Paris is. But when she does…she will be a force to be reckoned with. She sure made me sit up and listen during her audition and a few of her performances were sublime.

So, I am reasonably confident that unless any of the 4 adults really does something embarassing ( like sneeze in the middle of a performance, or seriously go off key ), they WILL make the TOP 4 ( sorry Paris fans ).

But by then, SHEER NUMBERS BEGIN TO COME INTO PLAY.

The all consuming question will be — WHERE WILL PARIS’ votes go to ?

If they go to Taylor, he makes the top 3. If they split, I am unsure whether the strength of Soul Patrol alone can overcome the strength of the other contestants ( IF THEY DO WELL ).

Remember this — AN INDICATOR OF THE STRENGTH OF YOUR FAN BASE IS HOW FAR YOU ARE AT THE TOP WHEN YOU ARE AT YOUR BEST AND HOW FAR YOU ARE FROM THE BOTTOM WHEN YOU ARE AT YOUR WORST.

Paris’ fan base is WEAK because she was GREAT, SUPERB, CLOSE TO EMULATING THE GREAT Billie Holiday herself two weeks ago. YET — SHE WAS STILL IN THE BOTTOM 3. Does not give me much confidence that she’ll last long.

Elliott was the BEST LAST NIGHT. Unless Paula is acting or the drug she's taking is having it's effect, you don't usually bring out TEARS in a judge and Elliott did JUST THAT.

YET, HE DID NOT MAKE THE TOP 2. Which means his fan base IS NOT strong enough. He’ll have to keep performing at this level to continue to AVOID the bottom 3. This is looking more and more difficult as we reach the top 4.

Taylor’s ranking on the other hand tells me how strong SOUL PATROL is. EVEN AT HIS WORST NIGHT ( e.g. Country Night and last night ) HE IS STILL IN THE TOP 3 !! This means that AT THE VERY LEAST — HE WILL BE IN THE TOP 4 and MOST PROBABLY in the top 3.

Here are my hunches —

If Paris goes, her votes get split between Taylor, Elliott and Kat. Why not Chris ? Because her STYLE is closer to the throwback style of the 60’s ( Billie Holiday, Ella Fitzerald ). Those who love her like that will tend to go to whoever is closest to this style. So Taylor at the very least will get a significant number of Paris votes.

If Elliott goes, my gut feeling is most of his supporters go to Taylor simply because of the “BUDDY” factor. They are close and most will honor Elliott by keeping his friend in there. Based on the Idol boards, most Taylor fans have Elliott as their #2 pick, and Elliott fans have Taylor as their #2 pick. I feel the love there! Elliott’s R&B styling and Taylor’s soul thang are very compatible.

As I said — Tonight’s greatest gainer I feel, is Kat because my gut feel is Kellie’s votes will mostly go to her ( she being the other sexy lady of the group). Chris will gain from Kellie's departure also because they have the smae state -- NORTH CAROLINA. And the North Carolinans are a tough voting block ( see Clay and Fantasia ).

It might all be very close, though. I don’t think Taylor stands to gain much from Kellie’s departure - Kat and Chris will be the main beneficiaries - but as Paris appears to be the next in line to go I’m fairly confident that he won’t be leaving next week. Paris’ voters I imagine will go to Elliott and Taylor and some to Kat (last female in the comp if they’re voting on gender) which could be enough to allow Taylor to overhaul Kat depending on the margins.

The biggest boost for Taylor would sadly, because I like him, be Elliott leaving. And in fact if A.I. is wanting a Chris/Kat final - and it certainly looks like it after last night - the biggest threat is from the potential combining of those two fanbases. (Obviously I want Taylor to survive but if it’s Elliott I hope the Soul Patrol will get behind him and see if it can’t upset A.I.’s applecart. I don’t have anything particular against Chris or Kat themselves but the pimpage that has gone on for both of them turns my stomach frankly. )

Given my huge suspicion of “the machine” I’m not sure that Taylor’s fate is actually in his own hands, but if I were him I would be throwing caution to the wind at this point anyway. Whatever he sings he needs to relax, forget about the judges and the A.I. circus and just pour himself into the music. I would much rather see him go after a performance in which he was being true to himself than one that was a compromise calculated to try and garner votes.

I see it as important for his future that he sets out his stall now. If people take away the wrong impression of what he’s selling there may be disappointment for them in the future or a lot of problems for him as he tries to mould himself into what he thinks people want. He has to think ahead, win or lose.

And all that within the rigid constraints of this interesting BUT manipulative show. I wish him the very, very best of luck.

Just my 2 cents worth.

---

TWO QUESTIONS :

1) HOW DID BOCELLI KNOW THAT PICKLER WAS BLOND ? IS THERE A SMELL OR SOUND TEST FOR IT ?

2) WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THE SIGNATURE SIGN OFF FROM LAST TWO SEASONS --- "SEACREST OUT" ?

[over3Owithabrain]

Interesting and thoughtful analysis. I agree on Taylor - AI wants him out. He still can survive and advance with a WOW performance or two, as can any of them. But as you say, he needs to go SOUL and forget about what he thinks AI or anyone else wants him to do. Give us Ray, Joe and The Doobies. Fulfill your contract with AI and then sell out every club, college campus, concert hall, and arena you play in for the rest of your life! For all of the AI manipulation, which is ugly and shameless IMO, he and the others are much better off from being discovered on the show. If they play the hand they are dealt. Taylor is geniune, sincere and I think a bit naive. The starmaking machinery eats up people like that.

[I'm ALL Right!]

Where do you find the MOE stats?

[SirLinksalot]

Just so you know... Next week, each contestant gets to sing 2 songs !!

1) SONGS FROM THE YEAR YOU WERE BORN

2) CURRENT BILLBOARD TOP 100 HITS

They were born in the following year(s):

Taylor : 1976

Elliott: 1979

Chris : 1980

Kate : 1985

Paris : 1989

So, get your thinking caps on and make suggestions to each contestants to see which songs fit them...

[grania]

I like your analysis.

I'm uncomfortable with a few things this year. One is that ALL of the "help" has been powerful male singers. It seems to me Kelli was following what they said, she's the personality type that needs approval, and it has not helped her sweet, vulnerable voice, suitable for sing-a-long tunes. As far as I'm concerned she was sandbagged.

I've looked at this year's top five, and paired them with last year. It almost looks set up for types.

Chris and Bo. Bo is the chug a few, sing a few with Skynward type. Chris is more Pearl Jam. I prefer Bo...know where he's at.

Eliot and Federov. Both have excellent voices, and have benefitted to the max from AI. Here....a tie, like what they both have accomplished. It's American Dream stuff.

Vonzelle and Paris. Vonzelle's a natural and beautiful, Paris can be anyone she wants to be, and I will definitely by her Jazz CD. Advantage...Vonzelle. Paris is getting ahead of herself.

Taylor and Scott. America loves unlikely success stories. Advantage Taylor, but love the fact that Scott also makes music fun. Advantage Taylor....but add Scottie to your band!!

Katherine and Carrie. Hmmmm....Katherine, an overtrained screecher that can't choose clothes she stays in or Carrie, a sweet, talented singer that conveys a story when she sings a song. Duhhhh.....Carrie by a few light years.

Summary.....this year isn't as good at this point. This year's singers have been overcommercialized, and it's hurting the spontaneity and fun. Tayor and Eliot are fun to watch, last year all five of the top ones were.

Even my guy, who didn't enjoy Kelli's music thought there was something odd about her losing and how poorly her singing has been critiqued the past two weeks, and the fact that she was given unhelpful advice.

[conservativebabe]

Oh good heavens! Seeing those birth years makes me feel like a mummy.

[TAdams8591]

"I think what's being said here is that a lot of people (guest professionals on the show) have praised Taylor's musical ability and they can't ALL be wrong!"

Yeah they can. Which is why the U.S. was not established by the founders as a pure democracy.

How terrible of me to spell Katherine's name wrong in that one post. And how PETTY of YOU to mention it.

All because I think Taylor stinks, DARE to say it and dare to stand up for myself to those who gave me flack about it.

[kevkrom]

Where do you find the MOE stats?

Netizen posted it earlier.

[TAdams8591]

They were talentless and they knew it.

Actually, Ace was FAR better than Taylor, and his voice has a greater range. Ace sings better, moves better on stage and is simply GREAT looking. He's got it all, the entire package.

On the other hand Taylor can't sing and can't dance. Those quirky moves make him look ridiculous, as Simon says. Only TAYLOR is too stupid and arrogant to know it.

[Apple Blossom]

Then he said, in Taylor's defense his song was changed twice and he just got that one the day before. He did great with it under those circumstances.

I agree! If it's not enough to make you change your song once, but twice! I can only say that Taylor demonstrated true professionalism by rolling with the punches and putting on a good performance in spite of the curve balls he was thrown. I'm sure this does happen in the real world.

[kevkrom]

Yeah, it sounded different looking back a second time, BUT WHY DID I GET IT THE FIRST TIME YOU TWITS !!

We've seen it well established in previous seasons that the "house mix", or what they hear in the theater, is much different that the "air mix" that gets broadcast. It's not surprising that the judges miss some things in that case.

FWIW, this is the second time they've corrected themselves on Kat, the first time being that they weren't harsh enough on her on the "Songs From the 21st Century" where she wound up in the bottom 3. This time, they had it the other way around.

[I'm ALL Right!]

An astute analysis--I agree. And though I hate the idea that they are deliberately dissing Taylor, who is so uniquely gifted, it may be a good thing if for him if he is not in the top 2. I think there are less legal issues and ties to AI if he gets out before the "top two". I will vote for him rabidly, though, and I will buy anything he records.

On another note, I don't think I could bring myself to pay for a concert with Ace, Kelly, and Bucky in it.
Taylor Hicks--absolutely yes without a doubt. Sign me up...where do I pay?
Elliot--he would be a fantastic show! What a voice!
Paris--only if she swore she would not speak.
Kat--leaning toward no for the same reasons as....
Chris--I don't like either of them personally. I get the feeling they are conceited, it shows all over. I do think they are both very talented, but I would not vote for them simply because of attitude. I'm sure they would be good in concert (well, not so sure about Kat), but I don't like people with ego issues.

[Apple Blossom]

Please remember that the apology came AFTER the votes were cast, not that the harsh remarks had much influence for the votes cast Tuesday night, but they might in the future.

[Wyatt's Torch]

find it very interesting how little we hear from former contestants about what goes on behind the scenes. After 4 full seasons, you figure someone would have something to say...

Two words for you: Confidentialy. Agreement.

[Wyatt's Torch]

I've seen several of them and, frankly, I believe them. There is a little clause in the rules that says that the rules and procedures can be altered by the producers without notice. I believe that has been used in times of "close voting" to select the most advantageous to the grand plan elimination. Case in point here: who else do Kellie myrmidons vote for now?

[Wyatt's Torch]

Are you serious? Her "BR" was awful... much worse than Constantine's version, which itself wasn't very good.

Agree completely. Constantine put on a good show and pieces of the vocal were good but it was far worse than either version on Rockstar INXS. And Kellie just murdered it in cold blood. Dreadful vocal. Horrible.

[commish]

I have been a huge Taylor fan since Day one, but Elliot has grown on me more and more each week. When he sang during Hollywood week I was totally blown away. Now that he has blossomed he is quickly becoming my second favorite.

I think Katherine has an exquisite voice, but she does not know how to use it. She consistently tries to hit the big notes that she should never ever go for. I like Paris voice, but she is just not ready yet (I do think Paris will be a Superstar in 5 yrs or so). I really liked Chris initially, but to me he is the same as Taylor, neither one of them has really gotten any better than they were initially.

Truth be told, Elliot fits the mold of past champions better than anyone else in the top 5. Every year the eventual winner has been the person who has grown the most throughout the competition, while the acknowledged front runner has not. Season 2 - Clay was anointed early, but Rueben just got better each week. Last Year - it looked like Bo would run away, but as the competition wore on it was Carrie who blossomed and grew.

This year Chris, Taylor, Kat and Paris have been head and shoulders above everyone else since the beginning -- but they are exactly the same as they were the first week. None of the 4 has changed any. Meanwhile Elliot gets better and more comfortable each week. He has benefitted the most from the guest star and coaches.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Taylor just needs to be Taylor. That's what people love about him.