Posted on 11/28/2005 4:31:22 PM PST by Bush2000
Cost questions dog Blu-ray DVD's lead
By John Borland
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
Published: November 28, 2005, 4:00 AM PST
Because Sony's Blu-ray disc technology appears to be the front-runner in the nasty fight to determine how the DVDs of the future are produced, movie studios and disc manufacturers are beginning to come to terms with the financial realities of the new format--as well as some troubling uncertainties.
For more than a year now, a bitter public relations war has been waged between supporters of Blu-ray and a rival Toshiba-backed technology known as HD DVD. Both are high-capacity discs that will support the distribution of high-definition versions of movies, with much better picture quality than what's possible with today's technology.
Blu-ray appears to have the lead, with most major movie studios saying they'll release films in the format next year. That's led to new concerns about mass production of DVDs in the new format. Since it represents a major break with past DVD and CD techniques, some worry Blu-ray will be expensive to support--at least in the short term--and could jack up prices for consumers.
What's new:
Blu-ray appears to be edging out its next-generation DVD rival, HD DVD. But some manufacturers say it will be expensive to produce.
Bottom line:
The debate over next-generation formats remains mired in politics and spin, but the real cost of discs and players will help consumers make their own decisions at the cash register next year.
How much? No one can say for certain. But in at least one early test, according to a top manufacturing executive who asked to remain anonymous, a manufacturing line for HD DVD discs produced nearly twice as many usable discs as a similar line pumping out the Blu-ray format, over the same period of time. That translates into higher costs for Blu-ray producers. Moreover, component costs for Blu-ray can be nearly double HD DVD costs, because elements are still hard to find, the executive said.
That Blue-ray discs may start out pricey shouldn't be a shock. They face a classic curve for new technologies, which are initially expensive as manufacturers work with small numbers of orders and lean how to streamline the process. Sony also disputes those high-priced estimates.
"If there is a (cost) difference, that has yet to be determined," said Sony Pictures' Adrian Alperovich, the studio's executive vice president in charge of new business development. "There are (manufacturers) on both sides of the equation. If there is a difference in price either way, we think it will be minimal."
Alperovich argues that if there is a short-term price gap, the advantages of Blu-ray--mainly more capacity and flexibility for things like gaming--should outweigh that concern. But traditional engineering questions about Blu-ray have taken on a testier tone in this scrap.
Blu-ray's rival, the HD DVD format, relies on a reasonably well understood process. HD DVDs are constructed very similarly to existing DVDs, and the basic discs can be made with relatively minor modifications to existing DVD manufacturing lines.
Blu-ray discs, on the other hand, require completely different equipment. Most of the major disc replicators--the companies that make DVDs and CDs--now have a test line or two up and running, but hard data on production costs remains scant.
The format's backers at the Blu-ray Disc Association have repeatedly predicted that costs would come down quickly and be almost immediately competitive with those of HD DVD.
Yet one senior executive at a major disc replication facility said he has long been worried about Blu-ray costs.
"We feel that some of the (Blu-ray backers') statements are setting unrealistic cost and price expectations for the content owners they are courting," said the executive, who asked to remain anonymous owing to a close working relationship with Blu-ray companies. "They're right at the zero point in terms of operational knowledge."
Spin, or real concerns?
For the most part, things like the technical details of the manufacturing process, of video compression and of disc formats are irrelevant to consumers. But the prospect of a next-generation DVD format war, similar to the battle between VHS and Sony's Betamax in the mid-1970s, has chilled the industry. Analysts at Sanford Bernstein estimated that media companies could collectively lose as much as $16 billion over seven years if HD DVD and Blu-ray were launched without a clear favorite, because without a clear-cut winner, consumers would be leery of buying one or the other.
If history is ever a guide... it should be here. Pick the standard that *isn't* Sony. They have a long and proud history of really blowing it on industry standards. I'd bet this will be no different.
In the future, post computer threads in the chat forum under the computer, internet topics.
Thanks.
I would like to know what 'rare' materials exactly are going into the Blu-ray discs creation that are so hard to find and will increase the cost of the discs.
I bought Beta.....
Sony invents 3.5 inch Disk Drive
If the movie industry distributes their content on Blu-Ray discs, it will win.
I guess Sony had learned from the Betamax that trying to be an exclusive supplier of something doesn't work if someone can come up with an alternative (Mr. Robertson and Mr. Phillips demonstrated the principle many decades before). And they weren't yet fighting themselves since they weren't in any sort of software business.
I don't like the notion that Sony can kill disks by remote control, but Blu-Ray includes that as a deliberate feature. IMHO, that should eliminate it entirely from consideration.
If the movie industry distributes content on Blu-Ray and not on HD-DVD, then HD-DVD won't win. But that doesn't mean Blu-Ray will.
I expect a lot of customers, ESPECIALLY those with high-definition sets, will remain perfectly happy with their current DVD players and see no reason to upgrade to Blu-Ray.
I suppose if movie companies wanted to stop releasing stuff on DVD, they could, but I really don't think that's likely to happen as long as customers want to buy movies in that format.
Amen!
Although Betamax was ultimately a consumer flop, based solely on price of players, Betacam, based on the same cassette shell, lives on today in almost every TV station in the country.
Sony does do some strange things, though, from time to time.
I bought a betamax when they came out and the quality and slow speed was a lot better than VHS. I think VHS won because it went 6 hours instead of 4 1/2 hours on beta.
oops make that quality at slow speed
I expect consumers with HDTVs will make a gradual transition to the high-definition discs over the next decade, especially after the old analog broadcast frequencies are shut down in 2008 or 2009.
More entertainment craps to amuse your over amused selves with. Blu Ray DVDs- A giant step forward for mankind
I'm rather surprized how fast DVD will be eclipsed. CDs had a 20-year run, and their main competition (for now) is iTunes.
I'm further impressed that no cartridge or caddy will be needed. Supposedly, they're just using a harder plastic on the disc's surface.
Since DVDs are certainly sufficient for most people, I'll bet that Blu-ray will be adopted mainly for data storage. Movies will instead be streamed or follow an On-demand model.
Unfortunately, the current plan is to prevent movies from being shown in high definition on most current HDTV sets, and forbid the creation of convertor boxes that would allow high-definition viewing on them.
So owners of most current high-definition sets will have ZERO reason to want to switch.
The real question will be whether the movie studios will come to regard the viewing public as a customer rather than an enemy.
If I buy a DVD, there's no way the vendor can decide to censor it retroactively. What's on the DVD is what will always be on the DVD, assuming it's well-kept.
Movie companies don't like that notion; they'd rather have a 'pay for use' model than an 'ownership' model. This despite the fact that customers clearly favor the ownership model.
If the movie companies don't allow people to OWN movies on Blu-Ray or HD-DVD, I don't think many people will buy them.
Sony must not think it has enough class action lawsuits for right now...
Sony must not think it has enough class action lawsuits against them right now...
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