[supercat]

If the movie industry distributes their content on Blu-Ray discs, it will win.

If the movie industry distributes content on Blu-Ray and not on HD-DVD, then HD-DVD won't win. But that doesn't mean Blu-Ray will.

I expect a lot of customers, ESPECIALLY those with high-definition sets, will remain perfectly happy with their current DVD players and see no reason to upgrade to Blu-Ray.

I suppose if movie companies wanted to stop releasing stuff on DVD, they could, but I really don't think that's likely to happen as long as customers want to buy movies in that format.

[I Drive Too Fast]

Supposedly, Playstation 3 will include a built-in Blu-ray capable dvd player and perhaps 1 or 2 games and 1 or 2 high def movies in the package. I will see what is available next year when I buy one.

I bought a betamax when they came out and the quality and slow speed was a lot better than VHS. I think VHS won because it went 6 hours instead of 4 1/2 hours on beta.

[HAL9000]

I expect consumers with HDTVs will make a gradual transition to the high-definition discs over the next decade, especially after the old analog broadcast frequencies are shut down in 2008 or 2009.

[SteveMcKing]

I'm rather surprized how fast DVD will be eclipsed. CDs had a 20-year run, and their main competition (for now) is iTunes.

I'm further impressed that no cartridge or caddy will be needed. Supposedly, they're just using a harder plastic on the disc's surface.

Since DVDs are certainly sufficient for most people, I'll bet that Blu-ray will be adopted mainly for data storage. Movies will instead be streamed or follow an On-demand model.

[Bush2000]

I expect a lot of customers, ESPECIALLY those with high-definition sets, will remain perfectly happy with their current DVD players and see no reason to upgrade to Blu-Ray.

Agree. Laserdiscs, anyone?