If the movie industry distributes their content on Blu-Ray discs, it will win.
If the movie industry distributes content on Blu-Ray and not on HD-DVD, then HD-DVD won't win. But that doesn't mean Blu-Ray will.
I expect a lot of customers, ESPECIALLY those with high-definition sets, will remain perfectly happy with their current DVD players and see no reason to upgrade to Blu-Ray.
I suppose if movie companies wanted to stop releasing stuff on DVD, they could, but I really don't think that's likely to happen as long as customers want to buy movies in that format.