FR Pool on Date and Time of Miers Withdrawal [vanity]

governsleastgovernsbest

[governsleastgovernsbest]

At the risk of alienating the roughly 1/3 of FReepers who, judging by the FR poll, support the Miers nomination, I believe its withdrawal has now become a question of when, not whether.

The final nail was probably the John Fund article in this morning's WSJ which strongly suggests that if hearings proceed, some very messy matters regarding the Texas Lottery and W's National Guard service will be dredged up. Here's a link to the Fund column:

http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110007431

Note also that, after staying above the fray, the influential Wall Street Journal editorial today calls the Miers nomination a "mistake."

So with this as preface, and again, with apologies in advance to FReepers who might be outraged at the exercise, I am starting this pool to predict when the announcement will come - be it from the WH or from Ms. Miers herself - that the nomination is being withdrawn.

I'll start the ball rolling by putting in my pick at the early end of the spectrum:

Monday, October 24th, 5 PM.

Have at it!

[SunnyUsa]

I think she should've withdrawn already....times a ticking

[SunnyUsa]

I think she should've withdrawn already....times a ticking

[birbear]

If it isn't already taken: Oct. 28, 5pm DC time.

[surely_you_jest]

28 October 05. 1630 hours, Eastern.

[governsleastgovernsbest]

You're in!

[surely_you_jest]

Well, after posting I noticed somebody else has that date / time group. Switch me to 28 Oct 05, 1635 hours, Eastern.

[governsleastgovernsbest]

Hmm. It does ring a bell, but I'm too lazy right now to go through the entire thread to check. That's alright, if that turns out to be the winning pick, we'll declare co-champions and you'll both get the jumbo-sized eraser!

[surely_you_jest]

Kewl.

[birbear]

super!

[BillyBoy]

I'll take a stab at it. Miers nomination is sent to the Senate floor without a recommendation (10-8 vote) for confirmation on November 11, 2005. The Senate recesses until Monday and Miers withdraws her name from consideration on the unlucky date of November 13, at 8:30 P.M. EST citing ack of preparation for duties (in reality, it is because she is likely be voted down by the full Senate)

To preemptive the negative press, Bush comes on TV immediately afterwards and pledges to name a replace on Monday.

Bush's Replacement choice: a dark horse candidate, Congresswoman Deborah D. Pryce (R-OH). She fills the "woman" and "consensus" candidate quotas, while being wholly divorced from charges of cronyism and having the legal experience (including past experience serving as Judge) that Miers lacked. Plus she's a member of Congress, endearing herself as one of their own. The very mildly pro-life nominee is slightly to the right of Miers with her "paper trail", while being "moderate" enough so the RATs can stomach her. So basically Bush picks another "safe" choice but one that nullifies both the GOP and Dem complaints about Miers. Bush announces her on November 14, 2005, 10:00 A.M. EST.

(Note: Just because I think Bush would pick Pryce, it doesn't mean I would pick her!!!)

[governsleastgovernsbest]

You're in, and in any case get a Virtual Prize for the most detailed scenario!

[PGalt]

Not gonna happen. Wouldn't be prudent.

Hooray President Bush!

[governsleastgovernsbest]

At this juncture? ;-)

[Reader of news]

Do you remember someone named John Bolton? There will be no withdrawal. Period. In addition, any hypothetical withdrawal only would hurt President Bush and the Republican Party.

[governsleastgovernsbest]

There's a big difference between Bolton and Miers. I'd bet that virtually every FReeper who is opposed to Miers supported Bolton. Why? Because he was a highly-competent, well-documented advocate of conservative views.

In other words, Bolton was everything that Miers is not. Miers is the anti-Bolton!

I like W, but I am a 'fan' of principles, not men.

[Reader of news]

When Miers is on the bench, a lot of conservatives will be sorry for the bashing against her and President Bush.

I meant the President won't withdraw her, in the same way he kept Bolton.

[PGalt]

:)

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

Outta here on 10/28; at or around 5:00 P.M. :)

[governsleastgovernsbest]

Outta here on 10/28; at or around 5:00 P.M. :)

I believe you're the third person to guess that exact time and date. Guess the thinking is after the market close on Monday? That's OK. I'll be so happy if she is withdrawn then that I'll be delighted to declare Tri-Champions and award each a jumbo eraser!

[governsleastgovernsbest]

You didn't respond to my point that there is a world of difference between Bolton and Miers. He was a courageous, on-the-record conservative. She is a cipher.