Posted on 09/22/2005 4:34:38 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nation's military who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
CAT V HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY PACKAGE #19
Discussion:
[NOTE: This analysis is based primarily on data from the Tropical Prediction Center. As my home office is still not set up, independent track and guidance analysis is not possible.]
RITA has likely peaked in intensity. That is the good news.
The bad news is the peak is at 175 MPH, and the storm has now taken a decided turn to the right. NHC advises the track above is to the left (West) of the guidance ensemble, and that Sabine Pass is the more likely target, as opposed to Galveston.
The model runs are on the following graphic:
New Orleans is likely to receive between 3 and 5 inches of rain.
The eastward shift in track guidance is resulting in RITA staying over the Loop Current longer than previously expected. This will keep the storm at its current intensity for the balance of the day.
Further strengthening is unlikely as an eyewall replacement cycle is underway--this phenomenon generally locks a hurricane at a specific intensity, if it doesn't actually weaken, until the process is complete.
RITA is expected to move off the Loop Current prior to landfall.
CURRENT FORECAST ESTIMATES PLACE THE WIND SPEED OF RITA AT LANDFALL AT 150 MPH--THIS IS JUST SHY OF CATEGORY V, BUT STILL STRONGER THAN KATRINA.
The cyclone's central pressure is 897 MB or 26.49" Hg. This makes RITA the third most intense hurricane in history. The diameter of hurricane force winds is 140 miles, while tropical storm winds have a diameter of 370 miles.
RITA is currently about 515 miles SE of Galveston and 615 miles ESE of Corpus Christi.
A HP center over western TX will likely continue steering RITA to the right even after landfall, keeping the system locked in eastern Texas and western Louisiana.
The current strike probabilities are summarized on the graphic that follows:
And a quick snap of Rita from space, in the IR spectrum, with false color enhancement--
Now for this thought...
FULLY 20 PERCENT OF THE UNITED STATES GASOLINE REFINING CAPACITY LIES IN THE PATH OF RITA
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
[See the opening rant for current NHC track map]
Discussion:
RITA has peaked and is starting to weaken as it moves off of the Loop Current.
HP over Texas continues to move the track to the right; landfall is now expected near the TX/LA border, though slighly on the TX side.
It is likely the combination of lower SSTs and increasing shear from the HP center will weaken RITA further before landfall. The storm would likely be at the low end of Category III (115 MPH) at landfall.
In New Orleans...
...Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible, along with surge heights of between 3 to 4 feet.
Officials are watching the levees...
...Army Corps of Engineers estimates are the levee system can currently handle up to 6 inches of rain and/or storm surge heights of up to 10 feet in New Orleans, but only a 6 foot surge could be handled in St. Bernard parish. Currently, about 10 percent of Orleans parish remains inundated from KATRINA.
...500 buses are available at the New Orleans convention center to facilitate the mandatory evacuation order in effect in the city--only 27 residents have taken advantage of the free ride out.
At the end of the Tony Snow show at noon, he announced that at that time the votes so far were 10 Yes and 3 NO.......Add Schumer's No to Kyle's upcoming Yes, I guess the running tally is now 11-4.
Shana and your dear grand daughters are in my prayers, kassie. And so are you.
Is your cell phone charged? Car gassed? Water, food, can opener, flashlights all ready?
...SENATE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE VOTES 13-5 TO SEND ROBERTS NOMINATION TO FULL SENATE.
Good news---one more to go
Rita downgraded to CAT 4 now
Good but still news of coming destruction spelled LARGE.
IR sat pictures show the wind field expanding. Though this generally equates to weakening, it also means the highest winds will last longer.
Thanks for great maps & your updates, chair. Iowa, I hope the surgery went well & you have minimal pain during the healing process.. Kassie, worried about you staying in S'land.. but prayers of course for your safety through it all. Just a quick check in.. hope all at ATRW are doing well..
I think our excursion did me a lot of good as well. Sometimes its good to get away from the news with all its negativity. It's a beautiful day here and I am glad we took advantage of the time.
Heavy rain falling in New Orleans...
They are going to lose the levees.
Freepmail Jane.
This is why we should send items to someone we know who can distribute them to those truly in need.
I didn't tell you all ...I got a phone call this AM...my boss wanted me to cover for him....as you know I will cover for people...I'm single and don't have kids...so if someone asks me....and it is a good reason like taking his kids to Hershey Park that's fine...but don't call me...and wake me up.....because he wanted to spend time with his wife....no no no!
Can't believe our two lefty senators actually voted yes........
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