Posted on 10/27/2004 10:39:00 PM PDT by Holden Magroin
Just when Bush was starting to pull away from Kerry, the liberal media reached into its bag of tricks and pulled out the long-overdue October Surprise: 380 tons of high explosives supposedly "disappeared" in some rathole named Al Qaqaa over a year-and-a-half ago.
The fallout from the Al Qaqaa story is real and already being reflected in the polls. Credible polls - not the Democrat-commissioned push-polls of "all adults" - show that Kerry has pulled ahead or extended his lead in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and even Ohio. I don't know the last when when a Republican won without Ohio.
The Bush campaign should have seen this coming a mile away. After all, the media is fiercely anti-Republican and has been shilling for Kerry since Day One. Plus, there are plenty of precedents for the media's use of the October Surprise. As late as October 2003, the Los Angeles Slimes alleged that Arnold Schwarzenegger had sexually harassed women on his movie sets.
After delivering what it believes is the coup de grace, the media is not suddenly going to give Bush a chance to respond. For the media is nothing more than the Democratic Party's Ministry of Truth. In order to neutralize the Al Qaqaa story, Bush needs to strip the bark off of Kerry. Here's what he has to do:
1. Run ads attacking Kerry's opposition to the death penalty. If Kerry opposes the death penalty, that means he opposes the death penalty for terrorists, too. Slam dunk, Bush.
2. Run ads attacking Kerry's opposition to Israel's security fence as "another barrier to peace." In South Florida, this could help Bush peel off just enough Jewish votes to put Florida out of reach from Kerry. Don't laugh: Democratic honchos are scared enough of losing Jewish votes that they've ordered their rent-a-mobs to carry "Jews for Kerry" signs.
3. Run ads about the Supreme Court. Of course, this is a double-edged sword; many people, unmarried career women in particular, are quaking in their high-heels about "back-alley abortions." But in the heavily Catholic Midwestern battleground states, this issue is a winner for the President. Many Catholics who are leaning towards Kerry because of the situation in Iraq might cast their ballots for Bush because of a once in a lifetime opportunity to dump Roe v. Wade.
Many Freepers have rightfully dismissed the Al Qaqaa story as sloppy journalism and a contract hit on Bush. But the masses are asses. The mere publication of such a story is enough to hurt a candidate. Unless Bush starts playing hardball, he will go down in defeat.
Where do you get this from? This is ONE poll, Zogby. The polls in Minnesota have stayed about the same at a Bush/Kerry tie.
Zogby | 10/24-10/27 601 LV 4.1 44 47 - Kerry +3
Humphrey Inst | 10/24-10/27 690 LV 4.1 47 44 5 Bush +3
Rasmussen | 10/20-10/26 500 LV 4.5 49 46 - Bush +3
I haven't the slightest idea what you're talking about.
Now if you'll excuse me, I have to write my vanity post on how the Red Sox can still pull it off.
The polls are all over the place like they've always been (especially Zogby), but must show Bush with a comfortable lead. I don't see ANY of the movement you're talking about, except in Zogby and ABC, which are both in bed with the Kerry campaign.
With that said, Bush needs to do a better job firing back at Kerry rather than just saying "we don't have all the evidence about what happened." He needs to call Kerry on his lies and point out how ironic it is that Kerry is suddenly very concerned about Iraq's weapons program and using words like "dangerous weapons, stockpiles, and nuclear". But Mr. Kerry, I thought Saddam wasn't a threat!!!!!
You know, if he gives it all he's got, I think rocky can beat Mr. T in the rematch!
Some of your respondents seem a little confused about Kerry's argument. He's never said that Saddam wasn't a threat to peace in the Middle-East (and, although he avoids saying it outright because of the sensititvities of some of his supporters, there's no way he would just pull the troops out). The problem with the explosives is that a) half-a-kg can down an airliner, and b) now that Iraq is a chaotic mess riddled with terrorists instead of a tightly-controlled dictatorship, the chances of the explosives being used to harm Americans are vastly greater.
Your proposals for Bush's campaign seems very consistent with the "the masses are asses" assumption that you take.
1. The terrorists we have most to worry about are either the leaders, who live in countries like Pakistan where the death penalty can be applied if we can win the war for hearts and minds, or are fanatics who are quite happy to die for their cause, so they are hardly likely to be deterred by the threat of a death penalty.
2. Kerry is not opposed to the security fence. He's opposed to it where it's being placed, that is, beyond the border and around additional Palestinian territory, effectively grabbing this land off the Palestinians. Because this upsets Palestinians somewhat (imagine Canada pushing a border fence around US territory) Kerry is correct in saying that this placement of the fence is a barrier to peace.
3. Admittedly, on this point you don't make any assumption about the masses being asses - you just assume that marginal voters would support Bush on this point, which may well be correct.
Returning to the questions of the "Saddam" threat to America and which masses are asses, it seems that a high proportion of Republicans actually believe that Saddam, who was effectively created by America, who liked to model himself on his idea of the suave yet tough American with the cigar in his mouth, and who really wanted nothing more than to be friends with America again (he'd make more money that way), was responsible for 9/11. The fact that so many Republicans actually believe this is not something to be proud of.
Is that why nobody responded to my "How Nixon Can Still Beat the Heat" vanity?
Hi, Holden:
Where's your brother, Pat?
Your info is about a dollar short and a day late. Kerry is definitely on the defensive again. Where he belongs
All President Bush has to do is keep reminding people how big a gutless bucket of pus Kerry is.
This is going to break much wider for the President than most polls and talking heads are predicting right now.
Jack.
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