Posted on 10/13/2004 9:14:04 AM PDT by David Noles
I HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE BATTLEGROUND STATES AND THEY SEEM TO BE TRENDING TO KERRY EVEN THOUGH BUSH HAS A SMALL LEAD IN THE NATIONAL POLLS POSTED ON THIS SITE.
COULD KERRY WIN THE ELECTORAL VOTE AND BUSH WIN THE POPULAR VOTE , A REVERSE OF 2000?
Before the first debate President Bush had settled into a 5-6 six point lead in the race as measured by the RCP Poll Average. Since the debate, the national polls have tightened considerably and heading into the second debate tonight the RCP Average shows President Bush holding a small 1-2 point lead.
It is only logical that we are now seeing Kerry's movement in the national polls carrying over into the first post-debate polls at the state level. This tightening of the race prompted us on Tuesday to move Iowa from Leaning Bush to a Toss Up, and on Wednesday to move Ohio from Leaning Bush to a Toss Up and Pennsylvania from Toss Up to Leaning Kerry.
There is no question that the situation for Senator Kerry has improved dramatically in the last week. From an Electoral Vote standpoint, however, he is still facing an uphill battle.
Our earlier analysis suggesting that the race basically boils down to Florida and Ohio stands. However, it looks as if the aftermath of the hurricanes may have given President Bush a decisive edge there, so in reality it is now all about Ohio. If Kerry doesn't win Ohio he will not be President.
On balance, President Bush still holds the better Electoral hand because the evidence is massing that he has successfully moved Wisconsin into his column. Because of the very real potential to win Wisconsin, Bush can now lose Ohio and still have a reasonable chance for victory.
The Ohio/Wisconsin swap garners Kerry 10 Electoral Votes and, using the 2000 results as a template taking into account reapportionment, that would leave Kerry the winner, 270-268. Because the U.S House of Representatives splits all ties in the Electoral College, Bush likely only needs 269 votes to be reelected.
Geography more than anything else gives Kerry the slight advantage in New Hampshire which moves the Electoral tally to Kerry 274 - Bush 264. So if Bush does lose Ohio, but brings in Wisconsin, he will have to swing FIVE Electoral Votes to win.
President Bush has four different scenarios through which he could gain these votes. The best bet right now looks to be Iowa's 7 Electoral Votes where two post-debate polls show Kerry ahead by one, and a Democratic post-debate poll shows Bush up 3. (Minnesota is also a possibility, but the truth is if Minnesota goes for Bush, Iowa will already be in the President's column.)
Scenario number two is to win New Mexico's 5 Electoral Votes. Right now, the post-debate polls there show a dead heat, Gallup shows Bush up 3 while the Albuquerque Journal has Kerry ahead by 3.
The next target is New Hampshire's 4 Electoral Votes and the 1 Electoral Vote available if the President can carry Maine's 2nd Congressional district. Post-debate NH polls show Kerry ahead slightly and a post-debate poll in Maine shows Kerry would win the state, but if the election were held today Bush would probably pick up 1 Electoral Vote by winning CD2.
The last shot for the President to grab those needed 5 EV's comes from Oregon, though in all likelihood if President Bush ends up in a position where he needs Oregon's Electoral Votes to get reelected, it probably won't happen.
All of these different options depend on the President holding on to the rest of his 2000 states, which in this type of election scenario seems likely, though Nevada could be the one state where Kerry could steal back those 5 Electoral Votes. The one post-debate poll there shows Bush leading by 4.
Bottom line: Kerry has effectively used the first debate to get himself back in the game, but he continues to remain at a structural disadvantage in the Electoral College. The quartet of Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico could be where this election is decided. If Bush does have a hold on Wisconsin, then even if Senator Kerry wins Ohio, he will also have to win both Iowa and New Mexico to deny Bush four more years.
(Pennsylvania and Florida are must wins for Kerry and Bush respectively, a Bush loss in Florida or a Kerry loss in Pennsylvania means the election is over.)
ARG has had kerry leading everywhere I think and I'm suspect of the Tribune poll, but where the HELL are the other polls. Is no one INTERESTED in OHIO?? Anyway, a Republican frim was on realclear and had Bush +6 or so in OH..they just won't include that in the average. We need a Mason-Dixon or a college or Gallup(only) poll from over there.
Well we have gone from a Chicken in every Pot... to... John Kerry will cure the sick and his miracles will allow those that cannot walk to be able to walk...
I suspect tonight he will promise to end world hunger...
The key to John Kerry is he always has a plan...
RC ignores the recent Strategic Vision poll (GWB +6//10-12/04) in deference to the left-leaning ARG and Trib polls . . . Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm?!
Strategic Vision Polls: http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/ohio.htm
The polls are probably being ginned to cover fraud, which I expect to be large. That said, there won't be enough to beat President Bush. Absent some sort of major gaffe coming out of the debate, he wins with 52=53%, and perhaps and electoral landslide. Check out the Iowa Electronic Market--it is moving his way today.
PS: I have said all along that the Clintons would ensure a Kerry defeat to clear the way fro Hillary in 2008; that they have not done anything negative to Kerry that you could attribute to them means they believe their own poll numbers show GWB winning without the need for an "October surprise" from them.
Go out and gas up your car, when you pay the tab, you will know what has turned this election in favor of hanoi john.
Ohio is really that state that will determine whether Bush gets another four years. No Republican has ever won the presidency without carrying Ohio. President Bush has got to win tonight's debate to make sure he keeps Ohio. The stakes are THAT high.
Realclear lists Strategic Vision as a Republican firm and does not put them in the mix. Like another poster said, they should since they have ARG in there, but I don't like the trend and I would love to see a poll like Strategic Vision from someone else, Mason-Dixon would be nice.
I agree with you that absent a major gaffe, the third debate should have no impact. But I think its fairly evident that the first debate was a complete disaster for Bush; he was ahead 6 points in several polls nationwide, had pulled ahead in PA, was close in MI and tied in NJ. In just one week, Kerry pulled even; now you can forget MI, PA is a downer, and NJ is still close. I do NOT want Kerry to win; but I agree with larry Sabato that Bush had better be 4-5 points ahead in the polls to offset union- and soros-sponsored turnout and remarkable levels of voter fraud.
What are you smoking?
Rasmussen runs a tracking poll in OH, yesterday it had the Pres at 50 and Kerry at 46, and Rasmussen leans slightly to the left
Reassuring. Is the Rass numbers on OH only available to premium folks?
Here is the link freeper Dale uses to document Chicago Tribune's bias.
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/cgi-bin/r.cgi/PollingFirmDetail.html?&PollingFirmID=65
you can also find links for like information on all the polling firms at the same site.
Yes and I believe they are 7 day tracking polls instead of three. I have heard that they have Bush by around 5.
I have also heard it said that the main reason that Florida is probably going to be for Bush is that W. spent the day of the debate touring hurricane relief centers.
Who knows?
I love this poll. Do we know more about the methodology?
Thanx. That's in line with Strategic Vision who has it +6. Still would like to see a poll to the good guys on realclear.
Thanks again.
If Bush wins the popular vote but loses the EC I wonder if conservatives will change their minds and support doing away with the EC. I tend to think that is the right thing to do. With all the biggest states trending Dem lately (except TX and possibly FL) it looks as if in the future the Repub. candidate for president will be at a disadvantage. Maybe even in this election, sad to say.
He can win without OH. He is ahead in both WI and NM. That would do it.
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