Posted on 09/21/2004 4:35:59 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nations' miltary who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
CAT I HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY #31
DISCUSSION
...JEANNE--A THREAT, NOT A THREAT, A THREAT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTS ON THIS SYSTEM...NOW A HURRICANE...ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE INTEREST WATCH AREA...
JEANNE has undergone explosive deepening of its central pressure, but the eye is still cloud covered and open to the south, indicating the presence of significant shear.
Yesterday, models came into good agreement. Today, models came into good disagreement.
The consensus--if it can really be called that--is what is being shown in the graphic. JEANNE will make a slow anticyclonic loop and then proceed westward. This is a very low confidence forecast, in the words of the NHC. But there's nothing better.
As stated earlier, JEANNE is in a relatively high shear environment. Several things could happen over the next several days. JEANNE could upwell significant amounts of cold water from staying in roughly the same spot for awhile, cutting off its "fuel," it could get sheared off by the SW flow over top of the cyclone, it could ingest the cold air from the shortwave to its north. Again, models are all over the place. NHC has prepared a forecast on the premise that none of these events will come to pass--the "safe" solution. It, like the path forecast, is of very low confidence.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[There are no watches or warnings associated with JEANNE at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 5 AM ET (0900Z)
Location: 27.6N by 70.0W, or 445 miles E of Great Abaco Island.
Vector: ENE at 6 MPH. Steering currents are falling apart, and JEANNE is expected to slowly turn to the E or SE later today.
Winds: 90 MPH 1-minute sustained. Some strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 972 MB or 28.70"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 100 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 240 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No part of JEANNE is within 124 nautical miles of any CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD site.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests along the United States Atlantic littoral from Florida to Virginia should monitor the progress of JEANNE.
Top Bush advisors are said to be pushing for the removal of the moderator from the debate to be held at Arizona State University. The moderator is from CBS. The President has not made any indication he supports this notion.
USA Today is running a story that CBS arranged for a confidential source to talk to Joe Lockhart, an aide to John Kerry, after the network received the "unauthenticated" (forged, actually) documents.
The Criminal Party admits the documents are false, but Terry McAwful is pressing on: "Now that we know what's not true, let's focus on the facts..." [Yeah, right.]
Meanwhile, the GOP issued the following statement:
We accept CBS's apology for a breach of the journalistic standards that provide the American people confidence in news organizations, but some disturbing questions remain unanswered.
CBS has now answered questions about the authenticity of the documents but questions remain surrounding who created the documents, who provided them to CBS and if Senator Kerry's supporters, Party committee, or campaign played any role.
Did Bill Burkett, Democrat activist and Kerry campaign supporter, who passed information to the DNC, work with Kerry campaign surrogate Max Cleland? Did Bill Burkett's talks with ‘senior’ Kerry campaign officials include discussions of the now discredited documents? Was the launch of the Democrat National Committee's Operation Fortunate Son designed with knowledge of the faked forged memos? Terry McAuliffe said yesterday that no one at the DNC or Kerry campaign, ‘had anything to do with the preparations of the documents,’ but what about the distribution or dissemination?
In an effort to regain the trust of the American people CBS should not only investigate the process that led to the use of these documents but they should identify immediately those engaged in possible criminal activity who attempted to use a news organization to affect the outcome of a Presidential election in its closing days.
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
ACK - Advisory number is #33.
Pumpkins
A woman was asked by a co-worker, "What is it like to be a Christian?"
The co-worker replied, "It is like being a pumpkin. God picks you from the patch, brings you in, and washes all the dirt off of you. Then he cuts off the top and scoops out all the yucky stuff. He removes the seeds of doubt,
hate, greed, etc., and then He carves you a new smiling face and puts His light inside of you to shine for all the world to see."
This was passed on to me from another pumpkin.
My sister and brother in law are vacationing in Myrtle Beach, so I will be watching your reports closely. Thanks for the updates.
I think I already am...
*wink*
Chair I really liked your new softwear with all the storms together.. I guess being a primary visual person, it is helpful for me.
How are you enjoying it so far? is it an expensive program? Not that it would be of interest to me right now... or ever. I just think it is great that computer software can provide so many people with connections with thier interests/avocations
DISCUSSION
...KARL MOVING NW...BETTER ORGANIZED...STILL OPEN TO THE SOUTH...
KARL is being subject to shear, despite global forecast models insisting there is none. The convection pattern has become non-symmetric as a result. KARL will also move over colder water late Wednesday and begin a weakening process, which would accelerate if the apparently occurring shear holds up.
KARL will likely become extratropical before heading up toward the GIUK gap.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[None at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 5 PM ET/AT (2100Z)
Location: 22.9N by 48.6W, or 990 miles ENE of the Lesser Antilles.
Vector: NNW at 16 MPH. A turn to the NNE is expected over the next 24 hours.
Winds: 120 MPH 1-minute sustained. Little change in strength is likely over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 948 MB or 27.99"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 170 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 580 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No portion of KARL is within 124 nautical miles of CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD stations.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
KARL is not a threat to any land areas within the tropical basins assigned to the NHC by the WMO.
That's great. You deserve to be happy. As for me, I'm pretty much now thinking I'll spend the rest of my life alone. At least for awhile, until I decide to put my heart out there again....:)
Sorry. That was an NHC print, not mine.
I just got my new, extremely sophisticated, hurricane tracking software today.
Complete with the 281-page manual.
Gonna take me a couple of days to figure out how to make it work.
But it is the best, bar none on the market.
And I have it.
</kid in candy store mode>
Really? I don't have the money to invest, but sounds like you have a head for business. I guess that's how people make money, and I guess that's why I'm just a working stiff, amazed at how some make their millions...LOL
Hi Lisa. I don't frequent this thread as much as I used to so maybe that's why I don't remember seeing your name here.
I just looked at your profile page. Nice. I can tell you like football and are a true Buckeye fan. I grew up in Nebraska so you know where my loyalties lie, even though I haven't lived there since the late 70s.
Woody Hayes, huh? I remember the day he punched one of his players. I hated him even more than I hated Bo Schembechler, but had no use for either of them back then. Now I miss some of those old coaches and great football games.
DISCUSSION
...LISA REMAINS ALMOST A HURRICANE...
LISA will continue westward. Some global models say LISA will disappear in 24 hours, but those have also insisted there is no HP ridge between LISA and KARL--there is. Indeed, the HP ridge will force LISA to continue westward. A disturbance, which will likely become FOURTEEN sometime tomorrow, will induce LISA to move slightly south before encountering a region of high pressure in the Caribbean. This latter feature will then push LISA NW.
The forecast motion of LISA, and the HP center over the Caribbean, will push the cyclone into open waters. The NW course it will take at VT forecast plus four days and beyond would aim it directly at C. Hatteras, but considering it would take LISA almost two weeks to get there at her current speed (and 10 days to get to Bermuda), the interest watch area will show only a threat to shipping at this time as it is far more likely than not the Coriolis curve will keep LISA away from CONUS.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[None at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 5 PM ET/AT (2100Z)
Location: 14.4N by 40.3W, or 1090 miles W of the Cape Verde Islands.
Vector: WNW at 8 MPH. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Winds: 70 MPH 1-minute sustained. Some strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 990 MB or 29.23"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: N/A.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 100 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No portion of THIRTEEN is within 124 nautical miles of CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD stations.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
LISA is only a threat to shipping at this time.
Yeah, Woody messed up. As a mom, if a coach hit my child like that, he would have the wrath of me to deal with..lol.
That said, I think Woody was way past his prime, and had should have gotten out of the game sooner.
That said, he did lots of good things in his lifetime. Supporting our soldiers in Vietnam, when it was very unpopular to do so in that era, was one of them.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Okay, Lisa, you are in B-I-G trouble now. You are a tropical storm/hurricane.
You better be nice!
:)
I love OS football. did a lot of college ball when i lived in NC. those people are truly crazy. Chapel Hill , NC State' etc.
Now I am still a football enthusiast but more so a band enthusiast.. love Script Ohio. Many HS bands emulate with varying degrees of success.
I'm always nice....:)
Knowing my sister and brother in law were going to be in Myrtle Beach vacationing, I've been checking out the NOAA weather site.
When I saw the next two names of the storms, I about fell over. Lisa and Matthew. My name, and then my son's name. I called my son in to see it. He couldn't believe it either!
I don't know how they name these storms, maybe Chairman can shed some light on it, but I don't ever recall these names being used before.
okay.. thanks. I recall you mentioning that you had ordered new software & when I saw a new presentation , thought it was "it".
Just learned on one of threads that all of these storms originate form Africa(never knew that).. and found out the other day from an australian poster that they have none of these storms.
Where is the justice?
Freepmail..
funny about storm names etc.. when the first sheep was clones the name was DOlly. Talk about taking some teasing
Two weather related toons:
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