Posted on 09/21/2004 4:35:59 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nations' miltary who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
CAT I HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY #31
DISCUSSION
...JEANNE--A THREAT, NOT A THREAT, A THREAT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTS ON THIS SYSTEM...NOW A HURRICANE...ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE INTEREST WATCH AREA...
JEANNE has undergone explosive deepening of its central pressure, but the eye is still cloud covered and open to the south, indicating the presence of significant shear.
Yesterday, models came into good agreement. Today, models came into good disagreement.
The consensus--if it can really be called that--is what is being shown in the graphic. JEANNE will make a slow anticyclonic loop and then proceed westward. This is a very low confidence forecast, in the words of the NHC. But there's nothing better.
As stated earlier, JEANNE is in a relatively high shear environment. Several things could happen over the next several days. JEANNE could upwell significant amounts of cold water from staying in roughly the same spot for awhile, cutting off its "fuel," it could get sheared off by the SW flow over top of the cyclone, it could ingest the cold air from the shortwave to its north. Again, models are all over the place. NHC has prepared a forecast on the premise that none of these events will come to pass--the "safe" solution. It, like the path forecast, is of very low confidence.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[There are no watches or warnings associated with JEANNE at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 5 AM ET (0900Z)
Location: 27.6N by 70.0W, or 445 miles E of Great Abaco Island.
Vector: ENE at 6 MPH. Steering currents are falling apart, and JEANNE is expected to slowly turn to the E or SE later today.
Winds: 90 MPH 1-minute sustained. Some strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 972 MB or 28.70"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 100 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 240 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No part of JEANNE is within 124 nautical miles of any CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD site.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests along the United States Atlantic littoral from Florida to Virginia should monitor the progress of JEANNE.
Top Bush advisors are said to be pushing for the removal of the moderator from the debate to be held at Arizona State University. The moderator is from CBS. The President has not made any indication he supports this notion.
USA Today is running a story that CBS arranged for a confidential source to talk to Joe Lockhart, an aide to John Kerry, after the network received the "unauthenticated" (forged, actually) documents.
The Criminal Party admits the documents are false, but Terry McAwful is pressing on: "Now that we know what's not true, let's focus on the facts..." [Yeah, right.]
Meanwhile, the GOP issued the following statement:
We accept CBS's apology for a breach of the journalistic standards that provide the American people confidence in news organizations, but some disturbing questions remain unanswered.
CBS has now answered questions about the authenticity of the documents but questions remain surrounding who created the documents, who provided them to CBS and if Senator Kerry's supporters, Party committee, or campaign played any role.
Did Bill Burkett, Democrat activist and Kerry campaign supporter, who passed information to the DNC, work with Kerry campaign surrogate Max Cleland? Did Bill Burkett's talks with ‘senior’ Kerry campaign officials include discussions of the now discredited documents? Was the launch of the Democrat National Committee's Operation Fortunate Son designed with knowledge of the faked forged memos? Terry McAuliffe said yesterday that no one at the DNC or Kerry campaign, ‘had anything to do with the preparations of the documents,’ but what about the distribution or dissemination?
In an effort to regain the trust of the American people CBS should not only investigate the process that led to the use of these documents but they should identify immediately those engaged in possible criminal activity who attempted to use a news organization to affect the outcome of a Presidential election in its closing days.
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
Amazing courage and faith in action. He is so unlike the weak, bully portrayed by educators and the newsmedia.
"Because we believe strongly in human dignity..."
"Costa Rica will introduce a ban at the UN - a comprehensive ban on human cloning - "no human life should ever be produced or destroyed for the benefit of (others)."
"To halt religious violence and ethnic cleansing..."Global peace operations initiative" - joint Italian-US.
"Called the "civil war" in Sudan "GENOCIDE."
"Peaceful nations must stand for the advance of democracy."
"People everywhere are capable of freedom, and worthy of freedom."
"This much we know for certainty, the desire for freedom resides in every heart."
"Across the earth - freedom will find a way."
"Freedom is finding a way in Iraq and Afghanistan...the liberty that many have won at a cost must be secured."
"They brutalized their people in defiance of all civilized norms."
"Instead of harboring terrorists, they're fighting terrorist groups..and this progress is good for the longterm security of all of us."
"To any who still question whether Muslim societies can be democratic societies, the Afghan people (are giving an answer.)
"The government of PM Allawi has earned the support of every nation that desires peace....the UN member nations must respond to PM ALlawi's request and do more to help (support a democrat Iraq).
"These selfless people are doing great work."
"..one of the main terrorist goals is to disrupt elections....and we can expect attacks to escalate.
"These attacks will not shake our (resolution).."
"The proper response is not to retreat, it is to prevail."
"America mourns the loss of (the bravest among us)."
"We will stand with the people of Afghanistan and Iraq until their (hopes for freedom) are fulfilled."
340 posted on 09/21/2004 11:18:59 AM EDT by Ragtime Cowgirl (The American president saved me from Saddam's regime. - Hoshyar Zakhoi-Duhok/Iraq, 9/11/04)
ARE YOU LISTENING DNC ~~ CBS ~~ RATHER?
You are TERRORISTS!
Thanks so much for the link.
No, they are too busy making up lies to report as truth and news.
You are so right, they are TERRORISTS.
I appreciate you taking the time to post this. I wouldn't have wanted to miss it.
Jem, When I heard him say that...I thought the same thing.
BTW, I'm not sure if dan heard you, but I sure did....LOL
I'm taking a break from mounds of laundry and eating lunch.
I love how he said that so obliquely that no one will be able to say he was talking to them but so obviously that everyone knows what he meant. Brilliant.
>>"..one of the main terrorist goals is to disrupt elections
I was just at the latest electoral map site and Bush has 330 electoral votes with two states leaning Bush - but in the Kerry column since they suspeceted outliers (NJ and NH)
So Kerry has to make up 80 electoral votes - or thereabouts and spend money/time in States he thought he had locked up.
Can he afford to lose PA, OH, WI, NJ ???
DISCUSSION
...JEANNE SOLUTION SOLIDIFYING...THREAT TO NORTH CAROLINA INCREASING...HOWEVER JEANNE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BEFORE IT GETS THERE...
JEANNE is apparently undertaking the slow anticyclonic loop that has been forecast for awhile. The eye is ragged and cloud-filled, so it doesn't seem the cyclone has moved beyond category I status.
The trough that has captured KARL has moved east, beyond JEANNE, so HP is building to its north--the same HP center that has brought unseasonably cold weax to eastern CONUS.
JEANNE will move SE and then S in response to the presence of this powerful surface anticyclone; however, the anticyclone is moving eastward, in the logical progression of synoptic features in the mid-latitudes. As it does so, JEANNE will slowly move around the southern periphery of this structure. Finally--global models agree, more or less, with this solution.
As JEANNE heads toward the North Carolina coastline, it will encounter increasing shear, and weaken. The open question is how fast will JEANNE move toward North Carolina. If it moves faster than forecast, it will encounter stronger shear as it will be under more of the circulation of the aforementioned anticyclone (HP center), and will weaken faster.
Regardless, if JEANNE reaches the North Carolina coast (also a somewhat, but now lesser open question), it will very likely be only a tropical storm.
For now, the interest watch area will be shown as before, but it will likely be reduced in scope tomorrow.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[There are no watches or warnings associated with JEANNE at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 11 AM ET (0900Z)
Location: 27.5N by 69.3W, or 485 miles E of Great Abaco Island.
Vector: ESE at 7 MPH. A gradual turn to the SE or S with a decrease in forward speed is forecast over the next 24 hours.
Winds: 90 MPH 1-minute sustained. Some strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 972 MB or 28.70"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 90 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 240 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No part of JEANNE is within 124 nautical miles of any CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD site.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests along the United States Atlantic littoral from Florida to Virginia should monitor the progress of JEANNE.
disrupt elections
I think he chose that phrasing on purpose so we would make that linkage. Disrupting elections is EXACTLY what the DNC ~ Rather ~ CBS have tried to do.
No, I don't think he can. I think he knows he is losing big time. I think that is why they tried this desperation, illegal fraud on 60 Minutes. They know they have lost the election unless something major happens. They thought they could get away with it. They might if we don't keep pressing the issue. If I were Bush, I would step up my personal security.
DISCUSSION
...KARL A LITTLE WEAKER...
KARL continues along track guidance. Shear is working on the system, and it is not as impressive in the NW and SW sectors, and the eye is not visible. Shear will likely decrease today.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[None at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 11 AM ET/AT (1500Z)
Location: 21.4N by 48.0W, or 1005 miles ENE of the Lesser Antilles.
Vector: NNW at 14 MPH. A turn to the north is expected in about 24 hours.
Winds: 125 MPH 1-minute sustained. Strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 944 MB or 27.88"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 170 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 460 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No portion of KARL is within 124 nautical miles of CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD stations.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
KARL is only a threat to shipping.
DISCUSSION
...SHEAR DECREASING AGAINST LISA...SOME STRENGTHENING...
LISA remains a tiny storm.
Track guidance remains as before.
Strength guidance continues as before, with the same caveat. LISA must survive shear that will start impinging against the system in a couple of days. If it does, it will be a hurricane.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[None at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 11 AM ET/AT (1500Z)
Location: 14.2N by 39.7W, or 1055 miles W of the Cape Verde Islands.
Vector: WNW at 10 MPH. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Winds: 70 MPH 1-minute sustained. Little change in strength is likely during the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 990 MB or 29.23"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: N/A.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 100 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No portion of KARL is within 124 nautical miles of CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD stations.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of LISA.
I agree - wouldn't the scenario you described by a sight to watch?
Where did everybody go? Yoohoo!
...THE CONGRESS HAS PASSED LEGISLATION OUTLAWING THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA...
...THE ARREST OF THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE HEADQUARTER STAFF BEGINS IN FIVE MINUTES...
Hello--is this thing on?
I always thought we could outlaw the Dems on Constitutional grounds
LOL!!! that should bring out of the woodwork!
FEDS HUNT FOR MAN IN BUSH THREAT...
Not a joke, real story!
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