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Posted on 11/02/2026 5:52:08 AM PST by MinorityRepublican
Republicans are trailing Democrats in seven key Senate battlegrounds, including longtime GOP strongholds Texas and Kansas, according to a poll released Sunday, just days before the midterm elections.
The New York Times/Siena poll found Democratic candidates leading in five states currently represented by Republican senators — Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas — while the race in Iowa is virtually tied. In Michigan, the only Democratic-held Senate seat surveyed, the party's candidate holds a double-digit lead.
Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute, said the results suggest Democrats could capture control of the Senate, though he cautioned that several races remain within the poll's margin of error.
"While a blue wave and Democratic control of the Senate is, according to our polls, a distinct possibility, with so many races within the poll's total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible," Levy said.
The findings are particularly striking in Texas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, and Kansas, where Democrats have not won a Senate race since 1932.
In Texas, Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 43% among likely voters. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 44%.
The poll also found former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Republican Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio, 49% to 44%, while Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, 51% to 45%.
In Alaska, former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 48% to 46%. Iowa is even closer, with Democrat Josh Turek edging Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson 48% to 47%.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds the largest lead of the seven Senate races surveyed, leading Republican Mike Rogers 53% to 42%.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
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These polls seem like they are all over the place. I don’t trust any of them.
There they go. Fox flashing the public again, and they are still ugly.
Fake poll.
Texas is not in play.
A New York Times poll is worth about as much as the dog crap on your lawn, maybe less.
Polls are garbage, and they know it.
Likely of these states flipping in order:
Alaska - Prior to the whole Fake Candidate fiasco, this was the most likely to flip. Now the Governor has stated he won’t certify the election due to this, so who knows. However, 1/3 of Alaskans are on some sort of assistance, and GOP changes to social welfare programs absolutely could result in a backlash that would cause this state to buck its norms, and due to rank choice voting even of the GOP wins the first round, if they don’t crack 50% its likely they would lose.
Ohio - Less likely, and no real structural reason for it to flip, however an absolute TURD at the top of the ticket absolutely does leave the potential to drag down every race on the ticket. There is no doubt that Vivek will cost the GOP winnable house races in OH this cycle, as well as state house and state senate seats, even if he does manage to win the Governorship. It remains to be seen if this turd will cost the GOP the Senate seat as well.. I don’t think it will, but if Huston loses, Vivek being on the ticket absolutely will be a contributing factor to it.
ME - Honestly I see this as doubtful to flip. Had the fact Collins voted for impeachment come into play then I would have said she likely would be gone. Every GOP Senator that voted to impeach that has faced voters has been ejected except Murkowski, and she only survived by less than a point... ranked choice made her win way bigger than it actually was in the final round. However, this hasn’t even been brought up in this cycle, at all, so, I suspect she’ll win re-election comfortably. But will rank this as 3rd most likely to flip (Though I believe it is unlikely). Yes polling has her behind, but she was down 5 I believe in the last election and never was ahead, but ended up winning by 8 points, so, we shall see.
Texas - honestly I don’t see Texas flipping at all, but I’d say its likely to flip is higher than Kansas. Had Democrats actually picked a reasonable candidate here, rather than a whackadoodle they are trying to sell as reasonable, they might have had a chance here. Mainly due to the fact that Paxton is just hated by the GOP establishment of TX... If TX goes blue, its completely on the GOP establishment of Texas playing sour grapes.
Kansas - Don’t see this one flipping at all, no matter what the polling says, If this end up within 3 I’ll be amazed.
So, for the record the states I think MIGHT flip, you have AK and OH, and honestly I don’t believe OH will flip... the rest of them are just IMHO Pipe dreams. AK prior to the hanky panky was probably the most likely of these to flip.. but even it was not a certainty, now with this hanky panky stuff, who knows what’s going to happen there.
Finally, MI was always going to go Republican... Their candidate is absolutely unelectable statewide in MI... I don’t care what the polls are saying... Never believed for a single second this race was in question. So, Dems will get NC, GOP will flip MI... for a wash... meaning end of the day IMHO Dems may pick up one or 2 Senate seats at most, but even they are not guaranteed. I see zero math where dems take the Senate.
I could end up eating crow, but I just don’t see it. We’ll know in a few days.
Their polls kinda suck, but if even somewhat right, you are in not for just a bad night, but many years of suffering. And the admin has no one to blame but themselves.
Some guy on Fox last night was going over each of the close Senate races and ended up predicting a 50-50 tie in the Senate (meaning that Vance can break any tie votes). That was with Talarico winning in Texas.
Cmon man it is the ny times of course they are fair lol
Fox is living in a fantasy world.
“Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute, said the results suggest Democrats could capture control of the Senate, though he cautioned that several races remain within the poll’s margin of error.
‘While a blue wave and Democratic control of the Senate is, according to our polls, a distinct possibility, with so many races within the poll’s total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible,’ Levy said.”
So, the pollsters don’t know. The NY Slimes doesn’t know. Nobody but God knows how this turns out, and ‘We The People’ won’t know until Tuesday evening, maybe Wednesday IF we’re lucky.
*Rolleyes*
IGNORE these idiots and get your BUTTS to the polls, People!
Of course it's a fake poll. We don't like what it says so it has to be fake!
There is way more support for Republicans than for Democrats. The controlling factor is voter motivation.
I heard Trump say on Gutfeld this weekend (great show, BTW!) that there are tens of millions of evangelicals and 40% of those don’t vote. That is absolutely galling.
Do they not know what is at stake?
Kamala Harris is going to win Iowa.
Fox News in the bag for the Democrats. 🙄
Agree. We likely retain 52 seats.
For at least a decade Fox polls have been among the worst, and always favorable to Democrats.
Yeah, but I remember in 2016 that "experts" said that Mrs. Bill Clinton might be the first president to win all 50 states.
+100
I hope the GOP learns an important lesson: You go leftist - economic interference and “protect the workers because people can’t be trusted to make their own financial decisions” and various other forms of “daddy government” (vs the traditional leftist “mommy government”)... you need to make sure the goodies reach the incapable pockets.
The REAL leftists keep trying it; I hope the GOP learns its lesson and abandons it.
POLLING COMPANIES HAVE ADMITTED THE POLLS ARE FAKE.
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