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Posted on 03/30/2026 3:54:49 PM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
Dear friends and family,
We’re now entering the fifth week of the war, and you’re probably asking how are we feeling. Is the early‑war euphoria still there? How is the sense of national resilience doing?
It’s hard to describe, but the dominant feeling is fatigue. There’s a well‑known phrase among the Jewish people—Am Yisrael Chai, “The Nation of Israel Lives.” Lately, a meme has been circulating in social media: “The Nation of Israel Lives… but it is DYING for some sleep.” That pretty much captures the mood.
Iran has been firing about 10–15 missiles a day for weeks. Typically, it’s two missiles per barrage, seven or eight times a day, spaced a few hours apart. That means people are running to shelters around the clock. It’s nearly impossible to sleep more than a couple of hours at a time. Some nights they fire every two hours. Many people have safe rooms, but a large portion of the population must run to basement shelters or neighborhood shelters multiple times each night.
The situation varies by region. The north is under constant Hezbollah fire—about once an hour. Tel Aviv and Jerusalem get hit two to four times a day. Eilat is targeted every two days or so. Our kibbutz has had only three alerts in the past four weeks. Nationwide, there have been roughly 300–400 Iranian missiles launched at us, thousands from Hezbollah, and thousands of suicide drones since the beginning of the war. Mostly targeting civilians – not military targets. Again, when our civilians are being targeted the world is silent. No UN resolutions. No campus protests. The same is true of the poor people of Iran. When the regime gunned down thousands, if not of tens of thousands, of peaceful protesters, the “progressives” in the west didn’t bat an eyelash. (I have no problem criticizing my political camp when necessary).
So far, fewer than twenty people in Israel have been killed. Most casualties were people who couldn’t reach shelter in time—often elderly individuals with mobility issues. In one case, a half‑ton ballistic missile scored a direct hit on a neighborhood shelter. Some people inside were killed, but remarkably, most survived. One of our strongest weapons in this war are our shelters.
Schools remain closed, and many businesses are only partially functioning. One parent must stay home, and in many young families, one parent is serving in the reserves, leaving the other to manage the children alone. The country is attempting online schooling through a Zoom‑like system, but it’s not going well. Teachers struggle to engage students; students don’t want to be on Zoom; families with several children and limited devices can’t manage the logistics; and many parents working remotely need the same devices for their jobs. It’s frustrating for everyone—parents, kids, and teachers alike.
Another consequence of the war is the near‑shutdown of international flights. This has affected us personally. We had planned a kibbutz trip to Tbilisi, Georgia in mid‑March. Eva and Ayala were supposed to attend the World Ice Skating Championships in Prague this week. Next week we were meant to fly to the U.S. for a big family gathering at our son’s house for Passover. All of these plans were canceled because our flights were canceled. It may sound like a small sacrifice compared to those losing homes or loved ones, but it still takes an emotional toll.
Militarily, the United States and Israel have been very successful. We have complete control of Iranian airspace and are striking nuclear facilities, missile launchers, depots, and military industries. We’ve also targeted the regime’s leadership, the Revolutionary Guards, and the Basij—the secret police force responsible for suppressing protests and opposition.
The problem is that the target list seems endless. Iran is geographically the size of Europe. There’s always another factory, another armory, another general. So what is the endgame? The goals of the war were never clearly articulated to the public. It’s not even clear if they were fully defined by Trump and Netanyahu at all. Perhaps they hoped for regime change, but that was never realistic without a costly ground invasion. Without clear goals, it’s impossible to know when they’ve been achieved. Degrading Iran’s capabilities is not a clearly defined objective.
For Israelis, one objective is obvious: removing Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium—enough for roughly ten atomic bombs. Commentators disagree on whether Iran is months or years away from weaponization. But one outcome of the war, so far, is clear: the new leadership in Iran is even more extreme than the assassinated Ayatollah, and their takeaway from this conflict is that they must build a bomb as quickly as possible. If the war ends with Iran still in possession of this material, it will be a disaster for Israel. They will rebuild, complete the final enrichment stages, and weaponize the material. It’s unclear whether Israel and the U.S. have a realistic plan to remove it.
For America, the war has already resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off 20% of the world’s oil supply. This was predictable—or should have been. It’s Iran’s strongest card and it should have been clear they would play it. One hopes the Pentagon has a plan, but so far it’s not evident. If the war ends with Iran able to blockade global oil, it will be a devastating outcome. It would mean Iran has weakened the U.S. and Europe and gained enormous leverage over the West.
Whether America can reopen the Strait and whether the enriched uranium can be removed are open questions. If not, Iran essentially wins. They will have survived the bombing with their regime intact, and their neighbors—Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Egypt, Syria—will conclude that Iran is more powerful than the U.S. and Israel, and must be feared and accommodated.
Another development that hasn’t received enough attention is Iran’s missile strike on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, where U.S. B‑2 bombers are based. It’s 2,500 miles from Iran—the same distance from Iran to Berlin. Please think about that for a moment. These were not designed for Israel; we are half that distance. They were designed to threaten Europe. Apparently, the regime’s long‑term plan is to become a nuclear threat to Europe.
I know this letter is getting long, but a few final points. Hezbollah has opened a front against us. After October 7, 2023 we fought them until a ceasefire was brokered by France, the U.S., and Lebanon, with guarantees that Hezbollah would be disarmed by Lebanon. We believed we had significantly weakened them. But now they are firing hundreds of rockets into northern Israel daily—sometimes twice an hour, but generally about once an hour. Residents of the north cannot leave their shelters at all. The flight time from Lebanon for a rocket is under a minute, so there is almost no warning. Life there is unimaginable.
Israelis are angry. We thought the Hezbollah threat had been neutralized. It’s true they are only a fraction of what they were on October 6, 2023—when they had 150,000 missiles and a commando force preparing to invade. Now they have “only” tens of thousands of missiles, and their commando force has been decimated and pushed back 15 kilometers from our border. A surprise invasion is no longer possible. But they remain strong—stronger than the Lebanese army, which has no ability to rein them in, even if it wants to.
And in all this, Gaza has almost faded from public consciousness. Trump’s agreement secured the release of all our hostages and left Israel occupying half of Gaza temporarily. According to the agreement, Hamas was supposed to disarm and be replaced by a moderate government. Neither happened. Israel doubted it would. It seems that no international force is strong enough to disarm or dislodge Hamas. So far they are not giving up their control of Gaza or their weapons. They are rebuilding—recruiting, manufacturing rockets, policing the streets. As with Hezbollah, it appears the cycle has not been broken. The seeds of the next rematch are already being sewn.
This is why many Israelis believe we must confront their sponsor—Iran. Iran is the head of the snake. Without Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas would lose funding and training. Despite the exhaustion and the missiles raining down, all Israelis want to see this war through. We are willing to endure hardship to remove the Iranian regime. Personally, I think that’s a very high bar. We may need to accept that the regime will survive, rebuild, and that Israel and the West will have to find a way to manage that reality. The only silver lining is that most Iranians want the regime gone. Maybe one day they’ll succeed in getting control of their country again.
It is impossible to know what Trump is planning. Is he going to decide that he has done enough and will end the war or will he send in the Marines? Who knows?
Glen
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"Words Matter" isn't that someone's username?
So I predict one unanticipated consequences of this conflict, if regime change is not achieved, will be a nuclear-armed Saudi Arabia, and maybe the UAE or even other Gulf states. Not good.
The goals of the war were never clearly articulated to the public.
Stop the nuclear threat and destroy their ability to make more.
Destroy their long range missiles and drones and destroy their ability to make more.
Prevent them from being able to exerercize power outside of their borders.
I think, prevent them from blackmailing the world.
the new leadership in Iran is even more extreme than the assassinated Ayatollah
So I predict one unanticipated consequences of this conflict, if regime change is not achieved, will be a nuclear-armed Saudi Arabia, and maybe the UAE or even other Gulf states. Not good.
It was well understood where we were heading.
I know of Iranians *personally* who still have loved ones in the country, who are praying VERY hard both for change AND for peace. One even having gone to church here for the first time during Operation Midnight Hammer last summer.
I don’t believe God will just ignore their prayers. He has His ways...
No, Donald Trump did not claim the U.S. destroyed 95% of Iran’s missiles on the first day of Operation Epic Fury. Instead, U.S. officials reported significant reductions in Iranian attacks over time, with drone assaults down 95% and ballistic missile attacks down 90% after about two weeks, not on the first day. On March 13, 2026, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that Iranian one-way attack drones were down 95% and missile launches down 90% compared to earlier levels, reflecting cumulative effects rather than first-day results.
Trump made broader claims, such as having "destroyed 100% of Iran’s military capability," but these were fact-checked and contradicted by intelligence assessments.
Exclusive reports from Reuters and The Guardian indicate U.S. intelligence can only confirm about a third of Iran’s missile arsenal destroyed, far below 95%.
Trump acknowledged that even a small remaining capability (e.g., 1%) poses a serious threat, especially to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
https://search.brave.com/search?q=did+trump+claim+usa+destroyed+95%25+of+iran%27s+missiles+in+the+1st+day+of+epic+fury&summary=1&conversation=08e9a9e6cb091e7635d0c9905a7c2f2c470c
Comment:
The Reuters / Guardian report is highly misleading. A great many Iranian missiles not counted as destroyed are counted as "inaccessible". Buried under rubble, it's very likely they cannot be used even if dug up. Also, it's the launchers that really count.
IMO the best guide is the reduction in quantity launched. At present, Iran has just enough missile launch capacity to cause the harassment described in the letter. They could literally be doing it with a dozen surviving launchers. But, WE have a fearful amount of air power operating out of RAF Fairford, UK, now, conducting bunker buster strikes.
Trump does exaggerate a lot. The guy has a lot of great qualities, and a few weaknesses. But to be fair, he'll usually eventually "get real" when it comes to points like the one about the Strait of Hormuz.
I've got a hilarious but frustrating thread running right now that belies your claims. The goals of the war have not been articulated, and people are beclowning themselves saying otherwise without then being able to articulate the goals themselves. Instead everyone just makes up what they think the goals should be as a substitute.
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