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Economists Are Shocked, Shocked by Who Is Paying the Tariffs
Commonplace.org ^ | Nov 23, 2025 | Matthew Lynn

Posted on 11/25/2025 10:17:41 AM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

It was, by any measure, a lot of red ink. When Volkswagen announced its third-quarter profits at the end of October, the German auto giant said it anticipated heavy losses for this year. The reason? It is taking a 5 billion euro hit from tariffs imposed in the American market. Likewise, the German sportswear manufacturer Adidas warned of a 120 million euro hit to its earnings, in part because the levies its trainers now face in the United States, while Toyota warned of a $9 billion hit from tariffs.

For anyone following the corporate earnings season over the last month, a clear theme has emerged from the giants of European and Asian industry: President Trump’s tariff regime is starting to significantly reduce their profits. But hold on. Weren’t we told that tariffs would simply be passed straight on to American consumers in the form of higher prices? That they were a tax on ordinary working people? Instead, it is already becoming clear that at least some of the costs are being paid by foreign conglomerates and even by foreign governments.

When President Trump first unveiled his sweeping tariff regime on (the admittedly oddly named) “Liberation Day” back in April, the economic establishment went into a predictable meltdown. From the editorial pages of the Financial Times to the seminar rooms at Harvard, the verdict was unanimous: this was simply a tax increase by another name, and American consumers would have to foot the bill. The Peterson Institute joined the chorus in predicting disaster. True, the declarations were always hedged with plenty of academic caveats. But the overall impression was that tariffs would prove catastrophic for the American economy.

And yet, several months into what amounts to the most dramatic shift in American trade policy in generations, the evidence is starting to...

(Excerpt) Read more at commonplace.org ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: commerce; domestic; prices; spammingfr; tariffs; trade

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1 posted on 11/25/2025 10:17:41 AM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Liberals believe that corporate income taxes are paid by evil corporations while tariffs are paid by starving and destitute women and orphans.


2 posted on 11/25/2025 10:24:23 AM PST by Raycpa
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Surprise, surprise, surprise! 🙄


3 posted on 11/25/2025 10:31:15 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

I know there are some stop-gap measures while negotiations go on - but I also know as someone that has a US company - we pay the tariffs - they get passed on as higher prices.

Tariffs don’t cause long term inflation (just a one time price jump) - long term they actually cause recessions and war.

If you read the history of what happened last time - 1920s - the result was not good.


4 posted on 11/25/2025 10:32:51 AM PST by paulk ( If one fails to learn self discipline, Don't worry; there will be others to boss you around. -kps )
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

It always seems to me that economists (ex. Paul Krugman) don’t really understand anything about how markets work or how money works. It’s not a science. I don’t feel that we have ever learned anything new or solved any problems. Adam Smith knew stuff in 1776 and we haven’t really advanced much since then.

I see “economics” as really just a tactic of political science. The politicians manipulate the public by making promises and by saying “Look at this pie chart my economist made. You can see that my policies will work.” I think it’s not much deeper than that.


5 posted on 11/25/2025 10:36:18 AM PST by ClearCase_guy (Democrats seek power through cheating and assassination. They are sociopaths. They just want power.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

There is such a thing call competition!
If there is viable domestic source, the imports have to compete with it!
So they cannot price their products too high!
Tariffs are not exactly like taxes.
They are taxes on imports only!
To help domestic producers, to help US workers!


6 posted on 11/25/2025 10:38:12 AM PST by AZJeep (sane )
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Trump knew this instinctively. He never vocalized any of the three dynamic effects described in the article, but he knew that they would keep domestic price increases in check. Another (what should be an) embarrassment for the “experts.”


7 posted on 11/25/2025 10:38:37 AM PST by trad_anglican
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To: paulk

“If you read the history of what happened last time - 1920s - the result was not good.”

____________

Yeah, because 1920’s and 1930’s American economy is 2025 American economy, eh.


8 posted on 11/25/2025 10:39:40 AM PST by jacknhoo (Luke 12:51; Think ye, that I am come to give peace on earth? I tell you, no; but separation.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

I’ve been pointing it out since February.
Tariffs are a fee to participate the marketplace called USA.


9 posted on 11/25/2025 10:43:03 AM PST by Cletus.D.Yokel (The Democrats' official policy is now, “Hate, Violence and Murder". Change my mind.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

I was mocked here back in April when I said many of these tariffs would be eaten by the companies exporting to the US. It depends on the product, but many companies chose lower profit margins over lower sales. They still make more money (in total) that way than they would if they increased prices by 10, 15, or 25%.

Lost market share is hard to get back.


10 posted on 11/25/2025 10:43:23 AM PST by SomeCallMeTim
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

“Core wholesale prices rose less than expected in September; retail sales gain”

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/core-wholesale-prices-rose-less-than-expected-in-september-retail-sales-gain.html

“Core wholesale prices rose less than expected in September, indicating a potential cooling in pipeline inflation pressures, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.

The producer price index, a measure of what producers get for final demand goods and services, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% on the month, in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate.”


11 posted on 11/25/2025 10:44:23 AM PST by CFW
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To: paulk

If you read the Constitution, it is very clear that tariffs are supposed to be the main and key source of federal government revenue.

Just about everything else is at the discretion of the states or citizens.


12 posted on 11/25/2025 10:47:20 AM PST by Don W (When blacks riot, neighborhoods and cities burn. When whites riot, nations and continents burn)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
Communist china ended up with one of the lowest tariff rates from Us. The tariffs aren't high enough 'force' more domestic production.

A measurement of tariff success, should be domestic production valuations and increases. Now, its merely a revenue scheme.

13 posted on 11/25/2025 10:47:54 AM PST by Theoria
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To: SomeCallMeTim

“Lost market share is hard to get back.”


Bingo! Companies will pay a little (or even a lot) more to keep their market share.

Related:

“Best Buy hikes sales forecast as shoppers upgrade tech, splurge on devices”

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/-best-buy-bby-q3-2026-earnings-.html


14 posted on 11/25/2025 10:54:20 AM PST by CFW
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To: paulk
long term they actually cause recessions and war.

That's simply a post hoc propter hoc fallacy.

The second war in Europe was due to the economic and political destabilization of Germany and central Europe caused by the WWI. Versailles humiliated the Germans and its reparations destroyed the German economy.

Similarly, although it joined the Allies in WWI, Japan was basically shut out of the "whites only" negotiations at Versailles and did not obtain the recognition as a first-rank world power it sought. That combined with the political instability of Meiji Japan produced WWII in the Pacific.

The tariffs were only salt in already festering wounds.

15 posted on 11/25/2025 11:05:01 AM PST by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: pierrem15

Britain and France had it in for Germany ever since Germany united in 1871, they didn’t want a ‘new kid on the block’.

World would have been much better off if Britain and Germany were allies, and worked out their spheres of influence.


16 posted on 11/25/2025 11:06:56 AM PST by dfwgator ("I am Charlie Kirk!")
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To: ClearCase_guy

Krugman and the rest of his fellow Keynesian economists can’t admit huge spending and government intervention in the economy has been a huge failure.

You’re absolutely right it’s all about politics to these people. They manipulate the American public by giving their political spin on the economic numbers. Oh how I wish Milton Friedman or Friedrich Hayek were still around to debate and destroy this liar Krugman!


17 posted on 11/25/2025 11:30:02 AM PST by dowcaet
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Tariffs are another gift for the price gougers sometimes they don’t even need on.


18 posted on 11/25/2025 11:47:17 AM PST by Vaduz (?.)
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To: Vaduz
Tariffs are another gift for the price gougers sometimes they don’t even need on.

What is a "price gouger?"

19 posted on 11/25/2025 11:49:46 AM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (I have no answers. Only questions.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

One who jacks up prices because they want to for profit.

Ever notice off brand prices don’t increase.


20 posted on 11/25/2025 12:00:45 PM PST by Vaduz (?.)
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