Posted on 06/24/2025 10:49:10 AM PDT by Red Badger
Experts say it will take years for Tehran to replenish its missile supplies, but it can still terrorize Israel and others with cluster warheads and short-range rockets
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With the Iran-Israel conflict possibly brought to a halt by a US-brokered ceasefire on Tuesday, questions remain over the true condition of Iran’s missile arsenal after nearly two weeks of punishing exchanges.
Iran’s missile salvos proved the destructive power of its long-range missiles, turning buildings into rubble and killing dozens, even as Israel has claimed to take out much of its stockpile and the means to launch.
The ceasefire, confirmed by both the Prime Minister’s Office and Iranian state media, was announced by US President Donald Trump early Tuesday, though exchanges of fire continued for hours afterward.
In the hour before the ceasefire was set to take effect, Iran fired six separate salvos at Israel, totaling some 20 missiles. The use of successive small barrages aimed at different parts of the country, which had also been employed a day earlier, marked a stark shift from the early days of the war, when Iran would seek to overwhelm Israel’s missile defenses with large-scale volleys of up to 60 missiles at a time.
According to some experts, the apparent change in strategy was a reflection of Iran’s attempts to squeeze what it could out of an increasingly depleted missile stockpile. In Tuesday morning’s case, the attack destroyed an apartment building in Beersheba and killing four people who had been sheltering in safe rooms.
“If you hit something in a populated area and you miss by 300 meters, you’re still going to hit something. You’re still going to have spectacular footage,” Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told The Times of Israel.
From high-impact strikes on urban centers to whispers of hypersonic and cluster munitions, the 12-day air war became a showcase of Iran’s firepower and a backdrop for its propaganda.
But behind the dramatic footage of collapsed residential buildings and competing claims from Tehran and Jerusalem lies a more complex picture: What remains of Iran’s arsenal? And what lessons will shape the next phase of strategic competition — or conflict?
Lighter and longer
Throughout the 12-day conflict, Iran used a combination of medium- and long-range ballistic missiles, including the Ghadr and Emad, both of which are modernized variants of the older Shahab-3. While these missiles are not new designs, they remain highly lethal if not intercepted.
“There is nothing special about those missiles,” Tal Inbar, a veteran expert in aviation policy, space, and missile issues, told The Times of Israel, “except for the fact that if one were not intercepted by missile defense systems… in urban areas, the damage is devastating.”
What makes these missiles so destructive, Inbar explained, isn’t sophisticated technology but brute force. Each carries several hundred kilograms of explosives, and even a single impact can cause widespread destruction. The resulting blast can damage structures hundreds of meters from the point of impact, making every successful hit a potential high-casualty event.
Over the course of the war, Iranian missiles killed 28 people, injured thousands and inflicted widespread damage on civilian infrastructure, even if some 90 percent of them were intercepted, according to Israeli military figures.
According to Hinz, initial launches came from western Iran, but as Israeli strikes on its missile bases and launch sites intensified, Iran began operating from areas deeper inside Iran, such as Shiraz, relying on both solid-fueled and liquid-fueled systems.
The liquid-fueled missiles — like the Emad — offer slightly longer ranges but are more logistically demanding, requiring longer setup times and larger launch crews.
Classifying Iran’s ballistic missiles is complicated by their many overlapping variants and the lack of reliable public information. The well-known Shahab-3 system, for instance, has evolved over time into more capable weapons.
“Shahab-3 was the mainstay of the Iranian missiles for years,” said Inbar, “but it was upgraded more than a decade ago into the Ghadr family.”
According to Inbar, Iran increased the range of its missiles in several ways: by boosting engine thrust, making the missiles lighter — such as replacing steel with aluminum in their structure — and refining warhead design. As a result, Ghadr extended Shahab’s original 1,300-kilometer (800-mile) range up to 1,800 kilometers (1,100 miles), allowing Iran to strike Israel from further east.
The Emad represents a further upgrade, equipped with terminal guidance systems in the reentry vehicle, making it far more accurate than earlier models.
But while Iran’s missile arsenal remains dangerous, its long-term sustainability is in serious doubt. Israeli intelligence assessments estimated at the beginning of the Israel-Iran conflict that the Islamic Regime had a stockpile of roughly 2,000 ballistic missiles, according to Fox News.
But since the fighting began, many of those have been launched or destroyed in Israeli airstrikes targeting launch sites and production infrastructure.
Before the conflict, US intelligence reportedly estimated Iran could produce around 50 ballistic missiles per month. That figure, however, may now be meaningless.
“I think the production rate is almost irrelevant to their rate of fire,” said Hinz.
He noted that Israeli strikes have likely degraded or destroyed many key production facilities, such as the Shahrud complex, which manufactures solid-propellant missile motors.
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With hundreds of missile launches, iran arguably hit one strategic target, the Haifa Oil refinery.
Contrast that with essentially 100% accuracy of Israeli JDAMs on regime strategic targets by Israel.
Crap iranian missiles without decent guidance are just the same population terror weapons like muslims always use. They have no strategic importance. Israel had what, 24 dead? Billions of Obama bucks bought less capability than a good pizza shop bombing by Arafat.
iran has been demonstrated to be effectively toothless. Israel PWND them.
This is why ceasefires are stupid
Um, Iran killed nearly 40 civilians, including 17 children. They aimed nearly all of their missiles at homes, not military targets.
The IDF has intercepted several drones launched from Iran towards the State of Israel over the past hour/s.
The US asked Israel not to respond.
The article says 28. Maybe it’s up to 40 with today’s casualties.
My point remains.
Islamic fascist Republic real Genocide threats since 1991
* Karmon, Ely. Iran’s Strategic Penetration of Latin America. Lexington Books, 2014, p. 15.
‘Mohsen Rabbani, who in 1991 stood before a group of Shi’ite Muslims and radical right-wing Argentine activists and stated openly, “Israel must disappear from the face of the Earth,” to universal applause.’
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‘The embassy’s cultural affairs officer, Imam Mohsen Rabbani, rose. “Israel,” he intoned in accented Spanish, “must disappear from the face of the Earth.” He and a dozen speakers who followed quoted Iran’s late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and called for unity in the fight against Zionism and the satanism of the West.
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The Statements of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
In the Iranian system, the highest ranking political authority is the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who succeeded Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989. Khamenei has made statements about Israel similar to Ahmadinejad. In a Friday sermon on December 15, 2000 (shown on Iranian TV), he declared: “Iran’s position, which was first expressed by the Imam [Khomeini] and stated several times by those responsible, is that the cancerous tumor called Israel must be uprooted from the region.”
A month later on January 15, 2001, at a meeting with organizers of the International Conference for Support of the Intifada, he stated: “The foundation of the Islamic regime is opposition to Israel and the perpetual subject of Iran is the elimination of Israel from the region.”
Iranian journalist Kasra Naji translated this sentence from the original Farsi as follows: “It is the mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to erase Israel from the map of the region.”
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Ahmadinejad: Region’s nations will use “smallest, shortest opportunity” to “uproot this regime.”
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A website affiliated with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared in February that Iran would be justified in killing all Israeli Jews - which Tehran’s long-range missiles could accomplish in nine minutes, boasted the site. Khamenei has called Israel a “cancerous tumor that must be removed” and declared that there is “justification to kill all the Jews and annihilate Israel, and Iran must take the helm.” Also in February, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad hosted Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Tehran, as billboards in the city declared that it is every Muslim’s duty to “wipe out” Israel. “If all the Jews gathered in Israel, it would save us the trouble of going after them world-wide,” Nasrallah has said. “It is an open war until the elimination of Israel and until the death of the last Jew on the earth.”
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Hossein Salami is deputy head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is under the command of the country’s Supreme Leader.
By JTA, July 8, 2016.
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Radio Farda, March 26, 2018.
‘Chief Commander of the Islamic Republic’s regular army has once again threatened Israel with total annihilation.
Referring to a comment by the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi said, “We will finish off Israel’s life within less than 25 years.”’
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Iranian dissident: “The more the mullahs spread hate speech against the Jewish State of Israel, the more Iranian people realize that Israel is our friend.”
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The picture shows Israel composed of nails and matches and a book of matches.
The picture shows Israel composed of nails and matches and a book of matches next to words in Hebrew and English declaring: “Just try and you will see.”
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Instagram.
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World”. Tass, June 16, 2025.
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In a fiery broadcast, Khamenei’s top adviser claims Iran killed 1,200 Israelis and accuses the U.S. of entering the war to prevent Israel’s collapse, dismissed by Israeli officials as obvious propaganda.
Gila Isaacson, Jfeed, Jun 23, 2025.
https://www.jfeed.com/news-israel/iran-claims-israel-casualties-us-intervention
Here we go again. Israel had Iran on the ropes and a ceasefire is created. Iran probably had 48 hours to go before Iran was totally defenseless. By not taking out the remaining missile launchers, Iran can strike again with dirty bombs on ballistic missiles.
I wouldn't give Iranian targeting capability that much credit.
That's not even close to being accurate but I doubt the Israeli regime will admit it.
As I understand the Iranian misses fired are called Shabab(sp) which are essentially a Scud. The Scud is basically a V2. So if you hit the city you’re on target.
Then what is the “accurate” percentage?
Finish them off for once and for all !
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