Why an Attack on Fordow Could Be a Strategic Gift to Iran

National Security Journal ^ | 6/19/2025 | Andrew Latham

[whyilovetexas111]

An Israeli strike on Iran’s hardened Fordow nuclear facility would not necessarily trigger an immediate, apocalyptic war but could instead be flipped to Iran’s strategic advantage. Rather than a suicidal retaliation, Tehran would likely respond with “retaliation in layers”: deniable proxy attacks, cyber-attacks, and maritime harassment.

[catnipman]

gosh, better not attack stuff in iran or they might fight back ... thanks for dropping these pearls of wisdom on us or we might never have figured that out ...

[Myrddin]

I think Trump is carefully weighing the use of the bunker buster from the B2. There is no certainty that it will do the job. If it fails, Iran has no reason to continue negotiations with Fordow as a bargaining chip. Wiping off the oil assets of Iran would certainly hurt them. China buys lots of Iranian oil. Russia would benefit by having new customers for oil that Iran can no longer supply. Lots of details to determine the best course of action.

[Vermont Lt]

Why is it all of the breathless doom postings are coming from our usual Russian supporters?

You need to quit with the negative waves. Think of something righteous. LOL

[SaxxonWoods]

There are 12 nuclear sites, not just Fordow.

[piasa]

Hilarious... the article warns that Iran could ...

...do exactly what they have been doing for years already.

[Seruzawa]

Ha! But it got clicks.

[Uncle Miltie]

“ Tehran would likely respond with “retaliation in layers”: deniable proxy attacks, cyber-attacks, and maritime harassment.”

Same as the last 20 years, in other words.

How’s that working out for the hamass, hezbolah, Houthi and IRGC commanders so far?

[SoConPubbie]

Who is the National Security Journal and what is their bias?

[webheart]

Ruholla Khomenei is dead. He can’t do anything and besides he is busy with his 72 infinite virginity regenerating virgins.

[MeanWestTexan]

Not if the Israelis keep going and blow up their oil producing facilities.

No money.

[webheart]

Sometimes it’s best to just do whatever and see what happens. Predicting the future is very difficult while dealing with past events is much easier. There is an IT corollary when you have a system that includes older equipment mixed with new equipment. Some end users might be affected by a change which you try as you might but you just can’t know what the effect is. The best course of action short of doing nothing is to go ahead and make the change and see who squawks.

[T. Rustin Noone]

I disagree.

The goal must be the elimination of the ability of whatever
government rules Iran from ever manufacturing a nuclear
weapon, with as little damage as possible to the Persian
people.

[If You Want It Fixed - Fix It]

Land troops, dig a deep well, plenty deep. Fill with mining explosive, detonate on the way out.

Do it right. A10’s will protect, and drones, and carriers. Go slow. Take selfies. Leave a flag.

[Salgak]

And Israel takes out every single powerplant and waterworks.

[xone]

NCJ needs to have another drink.

[xone]

They could do a lot of damage.

Or they could be slaughtered. Why would they have held back? Things change, keep the money and disappear.

[xone]

There is no certainty that it will do the job.

It would, we have plenty of them to pound the same hole. Better the Islamic a-holes quit, and then the US can peaceably go in and grab the nuke material.

[xone]

There are 12 nuclear sites, not just Fordow.

So? We have MOPs for everyone.

[MortMan]

They assume it’s not already happening.

[Myrddin]

It would, we have plenty of them to pound the same hole. Better the Islamic a-holes quit, and then the US can peaceably go in and grab the nuke material.

We have 20 of them.