Battleground states: Kamala has no path to 270

All polls, no cherry-picking, from Real Clear Politics | Dangus

[dangus]

In this map, red does NOT mean more Republican than pink, and pink does NOT mean more Republican than gray. Red represents a state that has not been considered a battleground state. Pink represents a state that had been considered a battleground, but polls show Harris uncompetitive, less so than Biden. Gray represents states without Trump vs Harris polling available. The point is that there is no path to 270 without a huge swing towards the Democrats, far larger than Trump's national lead.

There are a dearth of Trump-against-Harris polls in every state, but the key point is that Harris performs worse than Biden, so even if the poll is weighted poorly or by chance is more Democratic or Republican than it should be, we can still see how it just got HARDER, rather than easier for the Dems to get to 270 (actually, probably 269) electoral votes to win the election. That is, selecting Harris is not likely to get a BETTER result, but rather a desperate shake-up, like playing poker and giving back that king in the hopes of getting a third deuce.

There is one caveat: it is possible that corrupt pollsters were trying to keep Biden in the race or settle discord within the party by falsely claiming he would outperform Harris. That said, these are the battleground polls that included Trump-Harris matchups:

A Fox News poll of Georgia found Biden losing by three points, a very close race, but Harris losing by ten.

A Fox News 13 poll of Florida on July 18th shows Biden trailing by 6 points, but Harris trailing by 10.

An Insider Advantage poll of Arizona on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 5 points, but Harris trailing by 6.

An Insider Advantage poll of Pennsylvania on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 4 points, but Harris trailing by 7; on the other hand, A Democrat PAC poll by Public Policy Polling (fired by the DEMOCRATS!!! for skwing polls to make the Dems look better) shows Harris only down 2, whereas Biden is down 5.

An Insider Advantage poll of Nevada on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 7 points, but Harris trailing by 10.

A July 18 poll by Public Policy Polling shows Trump up in Michigan by 3 over Biden, and 5 over Harris. This one doesn't tell us much, but so as not to cherry-pick, a July 13 American Greatness poll of Wisconsin shows Biden down 2, but Harris only 1, so we keep Wisconsin gray.

[Prince of Space]

Big Mike also has a fat lazy ass. She doesn’t want to ever work again, preferring to vacation 24/7. She’s not a factor anymore, other than in our nightmares.

[dpetty121263]

Well I prey she stays out but if she gets in all bets are off.

[17th Miss Regt]

If Kamala does get in and survive all challengers, we need to put up billboards with her name and face and “Give me your poor and wretched, because we haven’t got borders anymore!”. Locate the billboards in areas most heavily damaged by illegals. New York, Chicago, Detroit, etc.

[Gena Bukin]

It's going to take a couple of weeks to see the real polling. All current polling with Harris in the race were hypothetical.

Now she's in the race and the clear frontrunner for the nomination.

My hunch is that Harris will be more popular than Biden in solidly blue enclaves and more popular with black voters in solidly red southern states. Unless she picks Shapiro, I don't see her moving the needle in any rust belt states.

Really, it's just too late in the game and the Democrat primary will be contentious. She's a profoundly unlikable candidate and they're not just going to hand her the nomination without an ugly fight.

[ducttape45]

I am going out on a limb saying this, but I don’t think Harris wins a single state, and the Deep State, Democrats and GOPe knows it.

[Carl Vehse]

Kamalamadingdong will get the nomination because the Demonicrats know she's an idiot, her personality grates on a significant number of women, and she will lose in 2024.

The Demonicrats will put real efforts into maintaining a Senate (or even achieving a House) majority to blunt anything Trump does as president.

[No name given]

I hope the rats lose those states and the remaining 47 as well.

[Liz]

Never seen a candidate grasping at the office, so greedy to be president, as she is.

[Bonemaker]

“A lot of American voters are fickle...”

A lot of American voters are stupid beyond wildest dreams.

[thirdgradeteacher]

I trust no polls. The cheat machine is big an powerful.

[Bonemaker]

She’s far too lazy.

[TexasFreeper2009]

Georgia and North Carolina were not really truly in play this election. And there is no way that Heels Up Harris does better than Biden would have.

[Bonemaker]

The snot is so obnoxious she wouldn’t even be able to keep a staff.

[cowboyusa]

Black men don’t like her.

[CFW]

“I fear this could turn out to be a GOP disaster. The Trump\Vance campaign had better be shifting gears fast as they SHOULD have been preplanning 3 weeks ago for this outcome, I fear they have not.”

---

The Trump campaign refused to commit to a Vance/Harris debate stating they had no idea if she would be the VP nominee. They have been preparing for this turmoil. They probably had a better idea of what was going on in the background than did the media.

[dangus]

Well, I’m trying to figure out where Harris must do stronger in, since the national polls says she’s pretty close; so I have to guess that New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Massachusetts, California, etc., are further out of reach for Trump. But that’s only a guess and possibly made based on bad data.

[CFW]

[mbrfl]

>>”...[P]ushing Kamala is about saving the 2028 race. A dismal showing for Kamala in 2024 and she’s dead meat for 2028. Meanwhile all the other democrats can stand back, avoid a debacle while preparing for 2028.”

If the Democrats were smart, they’d listen to you, because that’s about the best outcome they can hope for at this point. But the Democrats aren’t thinking in a rational, united way at at the moment, so it’s far from certain what the outcome will be.

[CA Conservative]

The fact that they dropped an ad against Harris within hours of the announcement shows that they HAVE been planning for this.

[CFW]