Battleground states: Kamala has no path to 270

All polls, no cherry-picking, from Real Clear Politics | Dangus

[dangus]

In this map, red does NOT mean more Republican than pink, and pink does NOT mean more Republican than gray. Red represents a state that has not been considered a battleground state. Pink represents a state that had been considered a battleground, but polls show Harris uncompetitive, less so than Biden. Gray represents states without Trump vs Harris polling available. The point is that there is no path to 270 without a huge swing towards the Democrats, far larger than Trump's national lead.

There are a dearth of Trump-against-Harris polls in every state, but the key point is that Harris performs worse than Biden, so even if the poll is weighted poorly or by chance is more Democratic or Republican than it should be, we can still see how it just got HARDER, rather than easier for the Dems to get to 270 (actually, probably 269) electoral votes to win the election. That is, selecting Harris is not likely to get a BETTER result, but rather a desperate shake-up, like playing poker and giving back that king in the hopes of getting a third deuce.

There is one caveat: it is possible that corrupt pollsters were trying to keep Biden in the race or settle discord within the party by falsely claiming he would outperform Harris. That said, these are the battleground polls that included Trump-Harris matchups:

A Fox News poll of Georgia found Biden losing by three points, a very close race, but Harris losing by ten.

A Fox News 13 poll of Florida on July 18th shows Biden trailing by 6 points, but Harris trailing by 10.

An Insider Advantage poll of Arizona on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 5 points, but Harris trailing by 6.

An Insider Advantage poll of Pennsylvania on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 4 points, but Harris trailing by 7; on the other hand, A Democrat PAC poll by Public Policy Polling (fired by the DEMOCRATS!!! for skwing polls to make the Dems look better) shows Harris only down 2, whereas Biden is down 5.

An Insider Advantage poll of Nevada on July 18 shows Biden trailing by 7 points, but Harris trailing by 10.

A July 18 poll by Public Policy Polling shows Trump up in Michigan by 3 over Biden, and 5 over Harris. This one doesn't tell us much, but so as not to cherry-pick, a July 13 American Greatness poll of Wisconsin shows Biden down 2, but Harris only 1, so we keep Wisconsin gray.

[j.havenfarm]

And New Mexico

[toddausauras]

She may get a boost if she becomes official. Overall, I’m disappointed that the dems will now control the narrative for weeks. But glad that Joe picked her in 2020. If he had picked an actual African American who was super likeable I’d be very worried right now.

[Bayard]

I would caution folks on seeing these numbers post Biden drop out as the real numbers.

I know Kamala is not liked, however, she certainly will have all the machine backing her and as much as the Democrats can pile on to change those numbers.

They’re already going with a Knute Rockney argument about Biden. We’ll see.

[LOC1]

What about Michelle Obama? I think former president Obama is trying to set her up to be the nominee.

[StAnDeliver]

It's all about saving a Senate wipeout, getting Schift over the line versus the artful Dodger, and maybe stopping Rogers in Michigan. The first is doable; the second unlikely.

[Windcatcher]

He picked her for insurance and it’s biting them in the butt.

[FLT-bird]

Trump’s going to carry North Carolina.

Easily.

Again.

[woodbutcher1963]

I wonder if she’ll be unburdened by what has been.

[RckyRaCoCo]

Just show ads of her cackling.

Then let Tulsi tear her apart (again).

Trump and VP stick to policy(inflation, border, debt/deficit, global conflicts, gov./media/deep state collusion/corruption...).

[Beowulf9]

She’s not an elected candidate by the people.

[Texas resident]

And there are 16 weeks for the media to show who Kamala really is. She won’t agree to hide in a basement for that long. Her overconfident/arrogant attitude won’t allow that.

[Red Badger]

Three months is forever in politics.........

[Beowulf9]

Not sure how you say it. The people did not elect Kamala in a Primary. This is bypassing the election system, the democracy.

She’s not been elected by the people to run.

[Red Badger]

Chicago can do that all by itself........

[HamiltonJay]

I have stated this from the start.

1). Replacing Biden is about down ballot, they know the White House is lost

2) to step in at the last minute and win would require a superstar, not only a superstar but a superstars superstar. If the Dems had that they would have run them in the first place.

3) any top tier candidate is not going to run and waste their chance at the White House by having to run through Biden’s excrement.

4) so if they replace Biden, it will be someone who knows they can’t win.. or who is just dumb enough to think they can. They leaves Harris or some party back bencher who will do it for the party provided they make it worth their while.

[devere]

Simply false, do the math.

[Attention Surplus Disorder]

“I wonder if she’ll be unburdened by what has been.”

LOL. I think she’ll be burdened by what has Biden’t.

[outofsalt]

It will be abortion uber alles.

[outofsalt]

" there is no world where Michigan is further right than North Nueva Carolina."

Sadly, this is the plan.

[Dilbert San Diego]

Yep, ive thought some democrats were ready to write off 2024, and regroup for 2028, when there will not be an incumbent running.

And for those Democrats who do not like Harris, they would be happy to see her go down to defeat in 2024, because such a defeat would probably end her political career.

Losing VP nominees often see their political careers damaged as well, so it could be any Democrats with presidential Ambitions for the future ,may well want to avoid being Kamala’sles running mate.