Posted on 03/26/2024 7:41:54 AM PDT by Kaiser8408a
Federal government spending is that hideous strength that keeps on chugging along, despite higher rates.
Home prices in America’s 20 largest cities rose for the 12th straight month in January (the latest data released by S&P Global Case-Shiller today), up 0.14% MoM (less than the 0.2% exp)
Source: Bloomberg
That pushed the YoY price up to +6.59% (in line with the +6.60% exp).
“Our National Composite rose by 6% in January, the fastest annual rate since 2022.” According to Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
“For the second consecutive month, all cities reported increases in annual prices, with San Diego surging 11.2%”
Given the smoothing and heavy lag in the Case-Shiller data, it’s hard to find a causal relationship between prices and mortgage rates, but with rates remaining above 7%, it seems hard to believe prices can continue their advance…
Source: Bloomberg
…and we just saw median new home prices tumble (though median existing home prices did increase).
How is Powell going to cut rates when home prices are rising at over 6% per year?
Meanwhile, after declining in February, analysts expected a small rebound in The Conference Board’s consumer confidence print in March, but instead it dropped further to 104.7 (vs 107.0 exp) from 106.7 as expectations plunged but current conditions improved…
Source: Bloomberg
However, for the 5th straight month, the conference board’s headline confidence print was revised downward…
And finally, expectations for stocks to increase from here are at their highest since Jan 2018…
Source: Bloomberg
…that did not end well for stocks.
Government spending and debt are the hideous strength that is driving inflation.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
It’s a good thing Biden has inflation under control or else we’d be in really big trouble.................
Supply and demand. Since it is unlikely demand will go down, then supply has to increase.
I doubt few still alive remember the years after the end of WWII when millions of men were discharged back into our society. Those millions of men were getting married and having kids but there was not enough houses for them.
This was before there all the regulation and laws we have today. Private developers stepped in and began mass building projects building modest affordable home.
see Levitttown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levittown
The only thing stopping that from happening today is government regulations that obstruct new construction.
Want to increase the supply, take another look at the regulations a developer has to follow before the first shovel of dirt is made. Want more affordable, look at the cost developers have to pay to the city and states.
We don’t have a housing problem, we have a government problem.
Has workplace compensation gained equal to inflation and cost of living?…
YTD is negative
A bunch of houses near me have been purchased by cash on day one for over asking.
No one lives in these houses. They aren’t being rented or renovated.
Some entity is putting cash into residential real estate.
OP link:
US New Home Sales Unexpectedly Dropped In Feb As Prices Tumbled
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-new-home-sales-unexpectedly-dropped-feb-prices-tumbled
No. And home prices rising faster than wages was a huge problem before the 2007/08 crash. That’s when lenders started doing crazy stuff just to make/close loans.
“A bunch of houses near me have been purchased”
What percentage of the local market do those sales represent?
10%, 50%, 80%, 2%? Without that knowledge, “a bunch of houses” is meaningless.
My Dad was discharged from the Navy in Oct 46. He had to get a room at the local YMCA because his mom, grandma and sister (who never owned a home, and had to move every 6-12 months) were sharing an apartment with the landlord's mother.
At the time, it was the best they could find.
CC debt is at an all time high.
It’s my understanding that repos are significantly high.
Same for late rents.
It’s been pointed out to me that we’re still okay because everywhere else is worse.
That doesn’t sound stable, nor do I seem to be “we”.
My personal finances are fine, I just don’t have a positive outlook.
I already know your condescending position, thanks.
“I’m fine, f everyone else.”
https://finmasters.com/foreclosure-rate/
If you scroll down this page you’ll see a historical to present foreclosure rate. It seems to bother you that I deal with actual statistics rather than unsubstantiated claims, but that’s the way I make investment decisions. The thing thing to remember is that there are 256 residential real estate submarkets in the USA and they can vary substantially.
“My personal finances are fine, I just don’t have a positive outlook.”
I’m there also. I’ll add...a little scared too.
The housing shortage was even included in a movie at the time.
Apartment for Peggy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apartment_for_Peggy
No, you gloat on your personal financial position on threads with negative implications.
Like I said, “thanks”. That’s code for F off.
That was the problem during Carter’s term in the mid 70s. Inflation was even worse than it is today, & wage stagnation was also present to create stagflation. Also back then, you had to have 20% down to obtain a mortgage loan that carried double-digit interest rates in the mid-teens & rising. It was impossible for most first time home buyers to accumulate the 20% because the price of the homes kept rising. It was the perfect cluster you know what for first time home buyers.
We still have a big housing shortage and are still recovering from the COVID money supply explosion. Yet, consumer confidence is rising. Also, we live in a more globally connected economy than ever, but the USA is still the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry basket.
I’ve had (and still have) people around me just like that.
Many, many years ago, I started a prayer thread at another site (different than one I mention) - anyways, right in the wake of the 2008 crash, trying to find a new job (which was unsuccessful as everything was crashing).
Anyways, some clown shows up - ran out of money on TUESDAY had no idea how they could make it until FRIDAY with no money. Yes, they were going to get paid a very difficult 3 days later. Oh my gosh - end of the world stuff.
Totally disrupted my prayer thread, but hey.
I almost said - you can’t borrow $20 until you get paid on Friday? What a maroon.
I mean, hey if they had started their own prayer thread, LOL.
It’s amazing how when really hard times hit - how much one will find out about those around them.
The only thing good back then...if you had a money market account, you made good money on your savings. Like having a part time job. (I was overseas until ‘75.)
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