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Running On Empty? US Bank Deposit Outflows Continue To Shrink As Regional ‘Stress’ Accelerates (Mortgage Rates UP 151% Under Biden)
Confounded Interest ^ | 11/09/2023 | Anthony B. Sanders

Posted on 12/09/2023 7:57:35 AM PST by Kaiser8408a

The song “Running on Empty” by Jackson Browne comes to mind when analyzing the state of American banking, especially regional banks.

Yesterday we found out that inflows to money-market funds continue to be huge ($290BN in six weeks), and more importantly, regional banks’ usage of The Fed’s BTFP bailout facility surged to a new record high (even as regional banks surged…

Source: Bloomberg

And so, with that shitshow in mind, we await the glorious manipulation of The Fed’s bank deposits data to reinforce that equity confidence.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, banks saw a $53.7BN deposit outflow…

Source: Bloomberg

However, on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, deposits rose by $27BN…

Source: Bloomberg

And even with the outflows (SA), the divergence between soaring money-market funds and bank deposits continues to widen…

Source: Bloomberg

Excluding foreign bank deposits, domestic banks saw the third week of the last four of deposit outflows (-$40.6BN SA) with Large banks -$35BN (SA) and Small banks losing $5.7BN (SA). On an NSA basis, domestic banks saw inflows of $36.5BN last week with Large banks adding $32BN and Small banks adding $4BN…

Source: Bloomberg

That adds up to $88BN (SA) of deposit outflows in the last four weeks (bank to its lowest total since May…

Source: Bloomberg Mortgage rates, despite coming down recently, are still up 151% under Biden. And home prices are up 33.2%. So much for affordable housing for those renting.

So, “Running on Empty” applies to middle class and their ability to afford housing.

(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Food; Government; Politics
KEYWORDS: banking; deposits; economy; housing; mortgage
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1 posted on 12/09/2023 7:57:35 AM PST by Kaiser8408a
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To: Kaiser8408a

“The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) was created to support American businesses and households by making additional funding available to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors. The BTFP offers loans of up to one year in length to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions pledging any collateral eligible for purchase by the Federal Reserve Banks in open market operations (see 12 CFR 201.108(b))”


2 posted on 12/09/2023 7:59:16 AM PST by Paladin2
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To: Kaiser8408a

‘Mortgage rates up 151% under Biden’.

Just saw a headline on the Yahoo homepage that said the economy was back to pre-pandemic levels.

I guess we’re back to .2% inflation, $2 gas and 3% mortgage rates. Hooray for Dear Leader Joe.


3 posted on 12/09/2023 8:02:00 AM PST by Roadrunner383 (m)
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To: Kaiser8408a

BANK DEPOSIT OUTFLOWS.


Can a headline make it any more confusing?


4 posted on 12/09/2023 8:03:41 AM PST by PeterPrinciple (Thinking Caps are no longer being issued but there must be a warehouse full of them somewhere.)
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To: PeterPrinciple

What is happening is that most regional banks do not have high yield savings accounts.

That means that if you put your money in a regional bank low yield savings account you will earn annual interest of under one tenth of one percent.

Some folks have moved money that used to be there to banks with high yield savings accounts that pay in the 4 to 5% range.

Some folks have moved it out of banks altogether into market market funds that pay in the 5% range.

It is amazing to me that the low interest paying regional banks have survived this long. They are doing it because they are not required to “mark to market” their real estate loans so their books look ok.

In fact they are broke.


5 posted on 12/09/2023 8:13:33 AM PST by cgbg ("Creative minds have always been known to survive any kind of bad training." Anna Freud.)
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To: Kaiser8408a
...we found out that inflows to money-market funds continue to be huge...

My regional bank is giving me 5.5% for 9 months for a money-market. There is very little risk with a MM, why would anyone not take advantage of this?

Sure, you can put money in the stock market, but over the past 2+ years that has pretty much gone sideways with fairly big swings in between. Beyond a small amount, no thanks.

6 posted on 12/09/2023 8:14:16 AM PST by Obadiah
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To: Kaiser8408a

> the divergence between soaring money-market funds and bank deposits continues to widen… <

Well, yeah. A decent money-market fund is paying 5% or more. The brick-and-mortar banks around me are all paying around 0.2%.

I’ve read elsewhere that the banks don’t need extra deposits at this time. So they have no need to raise their rates to attract new money. That does make some sense. But who really knows what the man behind the curtain is really up to?


7 posted on 12/09/2023 8:24:32 AM PST by Leaning Right (The steal is real.)
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To: cgbg

I understand that. IT is the headline to intentional confuse.


8 posted on 12/09/2023 8:25:46 AM PST by PeterPrinciple (Thinking Caps are no longer being issued but there must be a warehouse full of them somewhere.)
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To: PeterPrinciple

Ins and outs. The basic rule of all business.


9 posted on 12/09/2023 8:28:10 AM PST by ProtectOurFreedom (“Occupy your mind with good thoughts or your enemy will fill them with bad ones.” ~ Thomas More)
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To: cgbg

My bank doesn’t have money market accounts... what’s your take on CD’s?


10 posted on 12/09/2023 8:32:05 AM PST by GOPJ
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To: Leaning Right

Here is an article on why many brick and mortar banks are not raising their interest rates paid to consumers:

https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/why-are-rates-low-on-my-savings-account/

My read on this is that most folks using these banks do not have a lot of savings so don’t care what the interest rate is.

In addition it has only been in the last couple of years that high yield savings accounts and money market accounts started paying significantly higher interest.

People are creatures of habit and are slow to change.

That is why this is a “slow bleed” that will just get worse and worse for the regional banks.


11 posted on 12/09/2023 8:33:28 AM PST by cgbg ("Creative minds have always been known to survive any kind of bad training." Anna Freud.)
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To: GOPJ

I have nothing against CDs—if they work for you go for it.


12 posted on 12/09/2023 8:34:11 AM PST by cgbg ("Creative minds have always been known to survive any kind of bad training." Anna Freud.)
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To: cgbg

One of the grandkids is keeping $30,000 in her checking account. Earning 0%. (And yeah, she’s maxed out on her company (IRA or 401K - I forget which one) contributions.


13 posted on 12/09/2023 8:43:19 AM PST by GOPJ
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To: GOPJ

An online high yield savings account is a great place to park five figures on a temporary basis—easy to get in and out—Marcus and Ally are two examples.

Another option is a Vanguard money market fund—insanely low fees and the “sweep fund” (where money goes if you do nothing) is currently paying 5% interest with only $3,000 required to open an account.

CDs are another good option.


14 posted on 12/09/2023 8:53:34 AM PST by cgbg ("Creative minds have always been known to survive any kind of bad training." Anna Freud.)
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To: Kaiser8408a
My primary bank had an offer for a high yield savings account at 4.65%. The problem is that you can't get it if you live in a state with one of their branches. If you live there you get a fraction of a percent. Having those bricks and mortar nearby sure is expensive.

I keep enough to pay my bills plus one paycheck worth. Anything more goes to a high yield savings account or my stock brokerage.

15 posted on 12/09/2023 9:00:21 AM PST by KarlInOhio (Democrats' version of MAGA: Making America the Gulag Archipelago. Now with "Formal Deprogramming")
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To: cgbg
Another option is a Vanguard money market fund—insanely low fees and the “sweep fund” (where money goes if you do nothing) is currently paying 5% interest with only $3,000 required to open an account.

And that's a non-retirement account? Sounds good - I'll pass that one along. Thanks.

16 posted on 12/09/2023 9:01:11 AM PST by GOPJ
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To: Kaiser8408a
The Great Taking - by David Rogers Webb.

https://expose-news.com/2023/10/06/global-elite-devise-plan-to-take-everything-we-own/

In June 2023, hedge fund manager David Rogers Webb published a book titled ‘The Great Taking’.

The book, one commentator said, describes a legal framework for the seizure of trillions of dollars of assets from public and private institutions and people. It includes primary sources and a reasonable narrative explaining how a powerful class can subvert society for their own ends.

Webb wrote that his book is about the taking of collateral – all of it.  In other words, we will own nothing.


excerpt:

The end game of the current globally synchronous debt accumulation super cycle. This scheme is being executed by long-planned, intelligent design, the audacity and scope of which is difficult for the mind to encompass.  Included are all financial assets and bank deposits, all stocks and bonds; and hence, all underlying property of all public corporations, including all inventories, plant and equipment; land, mineral deposits, inventions and intellectual property. Privately owned personal and real property financed with any amount of debt will likewise be taken, as will the assets of privately owned businesses which have been financed with debt. If even partially successful, this will be the greatest conquest and subjugation in world history.

Private, closely held control of ALL central banks, and hence of all money creation, has allowed a very few people to control all political parties and governments; the intelligence agencies and their myriad front organisations; the armed forces and the police; the major corporations and, of course, the media. These very few people are the prime movers. Their plans are executed over decades. Their control is opaque. To be clear, it is these very few people, who are hidden from you, who are behind this scheme to confiscate all assets, who are waging a hybrid war against humanity.


Video documentary, The Great Taking (a little over 1 hr 10 mins):

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dk3AVceraTI&ab_channel=TheGreatTaking

17 posted on 12/09/2023 9:33:12 AM PST by yelostar (Spook codes 33 and 13. See them often in headlines and news stories. )
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To: cgbg; PeterPrinciple

I can go to Charles Schwab fixed income page and get a $1,000 TCD paying over 5%.


18 posted on 12/09/2023 1:16:17 PM PST by Retain Mike ( Sat Cong)
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To: GOPJ

Anyone can open a Vanguard account for any reason—as I described.


19 posted on 12/09/2023 1:39:40 PM PST by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Obey or get canceled.)
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To: Retain Mike

Many folks sing the praises of Schwab.

My main issue with them is that they do not pay interest on their “sweep” account—but as long as you stay fully invested in something you are fine.


20 posted on 12/09/2023 1:41:16 PM PST by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Obey or get canceled.)
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