Posted on 07/24/2023 10:40:18 AM PDT by oblomov
In this installment I will use the ideas discussed in previous posts to make projections. A projection is different from a forecast (and, certainly, from a prophecy) in that it is not an attempt to predict what will happen. Rather, it is a description of what would happen given certain hypotheses and assumptions. Typically, we want to make several projections, using different assumptions. This gives us some idea of how different assumptions result in different possible future trajectories.
A good rule of thumb is that we should start with the simplest possible model, but one that captures the most important feature of the dynamical process. Selecting which features to focus on, and which to ignore (at least, in the first, simplest version of the model), is as much art as science. I will follow my intuition, but others, of course, can disagree with me. In which case, they should propose an explicit alternative and show how that affects the projection.
These projections assume that this conflict in Ukraine will continue (and end) as a war of attrition. If the nature of war changes, all bets are, of course, off. I revisit this point briefly at the end, and plan to address it in more detail in a future post.
In a war of attrition there are two key processes that determine the eventual outcome. First, each army shrinks as a result of soldiers getting killed, seriously wounded, or captured by the enemy. Second, these losses are replenished by drawing on a finite pool of recruits. Whichever side runs out of recruits first is the one that loses the war.
(Excerpt) Read more at peterturchin.com ...
https://peterturchin.com/what-osipov-and-lanchester-tell-us-about-the-war-in-ukraine/
https://peterturchin.com/war-in-ukraine-ii-the-model/
https://peterturchin.com/war-in-ukraine-iii-an-interim-assessment/
Personal note: I've used Lanchester models successfully in several different disciplines.
By my calculations, the war will end December March 18, 2024.
Turchin offers a model and shows the data being used as input to the model. These may be disputed, but it’s a theoretical framework and documented assumptions.
What do you offer?
“In a war of attrition there are two key processes that determine the eventual outcome. First, each army shrinks as a result of soldiers getting killed, seriously wounded, or captured by the enemy”
I got that far. How is this a war of attrition when Russia started with 90,000 highly trained soldiers in the field but now has 750,000?
Russia has still lost soldiers. But the 80,000 figure was not the total number of soldiers Russia had available to them. It was just a subset of the soldiers they had at their disposal. 750,000 is most likely still not the total number of soldiers Russia has to pull from.
Wait. All this math and graphs just to demonstrate that Russia would win a war of attrition against Ukraine? Just looking at a map would tell you that.
Since Russia has the nuclear hole card it will only lose if it chooses.
I guess the 80,000 should have been 90,000. Typo.
I guess the 80,000 should have been 90,000. Typo.
Some people, such as the FR defenders of Biden’s War, need help understanding this. Not that math will convince them.
“How is this a war of attrition when Russia started with 90,000 highly trained soldiers in the field but now has 750,000?”
Astute. This is not a war of attrition, it is a war of property and worth. Clearly Russia started with the munitions and manpower to level anything of worth in the Ukraine from the beginning in 2014. I would hope by this time the people throughout the world are beginning to understand that Putin does need a lot of what is there but wants the worth within it. And a lot of it hasn’t been identified and displayed like reactors, CIA prisons, bio/med labs and other military related property that Russia may have owned when the Ukraine split with them in 1991 and claimed to have return to them.
To many toys not to want back. And a lot more than the public knows about and Russia doesn’t want destroyed, along with the support people in those facilities to continue their operations. Leveling those makes the property worthless and a waste of time and funds to do so. Putin’s trying to get it done as cheap as possible without offering the Ukraine, and other pieces, to get support from other nations for their civil war. And now he’s in too deep to back off. And we were stupid enough to get into it just like Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Africa, Serbia, Lybia, and a number of other “police actions” that we should have stayed out of.
wy69
They want the ethnic Russians protected. They want access to the sea and they want defendable positions and a buffer to help protect Russia from the greatest offensive military behemoth the world has ever seen, which is sitting on their border. Anything they find within those limited territorial objectives, they’ll take.
Turchin’s model boils down to Russia has more people therefore it can sustain astronomical losses and will win a war of attrition which explains perfectly Russia’s victories in WWI, the Russo Japanese War and Afghanistan…oh wait never mind or as my Mom would say, a simple mind is a blessing.
Russia will run out of ammo, artillery tubes, and the courage in the bottom of a vodka bottle before Ukraine runs out of bombs, planes, tanks, or manpower not to mention the political will to carry on. There has already been at least one attempted coup.
Ukraine has already had one unsuccessful and one successful coup in the past 20 years, and the US sponsored both of them.
The Ukraine war is a war between two factions of the left, and I detest both factions. I hope they both attrit one another to oblivion.
To me this is much more of a terror war against Ukrainian civilian population to get them to capitulate to Moscow domination and control.
The problem is that there is too much collective knowledge and history on that topic widely known by the Ukrainian people. The Holodomor, or the starvation death and genocide caused by Moscow is still fresh in the memories of stories passed along to current grandparents by their parents and grandparents. The various Stalin purges and mass killings of Ukrainian relatives are still family memories. The deportations under orders from Moscow of Ukrainian families to work (death) camps in Siberia and other Soviet republics are also known by many of the families.
The terror bombings, artillery attacks and rocket attacks of civilian areas have given the historic crimes against Ukrainians a fresh emphasis and strengthen their resolve.
From my perspective, this is not a traditional war of attrition, this is a blood-feud or death match. The only way it will end is with a North/South Korea DMZ at least 20 miles wide comprised of former Russian and Ukrainian territory, possibly with UN international Peace Keepers patrolling the DMZ for violations by both sides. Like the war in Korea, I don't think this war will ever “end.”
My other prediction is that either Crimea is given back to Ukraine or it will become a wasteland with no access to water, electricity, or supplies.
“...they want defendable positions and a buffer to help protect Russia from the greatest offensive military behemoth the world has ever seen, which is sitting on their border.”
They don’t need defendable positions against the US. There will be no combat warfare between the US and the Russians. Russia, alongside Canada and the United States, is one of only three countries with a coast along three oceans (however connection to the Atlantic Ocean is extremely remote, while United States and Canada both have large coast lines on three oceans), due to which it has links with over thirteen marginal seas. If they have to go up against the US, it won’t be a ground and pound like in WW II. And if it came to nuclear, Russia is better armed and equipped to destroy the world than the US is. They want the worth, not the strategic location. That’s why they haven’t turned the landscape into potholes and totally destroyed cities.
wy69
You haven’t been paying attention to the traitors and dip$hits in DC running this CF. They are capable of escalating this very easily to the point of bumbling us into a five day conventional world war followed immediately by the nuclear threshold crossing.
I was one of those that was involved with the military through NAF and DOD from 1995 till 2013 when I was medically retired. Prior to that I was army in the late 60’s and air force from 1975 till 1995 when I healed enough to get back in.
The possibility of an armed combat conflict with Russia is not on the table with Biden or Putin. Neither wishes to stare down the other one. This is why Russia has continued trade with the US and we have, under the table many times, supplied the Ukraine with munitions, training, supplies and covert people counts in the areas.
If an actual firefight was going to commence it would have happened already as our assisting the Ukraine is public knowledge and Biden is still blistering from the Afghanistan idiocy. Biden doesn’t want to do that again and Putin just wants his country’s toys back to include some we have in there. It won’t happen unless someone insane gets into either country’s cookie jar. This was the fear with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un while Russia supplied them with nuclear technology and Iran with the same plus munitions while China supplied Iran with bio/chem weapons. The fat’s in the fire in many places. But no one wants an end game. Too much to lose and too much money.
wy69
Don’t much care about your military experience. The Pentagon is full of idiots who are responsible for helping to get us into this CF. If you read what the Russians have said consistently since 1991 you find they promise they will fight WWIII to keep NATO off of their border with Ukraine. The Russians could not have been clearer about what they were about to do prior to 2/22. As anyone can see, the idiots in DC have no clue. Honestly, I’m surprised their reckless escalations to date haven’t started the Russian/NATO war. You’re whistling past the graveyard if you don’t believe this can go terribly off the rails at any minute. The Uke missile striking Poland last year could very well have accidentally started it. Zelensky is capable of anything. His promised nuke plant false flag attack would have enough disinfo potential to give DC their Gulf of Tonkin cover to move NATO troops into Ukraine. Of course, that’s WWIII.
“Don’t much care about your military experience.”
I gave you that so you know I’m not some nut job out here listening to the media and the chicken little mud they throw. Contrary to the belief the media wishes to display to sell their papers, the Russians are just as afraid of a launch as everyone else. They are, after all, just people. And the Wagner revolt is an example of it.
Under a paper put out by the DOD:
The Defense Department announced an additional security assistance package of up to $500 million aimed at providing key capabilities to support Ukraine’s counteroffensive operations and defend against Russia’s war of aggression.
The DOD follows orders. These orders are coming from congress and Biden, basically Biden.
“Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine”
The actions Biden is misusing is based upon a treaty signed with the Ukraine in 1999 under the Clinton administration and was run through congress. None the less, it is not a military decision, it is Biden’s and congress. And congress has allowed it to continue past the time alloted for the action by a POTUS.
“The Uke missile striking Poland last year could very well have accidentally started it.”
If you check, it was from the S-300 system. It is a SAM and was fired to try to down a Russian missile coming at them and whatever goes up...
“His promised nuke plant false flag attack...”
In an article from the LA Times in July of this year it states:
“Ukraine and Russia accused each other Wednesday of planning to attack one of the world’s largest nuclear power plants, which is located in southeastern Ukraine and occupied by Russian troops, but neither side provided evidence to support its claims of an imminent threat.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has officials stationed at the Russian-held plant, which is still run by its Ukrainian staff. IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi said his agency’s most recent inspection of the plant found no mining activities, “but we remain extremely alert.”
There has been no massive build up of NATO supporting forces for over 9 years since the first of the combat started in the Ukraine. Don’t buy the hype. It sells newspapers and promotes the Biden administration vote chasing machine.
My problem is the continued support for a delayed civil war. Putin is no moron. I’d be more worried about NKorea than Russia. Jong’s a real loose cannon. We’ve done more than we should have. It’s time to pull back and let the Ukraine stand on its own as that is what they committed to in 1991. So Zelensky needs to put up or... He’s already over withdrawn from anything he can pay back. So Biden and congress are throwing bad money to worse. And it’s Putin’s decision on how it will continue or end. They have the conventional capacity to level large chunks of the Ukraine and the Ukraine can’t stop it. But like I said in this thread, among others, it is not a matter of war. It is a matter of money and toys. And the Biden administration and congress are stroking the flames to keep the campfire warm for the most wrong reasons...their power and money.
wy69
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