https://peterturchin.com/what-osipov-and-lanchester-tell-us-about-the-war-in-ukraine/
https://peterturchin.com/war-in-ukraine-ii-the-model/
https://peterturchin.com/war-in-ukraine-iii-an-interim-assessment/
Personal note: I've used Lanchester models successfully in several different disciplines.
By my calculations, the war will end December March 18, 2024.
“In a war of attrition there are two key processes that determine the eventual outcome. First, each army shrinks as a result of soldiers getting killed, seriously wounded, or captured by the enemy”
I got that far. How is this a war of attrition when Russia started with 90,000 highly trained soldiers in the field but now has 750,000?
Wait. All this math and graphs just to demonstrate that Russia would win a war of attrition against Ukraine? Just looking at a map would tell you that.
Since Russia has the nuclear hole card it will only lose if it chooses.
To me this is much more of a terror war against Ukrainian civilian population to get them to capitulate to Moscow domination and control.
The problem is that there is too much collective knowledge and history on that topic widely known by the Ukrainian people. The Holodomor, or the starvation death and genocide caused by Moscow is still fresh in the memories of stories passed along to current grandparents by their parents and grandparents. The various Stalin purges and mass killings of Ukrainian relatives are still family memories. The deportations under orders from Moscow of Ukrainian families to work (death) camps in Siberia and other Soviet republics are also known by many of the families.
The terror bombings, artillery attacks and rocket attacks of civilian areas have given the historic crimes against Ukrainians a fresh emphasis and strengthen their resolve.
From my perspective, this is not a traditional war of attrition, this is a blood-feud or death match. The only way it will end is with a North/South Korea DMZ at least 20 miles wide comprised of former Russian and Ukrainian territory, possibly with UN international Peace Keepers patrolling the DMZ for violations by both sides. Like the war in Korea, I don't think this war will ever “end.”
My other prediction is that either Crimea is given back to Ukraine or it will become a wasteland with no access to water, electricity, or supplies.