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RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 1, 2023 [STALLED!]
Institute for the Study of War ^ | April 1, 2023 | Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan

Posted on 04/02/2023 7:14:53 AM PDT by Timber Rattler

Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources observed on April 1 that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing the Donetsk and Luhansk oblast administrative borders by March 31. Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov had announced on December 22 that Russian forces were focusing most of their efforts on seizing Donetsk Oblast, and Russian forces launched their winter offensive operation in early February along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna-Lyman line and on select frontlines in western Donetsk Oblast. The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) observed that Gerasimov has failed to extend Russian control over Donbas during his appointment as the theater commander in Ukraine and has achieved only marginal gains by expending mobilized personnel. Ukrainian intelligence representative Andriy Yusov stated that Gerasimov missed the Kremlin’s deadline to capture Donbas by March 31.

(snip)

Khodakovsky noted that failures during the offensive cause manpower losses and spark negative sentiments among the personnel, and argued that unnamed actors may be attempting to continue the offensive for personal reasons rather than taking a rational approach to the issue. Khodakovsky’s comment likely implies that Gerasimov is pursuing personal interest in sustaining the offensive in order to retain favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Khodakovsky’s recent appointment on March 30 as regional Rosgvardia deputy head and the return of Surovikin (at least by proxy) to the information space may indicate that Gerasimov’s unsuccessful theater-wide offensive may already be costing him favor with Putin.

(Excerpt) Read more at understandingwar.org ...


TOPICS: Government; Military/Veterans; Politics
KEYWORDS: 000asplanned; 00putingeniuslol; aprilfools; frederickwkagan; globalistpropaganda; instituteforwargrift; isw; katerynastepanenko; nato; neoconcentral; nicolewolkov; putin; putinfansragebelow; rileybailey; russia; snek; snekbot; thesnekbot; ukraine; victorianuland; victorianulandhomies; victorianulandscrowd; war; woodytheneocon; woodythezeeper; yourenemy; zelensky
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To: EC Washington
You all know that Timber rattler - Marcusmaximus - URevaol.com - etc. , are all the same person...


21 posted on 04/02/2023 10:10:30 AM PDT by Timber Rattler ("To hold a pen is to be at war." --Voltaire)
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To: FlyingEagle
Time for peace.

Putin can stop the attacks and pull his troops out of Ukraine any time...

22 posted on 04/02/2023 10:11:21 AM PDT by Timber Rattler ("To hold a pen is to be at war." --Voltaire)
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To: CodeToad
Supporting child molesters and democrap money laundering is all you liberals do.

I'm not the one pimping Scott Ritter and Vlad Putin around here...

23 posted on 04/02/2023 10:12:30 AM PDT by Timber Rattler ("To hold a pen is to be at war." --Voltaire)
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To: Timber Rattler

Pro-Russian military blogger killed in St. Petersburg cafe explosion: reports

RUSSIA Published April 2, 2023 2:03pm EDT

Tatarsky was a prominent supporter of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine
By Anders Hagstrom | Fox News

https://www.foxnews.com/world/pro-russian-military-blogger-killed-explosion-st-petersburg-reports


24 posted on 04/02/2023 12:00:21 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (Trump!: “They’re not after me! They’re after you! I’m just in the way!”)
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To: Timber Rattler

you trolls will post anything..LOL
.
Wagner advances in the Central Bakhmut. Avdiivka operation. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.04.02
.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJ4X2hRWJ9s


25 posted on 04/02/2023 12:00:58 PM PDT by CarolinaReaganFan
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To: Timber Rattler

Then you will have nothing to post about, if people are not slaughtering each other, which you love so much.


26 posted on 04/02/2023 1:56:35 PM PDT by FlyingEagle
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To: Timber Rattler
Wagner Advance In Central Bakhmut:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2vlpEiidiY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ze9PndaalAU

Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for April 3, 2023:

-Russian forces continue encirclement of Bakhmut and Avdeevka;

- Western media continues to measure Russia's strategy of attrition by territorial gains; - Over the past month there has been an uptick in Russian precision airstrikes along the line of contact;

- Reports indicate that one of the munitions used is the GLONASS-guided UPAB-1500B glide bomb with a range of 40-50km;

- The UPAB-1500B is released out of range of most of Ukraine's mobile force protection air defense systems, most of Ukraine's S-300s are either destroyed or deployed far behind the line of contact opening an opportunity for the glide bomb's use;

- Further degradation of Ukraine's air defenses will lead to Russian military aviation becoming a more decisive factor;

27 posted on 04/02/2023 2:07:00 PM PDT by Kazan
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To: Timber Rattler

Problem is, Russia never planned a winter offensive. That came from people other than Russians.


28 posted on 04/02/2023 2:07:02 PM PDT by dforest (All of America has derailed.)
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To: Kazan

wwII German army saying

all the roads in russia

are up hill


29 posted on 04/02/2023 2:20:54 PM PDT by Firehath
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To: wildcard_redneck

“Ukes on FR should STFU.”

Maybe you should.


30 posted on 04/02/2023 4:07:29 PM PDT by vladimir998 ( Apparently I'm still living in your head rent free. At least now it isn't empty.)
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To: vladimir998

Sure Vlad. A minimum of 25% and perhaps up to 40% of the entire population of the Ukraine has voted with their damned feet and left that crooked craphole of a country.


31 posted on 04/02/2023 4:17:38 PM PDT by wildcard_redneck (Biden will mess up the Ukraine worse than Afghanistan.)
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To: wildcard_redneck

Yes, many have left - it was a country under attack.

And the Russian offensive is still stalled. Deal with it.


32 posted on 04/02/2023 4:26:37 PM PDT by vladimir998 ( Apparently I'm still living in your head rent free. At least now it isn't empty.)
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To: Timber Rattler

Ok - I didn’t mean Person like Human Beings - they are all the same AI Bot


33 posted on 04/02/2023 4:43:20 PM PDT by EC Washington
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