Posted on 03/08/2023 4:21:01 AM PST by Kaiser8408a
Slippin’ into darkness! The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve, that is.
At the same time that the 10Y-2Y yield curve inverts to -108 basis points, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate has risen to 7.11%.
Now that The Federal Reserve is no longer low riding interest rates, I expect to see a cooling of the US economy.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
“I no longer believe any economic numbers produced out of DC.”
Nor the ‘American’ media.
I believe that numbers such as the unemployment rate and consumer price index are accurate when they are reported, they are very misleading IMO.
If you pay attention to the numbers over time 1-3 months after they are reported, we always get revisions due to “seasonal adjustments”, which typically more closely reflect what we all know is happening.
Since the general public only pays attention to the numbers when they are reported, typically they pay no attention to the revised numbers or they never get reported except in obscure places.
Friday this week we will get the monthly unemployment numbers, who knows what they will show, I suspect they will show a healthy economy of job creation, I also suspect any revisions that come out will show something different.
Awesome.
Hopefully legions will run out of stocks... and Wall St. becomes a homeless encampment.
I no longer believe anything coming out of DC.
Yeah, the federal government has been manipulating numbers for 3 years now and pushing hedge funds and industry investors to boost the Dow. It can’t go on forever.
You're just joshin'because the CPI formula is a JOKE, and everyone knows it.
It doesn't even properly account for food, fuel and housing.
The numbers out of DC are cooked. Take CPI for example. It is supposed to measure price changes, which it did 60 years ago. However, the methodology has been changed numerous times and the history has not be restated. Comparing now vs then is meaningless. One of the changes is called substitution. Substitution is when Prime Beef is “deemed” too expensive and consumers shift to Choice, then Select, then Chicken, then Turkey. This is a real example. By substituting in the CPI, they can claim prices are not increasing as fast as they are. They do not mention that they assume a reduction in the standard of living of most people has occurred due to those high prices that their revised methodology claims never happened. The CPI no longer measures price changes when substitution takes place.
This economy has a problem. The problem is intentional government policy has reduced supply of energy and raised the price. Supply and demand of energy is therefore broken and not subject to market forces. Inflation cannot be reduced to 2% until one of two things happens. One, the government policy is changed. Two, the economy is reduced in size to match the energy the government is willing to make available.
The MBS mortgage rate is 6.79%, not 7.11%. Not a huge difference unless you are trying to pay off a $500,000 mortgage.
Well with the mortgage rate over 7%, old average Joe won’t buy a new or different house. Home Market dead — Good job, Joe.
Car loans will be way up there as well even at these very inflated prices — New car market dead — Good job, Joe.
Used cars were real pricey but now the oldeest wil stay pricey while the newer models can’t be cheaply financed — Caa-Ching — Good job, Joe.
Consumer goods are through the roof in inflated prices, that market will stall — Good job, Joe.
Gas prices and auto concerns will hurt an already impacted travel and vacation market — Good job, Joe.
Air travel is already screwed- - Good job, Joe.
With raw materials way up and business down then the commercial and light industrial construction market should be heading to the crapper— Good job, Joe.
Taxes are going through the roof, warfare running as Lawfare is out of control, the Gulags are on their way — Good job, Joe.
BidenDepression 2023
World War III before the 2024 election?
I thought before midterms but now it really seems possible.
It’s still not a recession until there’s a Republican in the White House to blame it on.
I didn't know FR had a communist community.
🔝🔝🔝
It’s smart for FedGov to avoid including food and fuel from their core CPI numbers. Nobody uses those things, after all.
“I believe that numbers such as the unemployment rate and consumer price index are accurate when they are reported”
BS.
Every month, the BLS reported Obama’s unemployment numbers down then quietly revised them up later.
With Trump they reported the unemployment numbers high then quietly revised them down later.
Remember Obama’s operating principle. Reward your friends and punish your enemies. We are the enemy of the uniparty.
Misleading the citizenry is the ONLY reason the government publicizes ANY statistics!
Most of us don’t pay any attention to the “numbers”. What counts is what we are paying for goods and services.
I bought 4 tomato plants and 3 bags of soil last weekend.
$60. I remember when I could buy two or three times that material for that same $60.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.