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About That Surprisingly Strong Jobs Report: 3.30% Growth In Jobs Added On YoY Basis As Fed Slow Walks Shrinking Balance Sheet (Negative REAL Hourly Earnings Growth Not Something To Brag About)
Confounded Interest ^ | 02/04/2023 | Anthony B. Sanders

Posted on 02/04/2023 7:38:44 AM PST by Kaiser8408a

The Hill has an interesting story: 5 takeaways on a surprisingly strong jobs report.

“The U.S. economy added 517,000 jobs in January, more than doubling Wall Street expectations and turning up its nose at prognosticators of an imminent recession. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.4 percent, the lowest level since 1969. Analysts were expecting it to move in the opposite direction, ticking up to 3.6 percent.”

Yes, I was expecting U-3 unemployment to increase to 3.6% as well. What happened? Seasonal adjustments (BLS doens’t provide non-seasonally adjusted data). But the shocking headline (mostly due to seasonal adjustements) was not as surprising if we consider that jobs added in January grew at 3.309% year-over-year. Well, THAT isn’t all that surprising. Particularly since The Fed is slow walking its shrinking of The Fed balance sheet.

Bear in mind that employment is a LAGGING indicator. For example, the unemployment rate was 4.7% in November 2007 just prior to the beginning of the 2008-2009 Great Recession. So Biden’s bragging about the lowest unemployment rate since 1969 is meaningless in predicting recessions.

So, the January jobs report isn’t as surprising and strong as talking heads screamed about. I wish BLS would release non-seasonally adjusted (raw) data. But since we have a dysfunctional Federal government, I am not holding my breath.

And I wouldn’t consider averrage hourly earnings growth YoY of 4.42% when headline US inflation is 6.42% particularly brag worthy.

Of course, Biden lied about inheriting inflation from Trump. Inflation was 1.28% YoY in December 2020 just before Biden was sworn-in as President. Then again, Biden lies about everything. At least he just refused to comment on the Chinese Spy Balloons.

(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Food; Government; Politics
KEYWORDS: biden; blogpimp; inflation; jobs; jobsreport; retread; wages
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Given Biden's document scandal and Hunter's laptop with horrific corruption emails on it, I wouldn't be surprised if BLS cheated on the jobs report. Obama changed the defintion of median household income when the numbers looked bad, so his boss set a trend.
1 posted on 02/04/2023 7:38:44 AM PST by Kaiser8408a
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To: Kaiser8408a

But that negative real wage growth is what the investor class gushes about.


2 posted on 02/04/2023 7:44:18 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: Kaiser8408a

.


3 posted on 02/04/2023 7:45:51 AM PST by sauropod (“If they don’t believe our lies, well, that’s just conspiracy theorist stuff, there.”)
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To: Kaiser8408a
"...I wouldn't be surprised if BLS cheated..."

.

"There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics..." - Mark Twain

4 posted on 02/04/2023 7:46:57 AM PST by GaltAdonis
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To: Kaiser8408a

I haven’t been following economic stats for a while now, but the January report is when the BLS tries to clean up and fudge reports from the previous year...


5 posted on 02/04/2023 7:49:23 AM PST by EVO X ( )
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To: 9YearLurker

“But that negative real wage growth is what the investor class gushes about.

Oh yeah? Where?


6 posted on 02/04/2023 7:54:41 AM PST by SaxxonWoods (The only way to secure your own future is to create it yourself. 111 is the key.)
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To: Kaiser8408a

That “report” was just more FJB propaganda for him to spew at his big SOTU Show with guest stars, Tire Nickel’s parents having their privacy disrespected by the RATS. Their son is going to be an official prop of the FJB Brandon administration.


7 posted on 02/04/2023 7:56:52 AM PST by FlingWingFlyer (Remember what FJB Brandon said, "...more than half of the women in my administration are women.")
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To: Kaiser8408a

Always take measures to increase income by at least the rate of inflation.


8 posted on 02/04/2023 8:27:39 AM PST by Round Earther
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To: Kaiser8408a

If there is negative wage growth that means the companies are being unfair to workers. They need to revamp and make sure they are paying them properly.


9 posted on 02/04/2023 8:35:23 AM PST by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016 democratic )
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To: Round Earther

“Always take measures to increase income by at least the rate of inflation.”

Yes, I learned that in the late 70’s early 80’s. Side hustles, and buying little pieces of real estate. You could buy small building sites for less than a $1,000 back then. I bought a tiny industrial lot for $700 in about 1980. Sold it in ‘83 for $13,200. Bought a new Yamaha Maxim 1100 for $4,000 and reinvested the rest in more land. Repeated that basic action since then until now. I sold most of my real estate over the last few years, now watching a spectacular rural area for the next chance to buy some more.


10 posted on 02/04/2023 8:36:16 AM PST by SaxxonWoods (The only way to secure your own future is to create it yourself. 111 is the key.)
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To: napscoordinator

“They need to revamp and make sure they are paying them properly.”

Sounds so simple but it isn’t. ‘Pay them more’ has to be supported by enough revenue/profit to stay in business.


11 posted on 02/04/2023 8:38:54 AM PST by SaxxonWoods (The only way to secure your own future is to create it yourself. 111 is the key.)
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To: SaxxonWoods

If the CEOs are getting 7-25 million a year, the business is doing superior.


12 posted on 02/04/2023 8:39:58 AM PST by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016 democratic )
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To: Kaiser8408a

Cooked numbers hardly ever have an honest smell to them.


13 posted on 02/04/2023 8:41:45 AM PST by fella ("As it was before Noah so shall it be again," )
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To: Kaiser8408a

All of these wetbacks coming in will take most of these jobs.


14 posted on 02/04/2023 8:42:49 AM PST by HighSierra5 (The only way you know a commie is lying is when they open their pieholes.)
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To: napscoordinator

“If there is negative wage growth that means the companies are being unfair to workers.”

Employers are experiencing the inflation too, in all their costs. How do they “pay more” when their costs are inflating as well?


15 posted on 02/04/2023 8:44:49 AM PST by SaxxonWoods (The only way to secure your own future is to create it yourself. 111 is the key.)
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To: napscoordinator

They get paid according to what they produce. If they don’t produce they get fired and they do. You could split their pay up and give to the all the employees and they’d all get a few bucks apiece, once. Your take is straight communist economic theory.


16 posted on 02/04/2023 8:51:01 AM PST by SaxxonWoods (The only way to secure your own future is to create it yourself. 111 is the key.)
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To: SaxxonWoods

That is true. But companies have made historic revenues this year actually 2022. Businesses have never been better. They’re having a tough time finding people to work because unemployment 3.4%. We haven’t seen that since 1969.


17 posted on 02/04/2023 8:51:51 AM PST by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016 democratic )
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To: SaxxonWoods

Actually, if they’re firing people for not working, that’s what they should do. The unemployment rate is so low, which is why they’re finding it difficult to find people to work. It’s hardly communist.


18 posted on 02/04/2023 8:52:51 AM PST by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016 democratic )
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To: Kaiser8408a

Here’s a hint: When the enemedia refuse to provide a handy link to the actual BLS report, yeah, we’re being scammed.


19 posted on 02/04/2023 8:54:14 AM PST by mewzilla (We will never restore the republic if we don't first secure the ballot box.)
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To: SaxxonWoods

https://www.ziprecruiter.com/blog/jan-eci-rapid-reaction-2/


20 posted on 02/04/2023 9:01:48 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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