Posted on 01/22/2023 6:36:43 AM PST by Kaiser8408a
The first headline I saw when I turned on Bloomberg.com was “DOJ Officials Find More Classified Documents at President Biden’s Home.” This is an improvement! So far, the task has been handled by Biden’s private attorneys who don’t have proper security clearance; at least the Justice Department is finally getting involved!
But back to the US yield curve. It is now the most inverted in 30+ years as M2 Money growth stalls. Inverted yield curves have preceded recessions in the past.
But as China reopens and Europe is experiencing a warmer winter than expected (meaning that Europe has sufficient natural gas reserves) and US inflation cooling,
we are seeing market-implied odds of a recession falling in January.
I am still betting on a recession in the second half of 2023.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
Well, at least Biden can blame this on the new Republicans that took the seats in the U.S. Congress.
If the US dollar goes here comes China and the Yuan will become the World Reserve Currency. Get ready to become a third World Country; America.
Correction: Biden is killing us by over-spending.
FED is trying to control inflation created by Biden.
It already is. Travel to some Asian countries such as Singapore or Malaysia, then fly back to US airports and you will feel like you have entered a 3rd world country.
If the US dollar goes here comes China and the Yuan will become the World Reserve Currency. Get ready to become a third World Country; America.
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The US is as we speak becoming “ de-dollarized”. The petro dollar is gone, the Sauds now accepting Rubles and Yuan for oil, all this started with senile Joe’s sanctions and his Ukie war. The entire world’s currency markets are turned on their heads.
As many great financial greats have noted, we are beginning to see the shift to “ commodity based” currencies. Note Russia, which has vast quantities of food, grain, oil, energy,metals, etc. gain in value.
Fertilizer, water, etc…
Thank you Vegetable Head.
Headline: Brazil and Argentina will soon announce preparations to create a common currency
“The initial intention is that this new currency — whose name, Brazil proposes, will be “the South” — will boost regional trade and reduce the impact of the dollar.”
No incentive for Brazil to do this. It will just water down their currency.
Right now $1 = about 5.20 BRL (Brazilian Real) and about 183 ARS (Argentine Peso)
In US Dollar terms, the Brazilian Real is about 90 times stronger than the Argentine Peso.
Sorry. BRL is about 36 times stronger than ARS, not 90.
The message from the inverted yield curve is that the Fed has mistakenly raised the short-term overnight and discount rates way to high because they are looking at the inflation they induced two years ago driven by the mistaken shutdown of the economy and thinking this is the same as the demand driven inflation created in the 1970’s.
The Fed arbitrarily sets these rates to simply moderate the amount of reserves held by the primary dealer banks. High rates stimulate people with cash (M2) to buy Treasuries thus draining the bank reserves.
The logic is that this keeps businesses from spending their cash on productive assets like capital goods and R&D and cut costs by reducing their labor force. It’s totally wrong and harmful but they are captives of the monetarist indoctrination they received at their prestigeous universities and no one will dissent for fear of losing power.
What do you mean by demand driven inflation?
We are in a recession now. Second half of 2023 will see us in a hard recession, slipping towards a depression.
Demand goes up, but the availability either remains the same or decreases; thereby increasing scarcity and causing prices to rise.
I see. Well, perhaps this “effort” is no more than a publicity notice. Or, if intended as a serious negotiation, Brazil would recieve other considerations.
Get ready to become a third World Country; America.
We are making good progress. Life expectancy down, crime in cities up, Biden running money laundering - Ukraine.
Leaning banana republic.
So Saddam said he would only take pay for oil in euros.
Iraq bombed to smithereens.
Khaddafi proposes a currency for the entire continent of Africa. Bam. Libya destroyed.
Watch the news for a need for our military intervention in one of these two countries.
-PJ
That’s not inflation.
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