Posted on 01/18/2023 8:26:05 AM PST by Kaiser8408a
Soft landing for the US economy? It is looking less and less likely. The bond market (10-year Treasury yield) just shed -14.1 basis points. As I always told my investments students, any 10 basis point shift in the 10-year Treasury yield is significant.
Let’s start wit the US business leaders survey of current conditions. It just crashed to -21.4
Then we have US industrial production, down -0.7% in December. And is up only 1.65% year-over-year as M2 Money growth stalls.
Capacity Utilization plunged more than expected to 78.7% (79.5% exp).
Biden claiming the US economy is strong is pure Fantasy Island.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
For example the psychotic "retooling" for an all EV vehicle fleet will fail, it will fail miserably and take the whole economy with it.
Interesting, isn’t it? The cycle is a bit different every time, trying to read it is what’s so interesting.
Black Swans out there too, adding to the fun.
But ESG was always Counter-intuitive. Do we have that many trust fund bebies in the US market that were willing to sacrifice their own portfolio for stupid virtue signaling to the New World Order?
ESG may be suffering blow back, but it has already done its damage. Look at Goldman Sachs. Look at the Wall Steet Journal, I heard that the WSJ is being sued for offering “free ESG” investment advice to retuning subscribers.
Yeah, I understand. I’ve been permanently optimistic for 45 years and it has worked out great. The person who told me fortunes are made during crashes and lost during booms was right. Ther person who told me refusal to panic can cure almost any mistake was SO right. The person who told me to write and update regularly a 1yr, 5yr, 10yr, and 20yr plan was SO right. (20yr only plan applicable to my heirs now, but that’s life).
I’m bullish because I look 6 months to 7 years ahead in my old age. When I was younger I looked 25 years ahead and actually owned one piece of land that long.
I drive by looking as far down the road as possible while ignoring my hood ornament.
Well, there’s always suicide but I’ve done OK so someone will have to kill themselves over ESG.
Comment on that, please.
Yes. A lot of “this has never happened before” starting in about 2007...
For example, the macro economic research firm we use (Strategas) pointed out today that this is the first time in 50 years that gold has outperformed stocks off 3 months after a mkt bottom.
And just wait until we lose global reserve currency position . . . .
Trump is going to have a lot of work to do after he is re-elected.
This will be a big disappointment for the run-of-the-mill donkey party anarchists and nihilists, the overload-the-system-to-destroy-it-Cloward-Pivenists, the Davos-Gathering Build-Back-Betterists, and the Rahm Emmanuel/Obama Never-Waste-a-Crisis-ists.
Oooh...impressive.
That said if you had a hood ornament like mine you would stare at it all the day long. Mesmerized by its beauty.
Good point in reckoning.
Jimmah forced the global economy then.
this is no different, cepting the numbers are larger.
And there are more organized Marxists in place
Yep, they are driving the shit show.
Lol
Question about unemployment. What is the labor force participation rate?
I constantly hear from employers that they can’t find anybody who wants to work. One woman told be people might work for a week or so and never come back.
Unemployment is a lagging indicator.
The most recent labor force participation rate was 62.3% (published 12/2).
We have done better than OK, but the ride is ending, thanks to the d,age to the market from ESG. Governor Inslee is now planning to tax capital gains, it is just on high earners right now, but a tax on high earners tuns into a death tax eventually.
Good point.
5.56mm
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