Posted on 12/10/2022 9:41:20 AM PST by Kaiser8408a
This will be the last time (Fed rate hikes) as the US economy is forecast to either go into a recession in 2023 or slow down to an anemic 1.20% Real GDP YoY. Even the Fed is forecasting 3.10% core inflation in 2023, still higher than their target rate of 2%.
Commercial mortgage bonds could get clobbered in the coming months, and investors are backing away from the securities.
Some $34 billion of the bonds come due in 2023, and refinancing property loans is difficult now. Property prices could fall 10% to 15% next year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists. And some types of properties seem particularly vulnerable as, for example, city workers are slow to come back to their offices full time.
That may be why spreads on BBB commercial mortgage bonds have widened by about 2.7 percentage points this year through Thursday to around 6.6%, for the securities without government backing. They are now at their widest since January 2021. They’ve been getting hit particularly hard in the last few months, even as risk premiums on investment-grade and high-yield corporates have been shrinking on hopes the Federal Reserve will scale back its tightening campaign.
While most are calling for more rate hikes in 2023, I predicted that December’s likely 50 basis point hike with be the last one for a while as the US economy grinds to a halt. Or it’s all over now for Fed rate hikes.
While The Fed predicts slow growth, markets are pointing to recession. The Fed is out of touch with reality. As is the US Secretarty of Treasury, “Too low for too long” Janet Yellen.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
Cpi gonna come in hot on tuesday, from what the Cleveland fed is showing.
I sure hope so. Even better though would for the ugly to get worse in ‘24.
The real rate increase is still negative. The fed will go timid too soon.
I agree. There’s a higher probably of the Fed raising more than 3 more times than December’s 50 b.p. hike being the last one.
Your idea of FREE $$$ for everyone is very tempting, where can I get mine? /s
Yup. Just ask Mick Jagger.
The Fed can't give me back that locked-in 50% more I'm already paying.
Earlier in the week the financial media seemed to be anticipating a 0.50% increase.
Some reports later in the week indicated that inflation has not really changed. August and September were revised slightly upward. November ticked down about 0.01% but additional reports are coming early next week. That may influence the FED to go another 0.75%.
In other news, gas prices are dropping drastically. Earlier this week one local station had it as $2.59. Today it is at $2.44.
The Fed does not possess the tools necessary to fix the Stupid Biden Policies causing our economic problems.
"The Last Time (For Fed [??? emphasis added] Hikes Rates)? Fed Forecasts SLOW Growth 1.2% YoY In 2023 As CMBS Are Getting Hit (Investors Worry About Credit Risk As Economy Weakens)"
FR: Never Accept the Premise of Your Opponent’s Argument
Activist President Woodrow Wilson wrongly did not lead Congress to first successfully petition the states for an appropriate amendment to the Constitution to change Congress's Article I, Section 8, Clause 5 power to regulate value of money before establishing the constitutionally undefined Federal Reserve.
"Article I, Section 8, Clause 5: To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof [emphasis added], and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;"
"Article I, Section 10, Clause 1: No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts [emphases added]; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility."
So Congress and Oval Office, not the smoke-and-mirrors Federal Reserve, must take full responsibility at the ballot box for any damage that the unconstitutional, third-party Federal Reserve causes with the economy imo.
Thanks for reply.
Regarding so-called federal banking regulations and Labor Department, the states have never expressly constitutionally given the federal government the specific power to regulate those things, and a whole lot of other so-called federal power things that are actually state power issues imo.
"10th Amendment: The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people."
"Congress is not empowered to tax for those purposes which are within the exclusive province of the States." —Justice John Marshall, Gibbons v. Ogden, 1824.
"From the accepted doctrine that the United States is a government of delegated powers, it follows that those not expressly granted, or reasonably to be implied from such as are conferred, are reserved to the states, or to the people. To forestall any suggestion to the contrary, the Tenth Amendment was adopted. The same proposition, otherwise stated, is that powers not granted are prohibited [emphasis added]." —United States v. Butler, 1936.
In fact, Alexander Hamilton's national bank under President George Washington was the first major federal government overreach scandal imo.
Then, there is….
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/digital-currency-fed-moves-toward-monetary-totalitarianism
On tuesday and wednesday of next week the FED will announce a rate hike.
It might be .50%
Some will say that Wall Street has already factored it in and even when they guess right in the past the stock prices go down 5% or 10%.
For some computer stocks: AMD went up 2 weeks ago then the last days it fell 8.5% and nvidia was flat over the 2 weeks with a dip with wednesday being the bottom then up again. It use to be a $100 stock but not since August.
Apple down 3.82% over 5 days, Qualcomm down 5.28% as well.
I am thinking the FED rate hike will not be viewed as positive as it will mean higher prices for everything.
Christmas sales better be real good or the stocks will fall some more.
American consumers spent a record $5.3 billion online on Thanksgiving day according to Adobe Analytics, up 3% over last year and spurred by the trend of closed physical stores on that day.Dec 1, 2022
https://www.practicalecommerce.com/sales-report-2022-thanksgiving-black-friday-cyber-monday
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