Posted on 11/24/2022 8:26:09 AM PST by Kaiser8408a
What interest rates are telling us is a bad sign.
With an impending railroad strike that can torpedo the US economy (but if that is possible, why is the Biden Clan vacationing in Nantucket for Thanksgiving weekend when Joe should be talking with railroads and the unions to not let this happen?), let’s see what interest rates are telling us.
First, the US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve continues to descrend into the abyss (now at -80 basis points).
Second, the latest Fed Dot Plot (from September, new one will be issued during December) show that The Fed thinks that their target rate, while rising in 2023, will likely start falling again in 2024.
Third, since it is Thanksgiving Day, US bond markets are closed. But in Europe, the 10-year sovereign yields are falling, a sign that the ECB is reversing course by increasing monetary stimulus and/or a European are slow down.
Fourth, US mortgage rates have cooled since peaking (locally) at 7.35% on November 3, 2022 and now sit at 6.81%, a decline of 54 basis points. A clear sign of cooling.
Fifth, how about Fed Funds Futures data? It is pointing to a peak Fed Funds Target rate of 4.593% at the June FOMC meeting. Then a decline in rates to 2.301% by January 2024.
Now, go and enjoy your Thanksgiving dinner with friends and family (up 20% since last year), courtesy of Jerome Powell, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
There is not a single thing anyone can do about it. If the nation turns back to God, God himself will get rid of these corrupt people. Try the “...back to God” thing, or just live with it.
The “God thing” isn’t going to happen for the majority.
Praying isn’t an economic decision or strategy.
Greater production and less governmental spending are policies.
Self-reliance and hard work are decisions that can help the economy.
Though that has as much chance as praying does with our current society and demographic shift.
There’s no free lunch once inflation gets embedded in the economy. Things are going a bit better than I expected. We’ll work through this.
It doesn’t matter. The country has reached critical mass of idiots, layabouts, gibsmedats, narcissists, and feeble willed adult children.
It will when things get bad enough. The "God thing" creates the appropriate values for all of the positive things you said. Without Him, it doesn't. Or, just live with it.
That’s your opinion. Do you mean “your God” or anyone’s God?
I do agree the foundations of our country were based on Christian morals.
I also agree our direction is towards no judgement on anything, except decency. Liberal thought is, in my opinion, just Contrarianism.
Why does everyone who wants the ‘God thing’ to happen in politics or the culture always assume it will be *their* version of ‘God’ that is the one?
I don’t want a ‘Christian Nation’ because I don’t want an ‘Islamic’ Nation or a ‘Satanic Nation’. I want a nation where the Constitution is followed to the degree that a Christian, Islamist, Satanist, Sikh, Jew, or Pastafarian can worship freely and follow their faith without the ability to force anyone else to abide by that faith.
There’s nothing wrong and much that is right with a person following the Lord and reaping the blessings, of course.
The God of the Bible. The only God. There is no other God. All of the answers to the world's problems are in the Bible. It's there. Nothing else is working. Besides that, we have to live with it, or go to war and die for a pointless, political reason.
Doesn't need to be a "Christian" nation officially as long as the majority of the people go back to following God, things will be much better. And, if you want to reject God, be careful what you wish for...
Good luck with that.
“Why does everyone who wants the ‘God thing’ to happen in politics or the culture always assume it will be *their* version of ‘God’ that is the one?”
Because their bias is deeper than any other bias.
Many root for society to turn to anarchy and destruction so people will turn to (their) God.
Most are trash because they want terrible things to happen in society, as if it’s the only way.
I must have seen Ezekiel being referenced here thousands of times since W was in office.
Just more ‘Sky is falling’ BS. People have been expecting the ‘end of days’ since we’ve had religion, and people have freaked out about impiety since before Tut.
> Things are going a bit better than I expected. We’ll work through this. <
It’s good to see something that’s at least a little optimistic. Anyway, I’m getting older, so I want less of my money in the stock market and more in fixed income. I’m thinking I should be in ultra-low maturity stuff now, like a good money market fund. I’m curious what you’re thoughts are on this.
Fine; nothing wrong with that. The founders planned it that way.
But don't forget, the founders recognized Jesus as Lord and said so in the U.S. Constitution.
Interest rates are telling us the Fed is a bunch of idiots who are killing us.
There is no price discovery in either the stock market or the debt market. It is really hard to asset what is going on because of the federal reserve bank is trading stocks and buying debt.
The economy feels sick because of inflation. The dollar is losing value every day I just don’t want to be in or near a big city when EBT and social security blow up.
As Greenspan said we can guarantee SS payment we just can’t guarantee the purchasing power .
Thanks. I have been retired for 13 years (since age 60) though I stayed active in real estate investing until selling some pieces off the last few years. I will be active again when the cycle turns, I’ve done it since about 1980, started very small, worked my way up by reinvesting over time. Adding to my farm/ranch land is on my radar. That’s for enjoyment now and my heirs.
I agree with your general idea about the stock market and fixed income. I have been buying and rolling over short-term Treasuries since they started beating band interest rates plus T-Bond income is tax-free. My newer T-bill buys are paying over 4% annualized (3 month-6 months duration, I just keep rolling them when they mature.) I beat the banks plus pay no taxes, and there’s no risk of loss when you hold to maturity. That’s about 40% of my invested money outside real estate. (I have cash too, but don’t count that as invested money).
One suggestion you can research: Over half my stock positions are ‘preferred’ stocks. Their prices have dropped significantly as interest rates have climbed but they still pay their stated dividends. (Dividend income is taxed less than regular income). Their share prices are low now and will increase rapidly when rates turn the corner and go down again. I went through the same process in 2020 when they went down and shot back up again. Many of them are paying around 7-8% now. When T-bills peak and start down I will rotate out of them and into more preferred stocks, they are very interest rate sensitive.
I suggest reading on preferred stocks and how they work and their protections against loss which are better than common stocks. Good fortune with your investing!
I’m not counting out God, but most of our citizens.
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