— Dr. Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) November 13, 2022
Posted on 11/13/2022 6:32:57 PM PST by SeekAndFind
I’ve seen a lot of rationales being tossed around for why the Republicans didn’t win more despite what all the polls and data points suggested.
I must confess, I’m not particularly satisfied with any of the answers I’ve seen.
Yes, could some candidates have been better? No doubt. But Democrats got John Fetterman in and even voted for a dead man. So let’s not even pretend the quality of the candidate or even being alive truly matters. If you voted in Fetterman, it’s all based on wanting power for your party, no matter what.
Did Sen Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) take some money away from races where they should have put it? You bet. McConnell put money toward trying to help Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) beat Trump-endorsed Republican Kelly Tshibaka. That was wrong, especially after Murkowski endorsed the Democrat running for the House seat, Mary Peltola. That should have been the kiss of death after such a betrayal. McConnell was actively helping someone working against the Republican Party in the state.
Are there points to be made about how Republicans can do more to collect the ballots where that’s legal? Of course. We knew that in 2020, but Republicans don’t seem to have advanced much on that point.
But how to explain all the polls indicating things were breaking for the Republicans, that independents were breaking for Republicans as well? Were they all wrong? Poll after poll showed that people were upset with Joe Biden and that they believed the country was heading in the wrong direction. Poll after poll showed that abortion wasn’t up at the top of the motivating factors.
We saw places where the red wave did appear to show up, such as in Florida where Gov. Ron DeSantis won by almost twenty points and Republicans even flipped Miami-Dade. Are there points to be made about making a positive case — what the Republicans have to offer — not just the negative case — the existential awfulness of the Democratic policies? Sure.
But one of the things getting lost in this general whine about not winning more is what the Republicans did pick up, and I don’t just mean in Florida or New York, although they made great strides in both places.
What’s getting lost is that — at least as of this moment — Republicans have picked up more of the popular vote, by a pretty fair amount, although that might close some when the rest of the West comes in.
— Dr. Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) November 13, 2022
This was a possibility that Nate Cohn talked about in October, with the Democrats holding onto more seats than one might think in such a midterm year.
As the folks from RealClearPolitics explain:
The more you dig through the #s the more stunning this election looks. GOP moved the national vote roughly 7 points in their direction from 2020 but will gain only a handful of House seats & make no gains (or may even lose a seat) in the Senate…..
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 13, 2022
despite the fact three of those races took place in states that were razor close in 2020 (GA, AZ, and NV) – and despite the fact Biden’s approval rating was in the low 40s in all of them.
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 13, 2022
One of the quiet stories under the hood is that Republicans are looking like they'll win the popular vote. Probably a popular vote swing of 5% (depending on how CA votes work out), swinging about 2% of the chamber. IOW, the generic polls are likely to be about spot on. Why? 1/
— Sean T at RCP is a free elf (@SeanTrende) November 10, 2022
So that might be the way to reconcile some of the polls: inefficient vote distribution, the red areas got redder and Republicans picked up black and Latino votes, but in areas that didn’t flip races.
But some of the other things don’t make sense to me.
Even though according to the exit polls the economy was the number one issue for voters, it wasn’t as dominant as expected. And those who rated the economy ‘not so good’ overwhelmingly voted for Dems, including in all the major senate races – even in Florida where Rubio won big.
pic.twitter.com/QiEzRT7OoK— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 13, 2022
The last time that happened was 2002, an anomaly that was attributed to it being the first election post-9/11 and a president with a 60+% approval rating. Dems fared well in 1998 despite losing Indies, but Bill Clinton also had an approval rating well over 50%.
pic.twitter.com/eB63gCfQu6— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 13, 2022
This flies in the face of what I already said about the independents breaking to the GOP.
One last nugget: On avg, Dems voted 3 pts more along partisan lines in battleground Senate races than GOP. Made a difference in GA, AZ, and NV.....
Obviously, all of this speaks to GOP candidate quality being a factor in some Senate races. But that still doesn’t explain GOP underperformance in the House. /end
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 13, 2022
So I’m going to lay all these ideas down, but frankly, I’m with Bevan here — the results don’t make sense to me, given what we saw going into the election. But we need to ensure we do not get consumed by infighting and lock down a Herschel Walker win in Georgia.
“the results don’t make sense to me,”
That’s because he didn’t consider fraud.
Desantis put huge voting reforms in place to ensure election integrity in Florida and it paid off big time.
States where R’s let the fraud mechanisms persist from 2020 (and grow worse in many place) got shellacked even though the candidates were far better than the Dem candidates.
Fraud is still the ugly word that most won’t touch. You’ll never convince me that it wasn’t massive Dem fraud that stole 2020 and many of the 2022 races.
Because it doesn’t count the early vote.
.
The conservatives better come up with a plan and fast.
Young people believe in Socialism.
Activists targeted young kids for indoctrination in schools.
Black people vote 90% plus for Dems, no matter the Dem.
DA’s were recruited and funded by Soros.
The Voting Machine is controlled by Dems.
over 90% of the DoJ contribute to Democrats.
And the Republican leadership loathes Conservatives.
Not an overreaction, because most of the R’s in DC will work to get Biden victories.
.
A great listing there,
If I could add one thing (which really isn’t necessary)…that most women voters will literally let you do anything and still support you, if you will just let them kill their children.
Voter fraud and ballot harvesting are the only explanations that make sense.
Ping
"the popular vote"
Which the Democrats manufacture AT WILL.
Nick Arama needs to sit back down at the kiddie table, and stifle himself.
My trusty Obama 2008 Vote Fraud Detection tool shows that 2020 was stolen.
I've just started running it on the 2022 races.
Trump is blamed FOR THE RED DUD (NOT WAVE) in the other 49 States. Now we hear all this talk about how DeSantis should run in 2024, not Trump. I suppose this means the DemonRat cabal has the goods on DeSantis and can CONTROL him like they couldn't control Trump.
Gerry-Freaking-Mandering. And mail ballots.
“Young people believe in Socialism.”
The $31 trillion in national debt (soon to be $35 trillion and growing) will cause this nation to possibly collapse before another decade rolls by. This is the dirty little secret that keeps the uniparty together and growing and it will take a Convention of States on our side to fix it.
This won’t happen in our lifetimes but another depression is not a crackpot idea talking but a distinct possibility. The kiddos aren’t gonna like socialism/communism so much anymore.
That’s the only scenario I can think of that makes the GOPe a thing of the past you read about in history books.
“Nick Arama needs to sit back down at the kiddie table, and stifle himself.”
Yep. Every word he wrote presupposes honest and accurate vote tallies. We are so far gone from those days it’s laughable.
We can't confront them, because all they'll do is shoot any dissenters down like dogs, then smear them after they're dead.
But we can Honey Badger up.
North Dakota was not a red dud.
It is all about VBM, vote by mail and vote harvesting, illegal in every European democracy but that is how Fetterman got 70% of his vote before the one debate.
Basically each party knows where its registered voters are. Dems go and ask to turn in their ballot or mail it for them-and probably offer to fill it in.
They have an election month. We have a day
We need to play the game.
I'm registered independent. So they wouldn't try to harvest my vote, ha. But yep. We need to harvest every GOP voter in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
