My 2¢ and half guesses:
What this shows is, there is in fact a Russia withdrawal from Kherson, and their hold on the area is at risk.
The operation Ukraine is conducting in Kherson is a seige, not a dramatic "Thunder Run". Ukraine largely cut off the Russian army in Kherson, then worked to take out bridges and resupply, and waited. Russia can not hold as much as they want as their supplies are all getting depleted. In response they are getting their civilans out and trying to build up stronger defensable positions to cover the withdrawal and hold out.
The fighthing in Kherson is going at a snail's pace for both sides. When looking at miltary operations for the last 30 years like Desert Storm, this is not what Western audiences following the news think a miltary operation looks like. For Ukraine, they want to get Kherson intact. For Russia, they want to lose as little as possible and drag it out as long as possible. Both sides are going slow by necessity.
A pretty good analysis. This is a return to positional warfare.
The second thing you may not be aware of is how ideological the academic-sounding Institute for the Study of War is. It has neoconservative roots and is run and staffed by pretty extreme hawks. Over the years it has gotten funding from various corners of the arms industry—General Dynamics, Raytheon, lesser known defense contractors, and big companies, like General Motors, that aren’t known as defense contractors but do get Pentagon contracts.
The assessment is absolute BS. Ukies are getting a royal beatdown in the north of Kherson region, and are currently evacuating Nikolayev.
I can’t exclude that the Russian forces are going to leave Kherson, but that if it is going to be unreasonable to hold to it, like if the Ukies are to finally blow the dam.
The ISW’s “analysis” leaves much to be desired. My assessment (from looking at information sources from BOTH sides - I know, that’s a novel concept here)) is that the Russians are having “non-essential” civilians evacuate from the right bank of the river. That way they won’t have to resupply the civilians’ needs for survival. They’ll be able to focus solely on the logistics needed to support their military forces there. And they are substantially increasing their forces there.
What is this institutes track record ?
Russians HAVE NOT withdrawn from Kherson. They have EVACUATED CIVILIANS, i.e. cleared the decks for action. Hohos need to overthrow the pervocracy in Kiev and save themselves from this nato/neocon meat-grinding process wshich is basically just using theRussian military to reduce the male population of Hohostan ffor the glory of "Gaia"...
Apologies if this has been mentioned elsewhere, but it looks like another four Ukrainian oblasts will be voting on whether to leave Ukraine and join Russia. Putin’s gettin’ the band back together!
The title should be:
“How to win a battle and lose a war.”
Putin is in it for the long haul and no matter what current conditions are on the ground, Russia is surely rejoicing at the political mess in Britain and the bleeding of the U.S. and European economy, the unsustainable U.S. national debt, spiralling inflation, and expected results of our midterm elections. Their strategy is death by a thousand cuts.
Neocon site no offense maybe the best honestly
Alternative news and podcasts are far different
Admittedly one has to look for them
These same sites all readily acknowledged the ukrop advance into kherson a month ago
Media dead silent on Bakhmut
Dang wonder why that is
Whatever happens literally
The Red Army camped in Kiev and Lviv
Zekensky hanging from a lamppost
Western media would describe it a crushing defeat for ol’ Vlad
Don’t doubt me
Yesterday I saw eyewitness accounts that ukrop artillery bombed many civilians targets in Donbas as they have since 2014
One hit an orphanage
Anyone see one word of that on western media
Of course not
And if they did they would say Russia did it
Despite me watching interviews with the obvious victims
Staged of course right?
Those damn Russians are so meanie they love killing the very people who wish to be part of Russia
Makes perfect sense to neo liberals and neo cons
I mean in WWII we bombed hell out of London and Birmingham
We showed those Nazis didn’t we
(Thinking Belushi)
review
Its completely stupid for the ukes to allow the russians to stage an orderly retreat. They should withdraw two thirds of their 40k troops from the west of the dneiper and place them south east of zhaporista in the section of the line that the russians are not heavily defending. then attack south and south west in two pincers. one pincer goes around behind the russian strong point south of zaporisata and the other attacks directly south to undefended rear to melitopol. and then sweep west.
the orderly retreat from kherson will turn into a disorderly rout.