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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21
The Institute for the Study of War ^ | October 21, 2022 | Katherine Lawlor, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

Posted on 10/22/2022 5:04:26 PM PDT by Widget Jr

The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated on October 21 that Russian forces are “quite actively” transferring ammunition, military equipment, and some unspecified units from the Dnipro River’s west bank to the east bank via ferries.[1] The Southern Operational Command added that Russian forces deployed 2,000 mobilized men to hold the frontlines and are continuing to shell Ukrainian positions, likely in an effort to cover their withdrawal.[2] Ukrainian military officials reported that the Russian occupation administration is preparing the evacuation of imported Russian specialists, Ukrainian collaborators, and Kherson’s banking system.[3] Russian occupation administration in Beryslav and humanitarian facilities in Kherson City also reportedly ceased operations.[4]

[ Excerpt / Long article ]


TOPICS: Government; Military/Veterans; Politics
KEYWORDS: frederickwkagan; georgebarros; gracemappes; instituteforwargrift; invasion; isw; katerynastepanenko; katherinelawlor; kherson; putinlostkherson; putinsbuttkissers; russia; ukraine; vatniks; warpigsonparade
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To: Blurb2350

Interesting.


41 posted on 10/22/2022 7:31:50 PM PDT by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: freeandfreezing

“ These Russian troops are withdrawing from the Kherson area. And they took pictures to prove it.”
******************************************************************

I’m guessing you’re unaware that trucks carry resupply to troop locations and then drive back, usually empty, to pick up additional supplies to be delivered.


42 posted on 10/22/2022 7:56:12 PM PDT by House Atreides (I’m now ULTRA-MAGA-PRO-MAX)
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To: sauropod

review


43 posted on 10/23/2022 5:15:06 AM PDT by sauropod (The New York Times' 1619 Project's Nikole Hannah-Jones: "all journalism is activism.")
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To: Farmerbob

United States needs to get more involved in Ukraine war. So what if we have to borrow more and increase national debt? We are the mighty world police. We must protect Ukraines border. So what if our own border is a complete disaster. Borders of most corrupt country in the world are more important than our own borders. So what if Putin starts a nuclear war with us? We have plenty of nukes to retaliate. Hey we nuked Japan and Japan is still out. We will survive Putin’s nukes just fine. If we don’t send more borrowed money to Ukraine, how is Hunter going to make more millions from Ukraine? The big guy deserves 10%. /S/S/S


44 posted on 10/23/2022 5:40:42 AM PDT by entropy12
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To: Widget Jr

Its completely stupid for the ukes to allow the russians to stage an orderly retreat. They should withdraw two thirds of their 40k troops from the west of the dneiper and place them south east of zhaporista in the section of the line that the russians are not heavily defending. then attack south and south west in two pincers. one pincer goes around behind the russian strong point south of zaporisata and the other attacks directly south to undefended rear to melitopol. and then sweep west.

the orderly retreat from kherson will turn into a disorderly rout.


45 posted on 10/23/2022 7:17:12 AM PDT by ckilmer (qui)
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To: freeandfreezing

You’re only informed by the propaganda

I can educate you if you’d like

I’m pro truth

Truth is Donbass is mostly Russian and wants independence Crimea was similar

And have suffered from Kiev

Putin or Z other motives are beside that fact


46 posted on 10/23/2022 7:38:29 AM PDT by wardaddy (Sound and Fury Republic now home to more than a few globalists who really love the mainstream media )
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To: Bruce Campbells Chin

Yet incredibly, they still refuse to admit that things haven’t gone exactly according to plan. Every single thread since this war began has bottled any reported Ukrainian success, and lauded the continuous flow of Russian victories. And yet...the Russians magically control less territory than they did a few months ago.


A lot of them have a strongman fetish. It started here back when Obama was POTUS. They can’t adjust their world view because the current battlefield reality shatters their years long fantasies about Dear Leader Putin and his Potemkin Russia.


47 posted on 10/23/2022 7:46:00 AM PDT by lodi90
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To: ckilmer

Russians will blow the dam if Ukraine launches a big offense in Kherson now. Stalin did the same during WW2. The usual KGB thug blackmail here. So we will have a quid pro quo most likely. Ukraine will allow the Russian army to run away in humiliation and Russia won’t blow the dam.


48 posted on 10/23/2022 9:09:10 AM PDT by lodi90
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To: wardaddy
Truth is Donbass is mostly Russian and wants independence Crimea was similar

That does not seem to be what the locals say. But believe what you want.

49 posted on 10/23/2022 9:58:02 AM PDT by freeandfreezing
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To: lodi90
A lot of them have a strongman fetish.

That's a great observation, and I can't stand the whole "strongman" approach to politics. It's what Central/South America and Africa tend to be political hellholes. The people latch on to some politician as the embodiment of all their hopes and dreams, and develop a loyalty towards him that exceed loyalty to the country or ideas as a whole. It's populism run amok.

50 posted on 10/23/2022 10:15:07 AM PDT by Bruce Campbells Chin
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To: ckilmer
That would be a nice plan, but the Uke's may feel they don't have enough mechanized assets to pull that off. If the eastern/southernmost pincer isn't strong enough to protect its left flanks, it could be very vulnerable to a counter-attack that blows the whole thing up.

They may just want the more sure/safe win.

51 posted on 10/23/2022 10:19:52 AM PDT by Bruce Campbells Chin
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To: House Atreides

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJiNl0xDe3U&t=1s

This is a fair explanation.


52 posted on 10/23/2022 10:21:33 AM PDT by dforest
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To: dforest
If you can put up with "Lazerpig's" humor, there is The Gonzalo Lira Roundtable do not know what they are talking about, Brian Berlitic is one guest on the roundtable who, as the title implies, does not know what he is talking about.

Berlitic gimmick is to present himself as a reasonable former military man, while putting his spin on presenting current anti-US talking points. He is a classic tankie and useful idiot. Which side the US is on, is always the wrong side because the US is supporting that side.

Reality and basic reasoning skills are selectively discarded when they become obviously problematic. If what he has been saying all along is right, then the entire Ukrainian armed forces were wiped out months and all Russia has to do is drive west and occupy the entire country. The same goes for Scott Ritter, Macgregor, Gonzalo Lira, Lee Camp, and everyone else repeating the same Russian talking points.

Here is a easy way to evaluate anyone talking about Ukraine:

If they say Bakhmut is critically important to the war they are the lowest grade pro-Russian shill.

53 posted on 10/23/2022 11:15:13 PM PDT by Widget Jr (🇺🇦 Sláva Ukrayíni 🇺🇦 - Just say no to CCCP 2.0)
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