Posted on 09/22/2022 6:03:39 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
European natural gas inventories rose by +73 BCF over past 7 days.
EU nat gas storage 87% full.
Current inventories at 3316 BCF.
21.3% higher than 1 year ago.
EU goal is at least 80% full by Nov 1st for winter.
Current projection is for EU to reach 93% by Nov 1st.
(Excerpt) Read more at celsiusenergy.net ...
Don’t forget......... Help is needed
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4095195/posts
Curiously, the price of Natural Gas on the NYME is just 36% higher today than one year ago.
With all the Ukraine related turmoil, I would have guessed much higher than that.
Perhaps the New York Mercantile Exchange price does not reflect the European price?
I do not follow world Nat Gas prices closely, so I am just guessing here.
Oil and natural gas prices continue to decline from their wartime highs.
Down 1/3rd for European oil, and almost 1/2 for European natural gas.
“Perhaps the New York Mercantile Exchange price does not reflect the European price?”
The European price for natural gas ( like the Dutch TTF) rose much more than American prices during the war, but have dropped back significantly from their peak in August, when it became clear that Europe could meet its storage goals before Winter, without Russian gas.
From around 50 a year ago, it peaked near 350 on August 26, and has since dropped below 200.
“Curiously, the price of Natural Gas on the NYME is just 36% higher today than one year ago.
With all the Ukraine related turmoil, I would have guessed much higher than that.”
The price problem isn’t as much in the US, since our lack of facilities constrain what we can export, so most gas here is stuck on the US market.
Where it’s really biting is in Europe, as they’re having to bid against Asia and the rest of the world for the limited supply of LNG, due to their self-imposed embargo of Russian gas. Those prices were insane over the summer (over $500/barrel energy equivalent to crude), and now are somewhat lower (around $300/barrel), but still extremely high.
Where it gets interesting will be when the cold weather starts, as the storage capability of Europe is relatively small and may not be able ride out the lack of incoming Russian gas...at least without a complete shutdown of their society.
All that frack-able NG in the Appalachian Basin, and almost none of it could be exported to Europe.
Crazy - then Biden arrived and did his best to destroy tight shale fracking everywhere in the Lower 48!
Natural gas storage in Europe is about 3 months supply. If Russia cuts off all gas exports to Europe in October, the rubber meets the road in Europe in January. Entire economies are at risk.
Look for Germany and France to cut some sort of deal with Russia re Ukraine. The domestic pressure including civil unrest will be too great to ignore.
Germans are sounding pretty optimistic.
“German gas storage 90% full ahead of winter despite Russian cuts”
“German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said Germany has a chance of getting through the winter “comfortably” despite the lack of Russian gas. Germany is on track to meet a 95% storage capacity target by November.”
https://www.dw.com/en/german-gas-storage-90-full-ahead-of-winter-despite-russian-cuts/a-63178397
“Natural gas storage in Europe is about 3 months supply. If Russia cuts off all gas exports to Europe in October, the rubber meets the road in Europe in January.”
That would be if Russia provided 100% of the gas. It varies from Country to Country, but Europe-wide, Russia now provides less than 20%.
Several new LNG ports, and a new pipeline from Norway are to activate before the end of this year.
The markets assess that Europe is on now track to get through the Winter, with or without Russian gas. Natural gas prices in Europe have dropped almost in half over the last month.
“German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said Germany has a chance of getting through the winter “comfortably” despite the lack of Russian gas”
It is less likely however, that Russia will get through the Winter, or the next many years comfortably, without the revenue from those former gas sales.
Europe has signed long term supply contracts with other producers - 10 and 20 year contracts.
China will tell Russia what it will get for the remnants of Gazprom, and beggar Russia will have to take whatever its new overlord deigns to provide.
Putin did that.
‘’Crippling’ Energy Bills Force Europe’s Factories to Go Dark’
https://archive.ph/6Yg2a#selection-355.1-355.60
Energy markets being remade.
“Spain Says It Can Send France More Gas After Boosting Export Capacity”
“Spain completed tests at a natural gas facility that will boost its export capacity by 18%, paving the way for France to buy more as it reduces its reliance on Russian supplies.”
“The Irun station is one of two existing interconnections between Spain and France, and the expansion will now take the annual combined capacity to 8.5 billion cubic meters.”
“Natural gas prices in Europe have dropped almost in half over the last month.”
‘High Natural-Gas Prices Push European Manufacturers to Shift to the U.S.’
https://archive.ph/Tiv7j/again?url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-natural-gas-prices-push-european-manufacturers-to-shift-to-the-u-s-11663707594#selection-99.5-99.77
It is good that they are approaching their goals, but the fact remains, storage is intended to meet the seasonal winter rise in demand, along with the stable supply of pipeline gas as a baseline. Without the baseline of ongoing supply, storage cannot maintain the economy by itself for very long. LNG supplies are increasing but are a small part of the picture for this year at least. A cold winter will be difficult for Europe.
There is piped natural gas, and there is LNG.
Europe is attempting to substitute LNG for piped:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/natural-gas-price - Henry Hub, piped US domestic [comparable to Russian piped]
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/dutch-ttf-natural-gas-usd-mmbtu-icis-heren-front-month.html - LNG at Dutch main European hub
Henry Hub is at 7.57, TTF is 61.00 for Dec 2022.
Like a choice between the gas station with 4 buck a gallon gas, or the one across the street with 32 bucks a gallon gas.
The storage was meant as a BACKUP to the regular inflows from Russian pipelines - not as a replacement.
So, they have 93 percent of 20 percent of their needs.
Spain has surplus LNG terminal capacity, and a pipeline from Algeria.
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