“Natural gas storage in Europe is about 3 months supply. If Russia cuts off all gas exports to Europe in October, the rubber meets the road in Europe in January.”
That would be if Russia provided 100% of the gas. It varies from Country to Country, but Europe-wide, Russia now provides less than 20%.
Several new LNG ports, and a new pipeline from Norway are to activate before the end of this year.
The markets assess that Europe is on now track to get through the Winter, with or without Russian gas. Natural gas prices in Europe have dropped almost in half over the last month.
At what costs? You sound like Biden describing how much people are saving with the declining gas prices. He ignores the price people were paying when he was inaugurated.
Europe has seen the price of natural gas increase dramatically.
Europe's Policymakers Grapple With Soaring Natural Gas Prices
UK prime minister Liz Truss announced a price cap on natural gas to shelter households from the 80% increase scheduled for next month and more price resets slated for January and April 2023.
With no action, UK inflation could easily have topped 15% this year. With the cap, we expect inflation to end the year around 10%.
Even though the gas price caps will tamp down inflationary pressures, we still see plenty of scope for tighter BoE monetary policy.
Still Plenty of Room for Tighter BoE Monetary Policy
What about economic growth? We think the gas price cap will ease, but not eliminate, household pain. Even with the cap, natural gas costs almost 10 times today what it did at the start of 2021—a run-up that’s much more pronounced than other global commodity price increases.
Europe’s Natural Gas Prices Have Soared
Indexed Energy Prices (January 1, 2021 = 100) (Source: Refinitiv and Thomson Reuters Datastream)