“Curiously, the price of Natural Gas on the NYME is just 36% higher today than one year ago.
With all the Ukraine related turmoil, I would have guessed much higher than that.”
The price problem isn’t as much in the US, since our lack of facilities constrain what we can export, so most gas here is stuck on the US market.
Where it’s really biting is in Europe, as they’re having to bid against Asia and the rest of the world for the limited supply of LNG, due to their self-imposed embargo of Russian gas. Those prices were insane over the summer (over $500/barrel energy equivalent to crude), and now are somewhat lower (around $300/barrel), but still extremely high.
Where it gets interesting will be when the cold weather starts, as the storage capability of Europe is relatively small and may not be able ride out the lack of incoming Russian gas...at least without a complete shutdown of their society.
Natural gas storage in Europe is about 3 months supply. If Russia cuts off all gas exports to Europe in October, the rubber meets the road in Europe in January. Entire economies are at risk.
Look for Germany and France to cut some sort of deal with Russia re Ukraine. The domestic pressure including civil unrest will be too great to ignore.