Natural gas storage in Europe is about 3 months supply. If Russia cuts off all gas exports to Europe in October, the rubber meets the road in Europe in January. Entire economies are at risk.
Look for Germany and France to cut some sort of deal with Russia re Ukraine. The domestic pressure including civil unrest will be too great to ignore.
“Natural gas storage in Europe is about 3 months supply. If Russia cuts off all gas exports to Europe in October, the rubber meets the road in Europe in January.”
That would be if Russia provided 100% of the gas. It varies from Country to Country, but Europe-wide, Russia now provides less than 20%.
Several new LNG ports, and a new pipeline from Norway are to activate before the end of this year.
The markets assess that Europe is on now track to get through the Winter, with or without Russian gas. Natural gas prices in Europe have dropped almost in half over the last month.