Posted on 08/17/2022 7:40:09 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
This is a really good question and has piqued my interest since it speaks directly to my doctoral research, rendering me somewhat qualified to answer this question from a behavioural scientific perspective.
To understand the psychological outcome of this war, we need to understand what it is that Putin wants and then determine his current mindset with regards to the attainment of those desires or preferences. And here we run into problems, because in spite of the copious amount of ink spilt on the topic, nobody knows exactly - perhaps not even Putin himself - what he wants.
The signalling from the Kremlin ranging from NATO encroachment through de-Nazification, the possible dangers of future attacks, to downright imperialism, etc., etc., leave Putin lacking a unified message to his armies and people, and this is one of the reasons why the Kremlin have lost the information war so comprehensively.
However, it presents Putin with the unique situation within which he can slip and slide his way through this war without ever admitting defeat. For instance, following Mariupol he could simply have declared the de-Nazification process complete, called it a victory and withdrawn his armies. He could, but of course he never did, suggesting that it was never a true motive for this war.
If not true motives, what can we discern of his desires from his direction? For me, the helter-skelter of the first hours of the war is a solid indication - Putin never expected this war to last as long as it already has. In spite of the vatniks assuring us that ‘Kyiv was only a feint’, the observations on those first three days of battle belie such an assertion, baseless as it is.
Putin wanted Kyiv and he was certain that just in Crimea in 2014, his forces would take it with the minimum resistance. Zelynskyy was anticipated to flee Kyiv (or be assassinated by FSB teams inside Kyiv) and all resistance was sure to collapse at the first sign of trouble. However, none of this happened and the elite of the Russian Army were punished mercilessly for their hubris, most notably at Hostomel Airport.
As it may, Putin wanted Kyiv and for whatever we can say of the absolutely catastrophic opening phase of Russia’s war (and by God, it was so incredibly bad), he desired the Ukrainian government to collapse. Since that never happened, Putin has had to revise his preferences for the war, and then revise these again, and again, and again - in the process relieving no less than five (possibly six) theatre commanders of their posts, a list that includes the Butcher of Aleppo, Aleksandr Dvornikov - the Kremlin’s blue-eyed boy for all matters relating to genocide.
As the Russian armed forces struggle to reach even the reduced objectives and as the Ukrainian forces are now counter-attacking, I notice that the Russian invaders have become entirely reactive - they no longer dictate where the fighting should occur and when. For instance, when Ukraine broadcasted their plans to counter-attack towards Kherson, Russia drew down the resources for their offensives in Donbas and rushed these to the south to counter the Ukrainian initiative.
As the Russians crammed forces across the River Dnipro, Ukrainians simply applied their long-range artillery to destroy the sole remaining bridge there (the Antonivskyy bridge) and the Russians on the western bank of the Dnipro are now stuck and cut off from their lines of communication. In the mean while, Ukrainian forces started counter-attacking towards Izium and Russia lack the reserves to respond. Nor can Russia redeploy their forces in Kherson, because the bridge is down and the entire area is now a death trap.
But how does all of this translate into a response on your question? On the one side of the coin, it is legitimate to argue that Russia have already lost the war and that it is purely their preponderance in materiel that afford them to continue purely as a face-saving effort. But I understand that the psychology of conflict outcomes resides in a rarefied atmosphere and there may be those who prefer a more concrete indication of outcome.
To those, I believe that the Russians’ lack of reserves and initiative will cause the issue to come to a head before the end of this year, perhaps even before winter. Whichever way, it is only a matter of time - Russia’s defeat in Ukraine is now inevitable and I’m sure that Putin regrets the entire affair deeply.
You could say a similar situation exists with the "war" between LIV and the PGA Tour.
It all depends on how much the Saudis are willing to lose.
Back to the topic: "General" Winter will be arriving soon, and he's never been defeated. He took out Napoleon and Hitler in Russia, and he'll be responsible for the humanitarian crisis that will accompany him.
I have seen and read different accounts of what’s happening.
How much student debt does Quintin have?
Another propaganda piece from FR's Oriental Despot coalition telling us the tired BS that Russia invaded because Ukraine was about to be made a member of NATO.
Not even the Russians use it anymore, having moved on to other unhinged BS like bioweapons delivered via trained pigeon or whatnot.
Russia can win but it will need to expel every Ukie from the areas it controls. Otherwise it will be faced eith an ongoing guerilla war but with high tech weaponry.
90% of the Ukrainian population in polls believes that their victory is inevitable. Vast majority of Ukrainian discourse at this point is clowning the Russians on how stupid and worthless they are. There have been no significant gains by the Russians in the past month, only continual bombardment by HIMARs, despite constant promises and predictions of the imminent defeat of Ukraine by Russian propagandists since day 1.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s reserves—which include more than a million people at this point—are either already ready or soon will be by the end of this month, which even Russian military observers like the infamous Igor Strelkov says means Russia will ultimately lose the war due to lack of manpower.
Unless Russia calls for WW2 levels of conscription or takes up North Korea’s offer to accept 100,000 NORK soldiers, their loss is inevitable.
RE: I have seen and read different accounts of what’s happening.
That doesn’t answer my question. Share with us the account that tells us Russia will win.
RE: Unless Russia calls for WW2 levels of conscription or takes up North Korea’s offer to accept 100,000 NORK soldiers
Where are you getting this information regarding the NORKS signing up to fight in Ukraine for Putin?
What advantage does Kim Jong Un get in doing this?
We’ll see.
The Oligarchs here and in Ukraine have stuffed their pockets with billions of dollars and will let things take their course.
NATO is going to be more concerned with their people staying warm this winter and preventing their industries from collapsing due to balancing their energy demands between the people and industry.
Ukraine is basically going to be on its own. IMO
The Oligarchs here and in Ukraine have stuffed their pockets with billions of dollars and will let things take their course.
NATO is going to be more concerned with their people staying warm this winter and preventing their industries from collapsing due to balancing their energy demands between the people and industry.
Ukraine is basically going to be on its own. IMO
We saw what the Chinese could do when they were threatening to blow up Pelosi: absolutely f*** all.
All they can do is ride out their clunky tanks shooting out billows of smoke and looking like absolute trash compared to our stuff, and make threats, but the Chinese are as dysfunctional and worthless as the Russians with the same shitty equipment due to institutional corruption and just low IQ in general.
So much for Han/Slavic supremacy that we always hear from these freaks.
LOL. This piece would do Baghdad Bob proud.
A quarter of Britons will not be able to pay their electricity bills in October when the British energy regulator Ofgem raises their prices again, according to a study published on the Citizens Advice website.
In July, Russia announced it was cutting gas to Germany and Europe by another 20%.
On Tuesday natural gas prices reached a new record high in Europe. And Russia announced up to a 60% price increase in the coming cold weather months.
And now electricity prices hit €500/MWh for 1st time ever.
The electricity prices for 2023 are already at a new record.
Russia is retaliating against Germany for supporting Ukraine. And it’s starting to hurt.
Evidently, and he has no grasp of the history or the facts. The article is a waste of pixels.
Russian State Media is making the claim the NORKs are offering troops, though Russian media might just be lying about it like they lie about everything else:
https://nypost.com/2022/08/05/russian-state-tv-north-korea-offers-kremlin-100000-troops/
Which is funny, because the Germans, being the usual commie retards that they are, have deliberately been slow walking all aid. Promising with one hand, then delaying or outright denying with the other, while promoting the Russkie POV in the EU and NATO.
Germans are notoriously anti-American and Pro-Russia.
And North Korea and Iran.
India will buy Russian gas/oil.
India and China will buy Russian gas/oil at a heavy discount. The Russians can’t afford to cut off supply to zero either since they have nothing else to export other than vodka and crime.
FR’s oriental despot? WTF?
I’m quoting the director of the CIA. Maybe you wish to address that, vs. talking about pigeons.
Saigon is lovely in December.
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