Posted on 06/19/2022 8:33:29 PM PDT by blam
A strange narrative of “defeated inflation” is circulating in the mainstream in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s recent 75bps interest rate hike, but we’ve seen this kind of false optimism from the Fed and the media before. Economists calling for a deflationary reaction might be holding their breath for a while as price inflation continues to climb for many months to come. This consequence is reinforced by the decline in foreign investment in US Treasury bonds.
Higher interest rates and the promise of increasing yields have not been enough to lure outside investors into treasury markets, with treasuries now facing the worst bond market collapse in half a century. With the yield curve inverting once again, long term bonds are coming under scrutiny and the question now is: How will the US government pay off its exponential debts without ongoing stimulus from the Fed and an ever increasing balance sheet?
More printing means more price inflation, but no printing also means more price inflation.
This uncertainty has led China to dump US Treasuries to the lowest level in 12 years, and Japan, once a stalwart pillar of US investment, is cutting their holdings as well. Arguments can be made that this is part of molding currency markets to artificially increase or decrease exchange rates, but regardless of the reason, the decline in US treasuries along with the ongoing decline in the US dollar as the world reserve currency leads to one thing: More inflation.
Overseas dollar holdings are in the tens of trillions. Estimates suggest that around 60% to 75% of all dollars are held in overseas coffers for use in international trade. Failing US bonds indicate a trend towards a decline in dollar usage. The end result would eventually be the reverse flow of dollars back into the US, causing even more inflation than we already have.
The Fed’s 75bps rate hike is a drop in the bucket compared to what will be needed to slow the inflationary/stagflationary crisis. Yield curve inversions can be a sign of coming recession, but not necessarily an end to price inflation. Yet, mainstream economists are already predicting deflation back to balance? This seems to be another disinformation campaign much like the “inflation is transitory” narrative of the past two years, which even Janet Yellen now admits was utterly wrong. The reaction of foreign creditors does not suggest an end to inflation; in fact, it indicates the opposite.
“Higher interest rates and the promise of increasing yields have not been enough to lure outside investors into treasury markets”
There won’t be a big rush into treasuries until the rates increases come to an end. Why would anyone get excited about lets say a 5 year note today when in 6 months from now you could get a higher yield? Buy today and you are holding a capital loss until rates go back down.
They are dumping Treasuries because value will keep going down as rates increase. Sell before it goes lower.
No worries, when FED reaches upper limit of interest rates, foreigners will buy treasuries.
This will only increase interest rates
In the Carter years bond buyers fed up with inflation started acting in concert and selling bonds when they didn’t like the money supply numbers. The financial press tagged them “bond vigilantes”.
The bond vigilantes control more bonds and wield more firepower than the Fed if they decide to act in concert. It sounds like China and Japan could be reviving that practice.
I don’t know why anyone would agree to buy bonds yielding less than the inflation rate.
Neither the Fed nor the Treasury control long rates. Those rates are determined in the secondary market by whatever investors are willing to pay.
So instead of attacking the dunderheads in govt over inflation the press deflected attention to the the bond buters by attacking them.
Sounds about right.
I’m surprised that bond buyers haven’t already been demanding more than the inflation rate. Eventually they will, a “normal yield” plus the inflation rate.
The Fed and bond buyers alone can’t stop inflation. We also need a President who isn’t at war with energy producers and with domestic manufacturers.
18% would seem about the right rate to start buying.
The only investor who would do this intelligently is one who operates in a foreign currency and expects that currency to decline in value faster than the U.S. dollar does. A negative effective return in U.S. dollars could still be an attractive yield in yen, euros, yuan, rubles, etc.
Because they’ve no better place to put their money.
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