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US Recession Odds At 71.7%, NASDAQ Tanks -4%, Fed Dots Plot Sags (I Couldn’t Sleep At All Last Night)
Confounded Interest ^ | 06/16/2022 | Anthony B. Sanders

Posted on 06/16/2022 9:15:47 AM PDT by Browns Ultra Fan

I couldn’t sleep at all last night … after The Fed cranked up their target rate 75 basis points.

The odds of a recession grew to 71.7% as The Fed hikes rates.

The NASDAQ index tanked -4% today on the fallout from yesterday’s Fed actions.

Do I detect a trend in The Fed’s latest Dot Plot??

So, will The Fed continue to go head-over-heels on monetary tightening?

(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Food; Government; Politics
KEYWORDS: biden; blogpimp; fed; recession; stockmarket; stocks
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To: Browns Ultra Fan

One just might presume that Oil! prices are being soap-sold to Slow Joe as a ‘good thing’, precisely because they are NOT a ‘good thing’, and so after taking a beating in November, an electoral WIPEOUT, whether or not Old Joe sees the error of his ways, he will be invited by his own party to LEAVE.


21 posted on 06/16/2022 9:37:53 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (Enjoy the parade of Putlim Soviet c!rclejerkers lining up for the Tedlim-style putsch)
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To: blackdog

The inflation caused by higher oil is tiny compared to the inflation caused BY FLOODING THE USA’s ECONOMY WITH $4T over the last 2 1/2 years.


22 posted on 06/16/2022 9:39:08 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: frogjerk

No, we dodged the recession bullet as the GDP came in at 0.0%, obviously NOT a negative number.

< /BS accounting>


23 posted on 06/16/2022 9:42:06 AM PDT by Aevery_Freeman (Beware the coming TRUMPster Fire!)
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To: Browns Ultra Fan

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/11/the-long-story-of-us-debt-from-1790-to-2011-in-1-little-chart/265185/

This is a chart from The Atlantic showing federal debt as a percent of the economy.

What one notices outside of wars (American Revolution, War of 1812, Civil War) federal debt was a mere fraction of the total economic output.

During and after WWI it never went back to levels normal for the first century and a half or so of American history.

The only big change I can think of was the creation of the Federal Reserve. After it was created our debt was always higher.


24 posted on 06/16/2022 9:43:18 AM PDT by packagingguy
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To: Aevery_Freeman

What would be the odds of a three place number in ten based math coming in at 0.00%...???? And not one squint at that from the press or media.


25 posted on 06/16/2022 9:47:38 AM PDT by blackdog (Cooler King Joe, killing a winning nation every day. )
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To: DoodleDawg
It would be very hard to prevent a recession now.

So my question is how would you prevent it and has there ever been a "soft landing" historically with this level of inflation? I don't think so.

26 posted on 06/16/2022 9:51:45 AM PDT by frogjerk (I will not do business with fascists)
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To: frogjerk

Lying about the GDP.


27 posted on 06/16/2022 9:53:07 AM PDT by for-q-clinton (Cancel Culture IS fascism...Let's start calling it that!)
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To: DoodleDawg
It would be very hard to prevent a recession now. The only question is how deep.

And how long.

28 posted on 06/16/2022 9:55:15 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: frogjerk

“What could possibly happen to prevent it? A serious question.“

They will use every trick to rig the numbers so it does not technically qualify as a recession. They removed gas and food from the inflation calculation and MSM let them. The same will happen here. It may work for awhile. Past the midterms?
Maybe.


29 posted on 06/16/2022 9:56:37 AM PDT by gibsonguy
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To: adorno
What needs to occur, which the Biden administration won’t do, is to open up the spigots and start producing more oil to get the American economy

This will not prevent a recession because the printing of money and the spending by the government will not be abated. Oil price is just one part of price spikes (not inflation).

"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced ONLY by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output. "(Dr. Friedman).

30 posted on 06/16/2022 9:58:57 AM PDT by frogjerk (I will not do business with fascists)
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To: 1Old Pro
The only question is how deep. And how long.

That's what she said.

31 posted on 06/16/2022 10:00:26 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: frogjerk
So my question is how would you prevent it and has there ever been a "soft landing" historically with this level of inflation?

I honestly think there is nothing that can be done to prevent it. And since a recession is defined as several consecutive quarters of negative growth then we may not have even started it yet. As to the kind of landing, this situation is so different from past recessions that I wouldn't even want to speculate.

32 posted on 06/16/2022 10:04:56 AM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: Whenifhow; null and void; aragorn; EnigmaticAnomaly; kalee; Kale; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; bgill; ...

p


33 posted on 06/16/2022 10:13:02 AM PDT by bitt ( <img src=' 'width=50%> )
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To: blackdog

Excellent point.


34 posted on 06/16/2022 10:15:37 AM PDT by Aevery_Freeman (Beware the coming TRUMPster Fire!)
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To: frogjerk

Once the $1.9 trillion in stimulus was printed, Putin went to war, xiden further crushed the economy with the embargo, oil went through the roof with no prospect of relief to the industry.... RECESSION is a foregone conclusion and that will be the best of it.

There was nothing stopping this from the time xiden was elected. We all should have known that. I was stupid, I didn’t want to pay the taxes on the gains and thought I was prepared to ride it out but never thought it would get this bad. S&P at 4,000 and dow at 31,000 was where I thought it would settle. Now I just would not say. Stating the obvious we are in the 20% down range, some say it doesn’t end until 30% and others don’t say. We are down nearly 11% from a year ago.


35 posted on 06/16/2022 10:34:43 AM PDT by Sequoyah101 (Politicians are only marginally good at one thing, being politicians. Otherwise they are fools.)
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To: central_va

Who says it won’t be?

Yeah, I’m not seeing anything but down.


36 posted on 06/16/2022 10:35:24 AM PDT by Sequoyah101 (Politicians are only marginally good at one thing, being politicians. Otherwise they are fools.)
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To: blackdog

That is the most of it. The outlook is based on the fact of a war on oil and this bunch of clowns playing it for every inch they can get too make it worse.

Until that changes or the demand burns down this will go on. When demand burns down the economy goes with it. You can’t take away the oars to the boat without some other means of propulsion. OIL runs the world. Without a good outlook for oil, and there isn’t one, we are dead in the water. Not only does it take a long time to change the oil outlook there is no other viable pathway. These asses are driving us into the stone age again. People better get that but I’m fearing it is too late to not have another 10 or more years of disaster even if the digging out were to start today.

We have seen this show before. Clintoon did it to us while we were resting on the laurels of the last oil boom that got production up. It began in ‘98 and reached peak damage in ‘08. Some reasons were different the outcome is the same. Things got better until ‘14/’15 when dumbo crashed oil prices and set this up. Covid pushed it along and xiden kicked it over the cliff.


37 posted on 06/16/2022 10:43:08 AM PDT by Sequoyah101 (Politicians are only marginally good at one thing, being politicians. Otherwise they are fools.)
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To: Browns Ultra Fan
Personal Savings rate tanking. And no doubt credit card balances are increasing,


38 posted on 06/16/2022 11:10:00 AM PDT by kabar
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To: central_va

Not so fast.


39 posted on 06/16/2022 11:10:50 AM PDT by kabar
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To: Browns Ultra Fan

We already in recession and fast tracking to depression. Bet.


40 posted on 06/16/2022 11:13:01 AM PDT by cranked
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