Posted on 06/10/2022 10:39:54 AM PDT by jimjohn
This is going out mainly to the truckers out there, but everyone should start thinking about this: Is there a certain point – a price per gallon if you will, where the wheels start falling off the supply chains, the economy, etc. to the point of no return?
A few weeks ago, I was talking with friends both on and offline; trying to calculate a number in which owner-operators and small fleets simply could no longer afford to operate under the current D.O.T. rules. If/When that happens, by logic, we assume one of more the following would take place:
1. Independent drivers (and small fleets) simply stop driving as they required compensation could no longer compete with other fleet drivers. Mind you, the stats say independents are only 9% of the trucking workforce. But along with the smaller fleets, they haul enough tonnage to make a major difference.
2. Work stoppage actions to force profitable compensation. Last thing we need during on-going supply chain issues.
3. Drivers are forced to ignore D.O.T. rules to maintain profitability.
4. Supply lines get limited to those that can make payment – which will have a domino effect to hurt the poorer, urban areas first, followed by suburban areas.
Without going through all the math, we came up with a number of about $7.50 a gallon for diesel. This number will fluctuate based on the local economy. If there is sudden diesel supply shortage (read: someone or something blows up another diesel refinery), that number will drop. Regardless, this number listed above we predict will set off a chain of events (with emphasis on #4).
Yes, just diesel. I’m not even talking about the price for regular unleaded. Remember, it takes diesel to get unleaded to your local gas pump. And if you find this black pill is hard to swallow, allow me to add a few elements to help it go down easier:
* expected violence upon official abortion ruling (and/or another "Summer of Love")
* full throated invasion into our southern border
* lack of fertilizer for the next harvest (read: food shortages)
* the government’s next attempt at lockdowns before November’s election
* this administration’s refusal to look at the geo-political reality here and around the world.
Now, to be clear: I see NOTHING preventing enough upheavals in the next 4-5 months to prevent a complete breakdown of society as we know it (a.k.a The Purge: When Life Imitates Art – Film at 11). That is, unless there is an abrupt and major course correction by state and local governments, as well as the people themselves. (Anyone see that on the horizon? Be honest.)
I believe more than enough folks have been ‘red pilled’. All it takes is the next fill-up at the gas station. Complaining, and merely speculating about ‘the worst is yet to come’ in non-productive, unless we are driving toward solutions.
So the question comes back to: at what number (or price tag) should we as Real Americans throw our hands up in the air and say to ourselves “It’s been real – we had a nice 246 year run”, and start implementing our own Great Reset, before it’s done for us (and to us)?
“which will have a domino effect to hurt the poorer, urban areas first, followed by suburban areas.”
As long as Democrats starve, I don’t care.
I have about 9 mo. of <$4.50 Diesel in the Strategic Reserve for putting about town.
When It’s gone, who knows what I’ll be doing.
Price is always the equalizer between supply and demand.
Businesses will buy oil at any price so long as they can pass on the cost.
At some point a typical retail store will shutdown when the cost to heat or air-condition their building cannot be recovered.
A tipping point has been reached here in rural Missouri. I run along a state highway just outside of town. Last summer, to help the miles go by, I would count how many vehicles passed me in 30 minutes (7 p.m.). It was usually 175-200. My runs for the past few months — only 60-80 vehicles. It’s obvious that people are cutting way back on their driving.
Here is what I think are the types of things that will happen:
-Biden will declare an energy emergency
-Democratic states will declare energy lockdowns - companies cannot require people to work in offices unless the job requires physical presence.
-A bipartisan emergency trucking bill will passed changing DOT rules and providing a government credit for diesel up to a certain amount per mile.
-People will scam the diesel allowance
-The energy lockdowns will spread to a requirement to reduce flights by the FAA
-Some states or municipalities will have only essential business days - will be much like COVID lockdowns in that regard.
-All medical will go back to remote where possible
-Oil execs will be grilled everyday in October about gouging by Democrats in Congress.
-Vote by mail will be required without proof of ID in many states because women and minorities are disproportionately impacted by the energy crisis.
etc.
Diesel price typically drops in the summer and rises in the fall when people with oil heat fill their tanks. Typically ...
Crap! I left out PRICE CONTROLS, leading to shortages and long lines. Odd/Even purchase days too, based on some form of license plate registration.
I think we are almost there. People will drive less. Tourist industries will suffer. People are not going to drive to the beach for the 4th of July holiday. That will reduce the pressure on prices so it'll reach equilibrium soon.
I’m 60. During the Carter years, it was painful but you never felt like ol’ Jimmy was doing it on purpose. He was just incompetent. Biden has made it clear this is all purposeful with his “climate” agenda, open borders and his obvious lack of concern about it all.
when people can’t afford it anymore and have to quit driving...
no sales, and the price will come down, not before
Well you have to destroy something before you can Build Back Better. Welcome to the Great Reset. You'll own nothing and be happy
You'll own nothing, and you'll live a "psychologically rich life." (in their beloved Metaverse)
https://tessa.substack.com/p/wef-psychological-richness
Obama, Rice, Jarret, Soros and many many others, including some repubs, want a world government aka NWO. What's standing in their way? The USA and to some degree, Russia. A sovereign Russia that is. That's why they talk of regime change in RU. They're hoping they can get a WEF stooge in there. Talks of Finland and Sweden joining NATO. The Prime Ministers of both are WEF stooges. Biden just tried to give the WHO power over the US when it comes to plandemics. UN/WHO/WEF/NATO = the organizational structure of the NWO.
If they can wreck the economy of the US enough, you'll get a mass migration towards and into the cities. Those $12-16/hour jobs with 20-30 mile commute in rural areas won't cut it. Those trucks will still roll into the cities but rural deliveries will be unsustainable.
I had a hen I quit feeding because the hawks had gotten the rest so I figured she wasn’t long for this world. She’s still here two years later and laid eggs the whole time without layer crumbles. Just foraging.
“An economy runs on energy just like your body runs on blood. Energy inflation affects everything else, because it gets passed on. I think the tipping point will be consumers buying less because prices have gone up so much.”
Correct. When they stop buying here comes recession if not depression.
Trucks will continue to roll as long as it’s profitable.
Aka if shippers are paying the higher prices no reason to park the truck.
I think most people are ready now but know that it would be a foolish suicide without mass uprising.
I think everybody is waiting and watching for the first domino.
It falls apart when no one buys the grapefruit at the store.
But think how much safer we will all be with banning “ghost guns” and standard capacity magazines. Priorities...
As an independent owner operator, my rates have risen to account for the fuel prices. My fuel cost per mile has risen to $1.20 vs $0.53 under Trump. The fuel surcharge that my customers now pay is 46% of the load rate.
A $1,000 load now costs just under $1,500.
My two week fuel bill has gone from $2,400 during the Trump years to average of $5,100 now. Annual fuel costs are over $100,000 now.
THAT IS FOR ONE TRUCK.
Biden said today 9k oil leases and oil companies are choosing not to drill.
Not true, 2200 leases are currently in court. Oil companies have to fight cities, towns, counties and environmentalists to get the ok to drill.
Secondly, just because you have a lease to drill doesn’t mean you can drill right away. Oil companies waiting for oil pipes, supplies, and of course, shortage of workers.
If oil company has a lease for a big plot of land and they drill one place on that property and no oil, they will not begin drilling in another spot until it is financial smart to do so as they are taking chance that well will be dry as well.
Companies often need to have separate permits secured for multiple well sites before they can bring in an oil rig. But just because the government approves the permits doesn’t guarantee the well will produce oil and gas, as some never do. This means approved permits may go unused.
Sure wish Republicans would start stating these facts every time Biden lies about the 9K leases.
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